Micheal Pachter Is Pessimistic About Nintendo Switch's Longterm Success

The Nintendo Switch has been a major success for Nintendo so far, and has become their fastest selling home console of all time

[FallenAngel1984]

Well if 3DS can last 6.5 years going on 7 years next Feb then Switch should do relatively quite well in the long term

[bluefox755]

That discounts the decreasing relevance of portable game consoles. As smart phones become better, they eat into the portable console market. Most people don't want to carry around 2 pieces of hardware.

[DarXyde]

Some say exclusives don't drive sales, but I would say Nintendo's are absolutely a selling point for their hardware.

I don't know how handhelds will fair going forward but Switch is something of an anomaly. As long as they're pushing games that gamers old and new recognize and love (Mario, Zelda, Metroid, Pokemon) I have a hard time believing it won't be successful in the long run. Say what you will, despite a pretty bad announcement back in January, the device has really hit the ground running, even in Japan. That's great for people who love Japanese games because that'll inevitably lead to Sony and Nintendo working together (albeit competitively) to revitalize the Japanese market.

[NotoriousWhiz]

The gamers that prefer controllers will always carry around at least 2 pieces of hardware.

[DivineAssault]

PS4 caught up with the 3DS in half the time.. Im not saying the switch is doomed but its possible the momentum dies rather quickly if the games and availability arent there

[feraldrgn]

3DS wasn't doing very well until they dropped the price.

[OtakuDJK1NG-Rory]

and that was only 6 months after launch. It been a success for over 6 years

[TekoIie]

Very true. But we're seeing the Switch do pretty well with a price that people criticised as too high pre-launch.

[Tapani]

I'm pessimistic about Michael Pachter's longterm success.

[FallenAngel1984]

@ blue

You seem to be neglecting that A.) Even with the increasing mobile market 3DS still sold close to 70 million and B.) NS isn't exclusively a handheld system, it's a hybrid.

@ Divine

NS obviously isn't going to outsell or outlast PS4, but it clearly isn't going to dramatically drop off anytime soon.

@ fer

And NS is doing even better than 3DS in the same timeframe without a price cut.

[DialgaMarine]

But it's still fallen behind Wii and DS in aligned launch sales. It was never ahead of PS4.

[PhoenixUp]

One question I have is how would Nintendo react when Sony & Microsoft release their respective 9th gen consoles. Would Nintendo continue to trudge on with NS as its main system or would it get sidelined by Nintendo's next system.

I guess what really matters is how successful NS turns out to be in the long term.

[Erik7357]

Well if 9th gen from Microsoft or Sony isn't a portable gaming device I think Nintendo won't give a damn.

Back to topic, I think switch will be great in long term. We have many more heavy hitters like Metroid and Pokemon easily 3 years + into it's life cycle

[MrFisher21]

I can already play my PS4 on my phone anywhere in the world with the Remote Play app. 1080p output. And it looks better on my phone then the Switch. And I mount my phone to my DS4. The switch was irrelevant before it even came out. So what is the big deal about it being portable??

[TekoIie]

@MrFisher21

Forgive me if I'm extremely sceptical of the "anywhere in the world" part of that.

Never had your phone signal drop before?

[The 10th Rider]

If I were Nintendo and I found myself in that situation, I would simply counter with an aggressive price cut.

We're in a bit of a weird spot right now with the jump to 4K. 4K uses up so much GPU power that if next gen goes for native 4K and launches in two years, it won't have much more power in the GPU than the Xbox One X does unless the consoles cost over $500. If next gen comes along in two years at $500 it'll probably have better ram, a slightly more powerful GPU, and a significantly better CPU. Best case scenario they launch a 1080p console for $400 and a 4K console for $600. That allows the to push the GPU without using it all for 4K, unless people want to pay a premium price for the 4K version of the console.

Now imagine if at the same time the Switch got a hardware revision priced at $250 with a bundled game. Better battery, slightly larger and better screen, etc. Also by then Nintendo will likely have sold 20-30 million consoles. Even if it's not getting AAA third party games it'll likely be getting some B-game and indie support in addition to Nintendo's excellent first party support. Pokemon, Metroid Prime, No More Heroes, Fire Emblem, and plenty of other big games will be out or on their way to the console. Even though it wouldn't be able to compete with the PS5/Xbox2 the fact that it'd be half the price of the other consoles would keep it as an attractive second option, especially since it will have plenty of exclusives and it works as a handheld. They should be able to ride that out another few years and at the end they shouldn't have any trouble selling 30+ million.

[Liqu1d]

If the Switch is successful long term then I think they'll stick with the hybrid design. The lack of power could be a issue when Sony & MS release their 9th gen systems.

