CES 2009: Blu-ray's continued struggles and the ramping ascendancy of online

Edn: Last year's most popular Electronic News newsletter-referenced writeup, so I've heard, was my CES 2008 piece that came hot on the heels of Warner's decision to go Blu-ray-exclusive (and predicted a month-later inevitable conclusion that was also popular with online readers). The following prophetic paragraphs sum up my mildly ;-) controversial analysis:

I'm still betting that Blu-ray's seeming eventual victory will end up being a hollow one. Both camps have splurged a tremendous amount of money to date: in technology development and manufacturing ramp, in player hardware and software development, in player production ramp, in movie-studio "financial accommodations," and in retailer and end-user promotional campaigns. How long, and at what equipment and media-run-rate assumption, will it take for Sony and its partners to recoup this substantial upfront loss? Will they ever?

Am I psychic, psychotic, or maybe a bit of both? I'll leave you to decide the answer to that one. Nonetheless, where do we stand one year later?

[thereapersson]

Another anti-Blu-Ray article. I was actually wondering if something was wrong with N4G, because I haven't seen one of these in hours.

[Lucreto]

You are complaining about it but you are approving it what is us with that.

[thereapersson]

I divided by zero! :)

[Graphics Whore]

You approved it, best not to say anything.

[anh_duong]

sixty percent of the people i work with now own blu-ray players.

it seems the more successful blu-ray players become the more of the stupid articles i read. can't we just stop approving articles like these because they are getting tedious.

[eagle21]

Blu-ray will always dominate DD and soon DVD in Japan. These idiots think we care about their lame articles that only seem to hurt DD cause the information for DD is irrelevant to 99.6% of the market.

DD = fail. Renting DD is the only hope for growth. Physical media will always dominate!

[Danja]

Blu Ray market share is now at 16%...DD market share is now at like .04%....yup it's really ascending rapidly..

[Milky Joe]

Blu-Ray is selling better than DVD did; Blu-Ray is doomed...

WHO DO I BELIEVE???

[InMyOpinion]

So some of you guys only approve stuff when you like the contents of the article? And if you don't like it you report it, even if it's following the guidelines perfectly.

thereapersson shows that he's unbiased in his approvals.

[Nineball2112]

Not only that, but they rate the submission as Not Good as well.

I don't agree with the author's conclusion, but again... for the umpteenth time... it's newsworthy.

People are free to flag it as "Lame", since that's their opinion, but to rate the submission as "Not Good" is LAME.

It's within N4G guidelines... *sigh*

[SL1M DADDY]

I love reading more and more of the crap that rolls into N4G about how BD is going to fail.

Heck, we all know that just because BD is tracking sales faster than DVD did when it was released there is no way that BD will be any bit as successfull...

/sarcasm

[thebudgetgamer]

http://www.videobusiness.co...
http://www.engadgethd.com/2...
http://www.gamerscircle.net...

:) edit : and i forgot disney backing blu-ray
http://disney.go.com/disney...

dooooooooomed lol

[AriesFury]

No, there was another one earlier, I believe. So, either by the beginning of the day until the end, there will all way be some anti-blu ray article to be posted.

[Dread]

anyone here actually read the article before commenting?

they made some valid points and i do not think it is anti-blue ray. perhaps you should read it...

peace

[anh_duong]

jenzo it has got nothing to do with censorship it's to do with the quality of journalism. this article was written by an amateur and is anything but news since it biased and ignores the relevant facts.

for example, do you get sick of rrod articles? well i believe the rrod is now fixed so i never comment on them. and this is why i bought an xbox. if we approve every shoddy article (this being one of them) then this website will get overrun with pointless news that does nobody any favours. it just antagonizes people and creates hate.

n4g has got to stop some of these inflammatory posts that are only designed to create tension.

[prowiew]

What I like about the article is the last part were it talks about the roku player. Im very tempted to buying this thing. Netflix and Amazon movies. Good stuff.

[Lucreto]

Its a lame article. Most of the points that are made have been disproven and the rest he uses some minor issues.

DD will be good for some yes but until they can get it look like Blu-ray it will not interest me. DD is far more restictive then people think. To me it is like buying out of date meat just because it is cheaper.

[omega7]

DD revenues have actually gone down from 0.5% in June to 0.3% in december
It is something that can replace renting but a few rent movies and movies are not even at 1080p or even 720p

It is something that will never take off as no one rents movies but purchases it

[Cajun Chicken]

I'll give it 15.

[P4KY B]

Mininova and The Pirate Bay are proof that millions of people love DD.

[silvacrest]

you do realize that those millions love it because its FREE albeit illegal but the chance of prosecution is minimal

dont expect the same thing IF DD ever became embraced by major film studios

[No]

Why did i buy a blu-ray player WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY?