[DarkKaine]

It's already facing issues with 8th generation games..

[ninsigma]

We'll see. So far it has a a good variety of exclusive games that will appeal to different gamers and this should be running into next year. Beyond that it'll be interesting to see how it does.

[fonger08]

Michael Patcher, failing to predict Nintendos demise since 2006

[Cobra951]

Why would he predict something we all know isn't going to happen? Nintendo has so much capital that they could launch several failed consoles in a row, and still stay afloat. But the Switch isn't a failure, is it? It's "their fastest selling home console of all time". The Wii made a ton of money for them too, before it fizzled out. The Wii U is their only recent overall failure.

[MrFisher21]

That comment basically states how Nintendo can afford to keep messing up due to still recieving our money. Not a good argument.

[Prince_TFK]

MrFisher21

As far as I know they had only messed one console up, the WiiU. The Wii made them money. The 3ds made them money. And now the Switch is seemingly a runaway success for them. So I don't know where your notion of Nintendo "keep messing up" come from.

Cobra was just making some example about how much money Nintendo has, and no way they will go out of business as most people on N4G want them to.

[DialgaMarine]

Switch was their fastest selling home console in NPD at launch. Since then it has fallen heavily behind the Wii. No, it's stock issues either; if any console had legitimate stock issues, it was the Wii.

[Officialxandr]

Michael Patcher, failing to predict virtually anything since ever.

[fonger08]

Lol very true

[Razzer]

From the same guy who said The Order would sell 5 million copies.

http://gamingbolt.com/pacht...

[superchiller]

Why would you link to a gamingbolt article? That site is cancer.

[Scroticus]

So is Pachter. Yet here we are.

[Bjorn-c-blocker]

This is awesome. Patcher should never be listened to.

[Elda]

Folks would be better off paying this man no mind.

[iofhua]

When Ninty releases their new Pokemon on Switch it's going to cement the demand for it.

Remember game boy? Cruddy hardware, horrid sound, monochrome screen. It released in 1989 and was produced up until 2003. Why was it so long lived, especially when it competed against handhelds like Sega Game Gear, which had color and better graphics? (in fact, the game boy outlived the game gear. Game gear released in 1990 and discontinued in 1997)

Pokemon. Pokemon Red and Blue breathed new life into the game boy and it sold millions of units late in it's life just because Pokemon became a sensation that nobody could have predicted.

Despite whatever hardware it's devices have, Nintendo thrives on it's exclusive IP's like no other game company can.

[The 10th Rider]

Imagine if Animal Crossing launches next year, along with Fire Emblem. In 2019 we could get Pokemon and Metroid Prime, and in 2020 there'll be No More Heroes and possibly another Mario Kart. They'd be spreading out their heaviest hitting titles and coupling them with titles aimed at a more mature audience, which would help keep demand up for many different demographics.

[Prince_TFK]

Not to mention Kirby, Yoshi, Smash Bros, Star Fox, and (hopefully) Kid Icarus, Paper Mario, and sequel or remastered of the Wonderful 101. Man, Nintendo has so many IPs under their porfolio.

[ninsigma]

Yep, once Pokemon becomes exclusive to Switch, expect sales to skyrocket.

[OtakuDJK1NG-Rory]

It is. 3DS last Pokemon game will be Ultra Sun & Moon. Just like Fire Emblem Echoes is the last FE game on 3DS

[gamer7804]

its the wiiu all over again honestly, only thing it has going for it is that it stole the 3ds audience partially. in a year it won't have any 3rd party games hardly and just stuck w/ nintendo's first party to keep it alive.

[EddieNX]

Its nothing like the Wiiu, its not just a home console its fully portable and will have ALL of Nintendo's games. Its a 3DS and Wiiu combined and more.

[gamer7804]

its situation is similar to the wiiu is what i'm saying, the only reason its selling well right now is because its infringing on the 3ds audience and getting some of its sales since it hasn't been updated in forever.

Now nintendo needs to decide what to do with its 3ds, make a successor? or not?

Either way they slice is now, its still underpowered and without a proper party chat system which will keep it from getting may 3rd party games beyond single player indies. Devs are testing it now for sales but in a year from now i don't think it will be doing as well.

[EddieNX]

Sorry but no. It is the succesor to 3ds and Wiiu therefore you comparing it Wiiu is incorect, it is getting Pokemon , Wiiu did not, it is portable Wiiu is not. Its already on track to outsell 3DS let alone the Wiiu. 3DS didnt need that many AAA multiplat games to reach 70 mill, neither will Switch. Next.