[omega7]

DD is a dead format just like HD DVD

it makes up 0.3% of total movie sales and will never take off in 100 years

[rucky]

Because you were once smart then got hit in the head and became retarded.

[Sharingan_no_Kakashi]

Doesn't matter. You made the right choice :). People are just looking for hits and the best way to do that is to bash bluray or bash sony. For goodness sake it just won the freaking format war last year. If ppl expect it to take flight and just start zooming past the standard format in sales this soon then they're dumb. All analysts say that bluray will do fine and it will. Dark Knight on bluray ftw.

[d2dahoopa]

Im Amazed that the Flame bait article hasn't started anything yet.

[Unicron]

Why do none of these "articles" ever seem to bring up the incredible uphill battle and many, MANY obstacles digital distribution needs to overcome to be the "main form of media?"

DD will be a nice ALTERNATIVE for a while, nothing more. And I still don't get why people WANT a format to fail, when Dark Knight is oh so good.

[Graphics Whore]

From 0.5% to 0.3% usage sure is ramping up ascendancy.

[rucky]

Do American "analyst" really think America is the only market in the world? If there's one place that should be pushing DD, ironically should be Japan. They're the only ones there having non-restrictive broadband speeds.

[Max Power]

especially with blu-ray having about 50% adoption rate (in japan).

[Ghoul]

well yes thats te main problem with america they believe they are the center of the world ....

[BlackCountryBob]

What the hell is wrong with the vision of these people who continue to peddle the idea that upscaled DVD looks almost as good as BluRay. It just doesn't, its not a horrid picture but there is a very easy to see difference and anyone who has seen a BluRay and is not either a moron or blind can tell from a mile off.

[Expy]

Blu-Ray is dominating in comparison to DVD back in the VHS days. ON top of that, with Sony pushing both its HDTVs and Blu-Ray players (and PS3) with eventual price drops there will be nothing to stop Blu-Ray from taking over.

In a materialistic world, there is little to no chance that DD will win over hard-copy.

[zalifer]

"ramping ascendancy"

I mean come on, at least use real terms in your unreasoned, unresearched, console biased articles.

[Ryuk]

Forget blue ray! Its all about that VHS!!

[ultimolu]

...LOL!

Please give it up DVD fanatics.

[T-Baggins]

Wow. some people are so blind its ridicules, what do these people do all day because there obviously not reading about blu-ray and how its kicking a$$.

[BlazinEurasian]

http://www.pcworld.com/arti...

400% increase over a year ago during holiday sales.

[DJ]

Digital downloads still only represent 0.3% of overall sales and dropping, with Blu-ray at 16% and rising. If anything, it looks like Digital Distribution is going to have a tough time, specifically because it is not a singular format.

[dcbronco]

This will all work itself out in the next year or so. Just like the economy. They should just come out and say the fundamentals of the Blu-ray economy are strong.

[Axe99]

@ Dread

They made a _small_ number of valid points, but then went onto make a large number of poor, misleading ones. The one I find most entertaining is the continued insistence that DVD upscaling is equivalent. That is the logical equivalent of saying that you don't need a 2.1 Megapixel still camera (Blu-Ray resolution), a 0.3 Megapixel (DVD resolution) will do and we can upscale it all in photoshop and it'll look just the same. Anyone who has any experience with upscaling (or, indeed, owns a Blu-Ray player and a good DVD upscaler and doesn't have eyesight difficulties) can tell you that if the detail in the picture isn't there, no amount of "upscaling" will put it back!

I was also entertained by the PS3 sales falling off a cliff, dismissing Blu-Ray penetration in Europe due to limited broadband penetration (given the higher Blu-Ray penetration in Japan, one of the best-broadbanded places in the world) and numerous other ridiculous statements. It is poorly argued and supported to the point of misinformation.

[Lumbo]

Also add that the point about Europe having less broadband availability than the US is clearly false. All of western Europe is covered with DSL lines with 6mbit minimum, namely Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Denmark. The UK is also covered at least as good as the US and Sweden even has a widespread 100mbit coverage. There are more households with broadband access in Europe than in the US.

The author is simply BITTER that all of his predictions from the last CES proved to be wrong, and now he spins reality until it seemingly fits his bad predictions.

[funkysolo]

Seriously, how many options do we have for 1080p, HDdts? There is only one option. People that's been buying blu ray will continue to buy blu ray, stupid people that don't know crap will continue to write blu ray is dead. It doesn't take a brainiac to figure out blu ray is the only option for true HD, no comptetion, upscale dvd is not HD, HD cable is not true HD.