[TheUndertaker85]

Except it is not a successor to 3DS/2DS. A fact that can be proven with 3DS/2DS still being on the market with new iterations being released after the launch of Switch. Wii U is the only Nintendo product that was replaced.

[ninsigma]

While I agree that it's disappointing that Nintendo have again gone down a route that will leave them largely ignored by the big 3RD party games, we have seen it's possible for them to succeed without them on past consoles. Whether they will succeed this time is unknown for now, we'll just have to wait and see but when you look at the lineup so far and for the rest of the year with big exclusive games like zelda, mario kart, splatoon 2, a unique new fighting IP arms, new 3D mario game oddysey as well as a sequal to a popular JRPG with xenoblade chronicles 2 and a new way to play mario with kingdom battle, it's looking pretty good. And that's not to mention next years title like pokemon and metroid which will be huge for the console as well as the smaller 3rd party games like Rime, sonic mania and forces, flipping death plus EA giving the switch a shot with fifa 18.

There are plenty of gripes I've had with the switch, the online nonsense being the worst of them but I do believe the Switch has set itself up well to succeed with its library of games.

[gamer7804]

it will do slightly better than the wiiu with titles like meteoroid and pokemon, but if you look at that list, its strikingly similar to wiiu's

[The 10th Rider]

@gamer7804,

Slightly better? If Nintendo can produce enough the Switch may outsell the Wii U in its first year on the market. Pretty much all estimates say the Switch will sell 10+ million in its first year and that's before Pokemon or Animal Crossing. The Wii U barely managed 14 million sales over four years.

[ninsigma]

You make a fair point and it's not like the idea that Nintendo relies on the same stuff all the time came out of thin air. However, the Switch is a better console than the WII U and while I obviously can't know what the outcome will be, I do think it'll do much better than its predecessor simply because the machine itself is more enticing than Wii u and will sell to more than just the Nintendo faithful.

[OtakuDJK1NG-Rory]

so did the Wii U sell 4.7m in 3 months?

Nope. The Wii U did 4.3m in one year. So no it's not another Wii U
And no the situation is not the same.
Wii U didn't get many KOEI Tecmo or Square Enix support.
It barely got more than two JRPG, missing numerous genres.
Nintendo took to long ti release games. And too many droughts

Yall need to let go of the fucking no western support = it will fail.

[Vegamyster]

I agree that 3rd party support probably won't be there other then sports/smaller games & the current online system but that is really where the similarities end. The Wii-U had a terrible name, overall useless gimmick that was hard to explain to the consumer, non existent marketing & ran into a game drought right after its launch. The Wii-U did get more 3rd party support at a launch but it was in the form of old 360/PS3 games, exclusive wise they're not comparable for the 1st year and it wouldn't surprise me if it outsold the total lifetime Wii-U sales by the end of the year.

[superchiller]

Switch is selling on hype and artificial shortages alone, once all that ends sales are going to tank hard, just like they did with the Wii U. As of now there is a very small selection of games available for it, with entire genres virtually absent, and not much coming in the future. Unless you simply must play the usual Mario, Zelda, and other Nintendo first party games, there is no reason to buy a Switch.

[TallonIV]

Artificial shortages? You have proof? I'll wait.

[MrFisher21]

Do you have proof that's it's not artificial?? I'll wait with ya....

[TheUndertaker85]

Like the recent story involving Switch displays which Nintendo couldn't have possibly seen coming even though Apple moved away from the same display company? Leaving Nintendo to find a new display provider which very likely will require them to upgrade the Switch display as they haven't paid out much of anything for their currently dated LCD displays?

I'm sure Nintendo isn't aware though. Then we can hear later about the difficulty of acquiring said screens as a reason why Nintendo is having production problems.

[Prince_TFK]

You asking for proof and you get disagree. This site is becoming more and more like a cancer.

[OtakuDJK1NG-Rory]

@MrFisher21 & superchiller
https://gamerant.com/ninten...

Google exist. Use it and stop being in denial.

[SlySouls]

The problem with Nintendo is that, while many of their first party games are fantastic, they can only come out so many times within the span of a console generation. And there's little third party support, so no AAA titles are filling in the gaps between those first party games. Thus the Switch is relegated to a lot of indie games that can be fun if you already HAVE the console, but won't make anyone decide to go out and get one.

[The 10th Rider]

Here you are again saying something is "selling" on artificial shortages. You literally cannot sell more of a product when there's shortages. Maybe you mean that demand for the Switch is high due to artificial shortages, but artificial shortages would PREVENT them from selling more in the here and now, it wouldn't increase current sales.

[InTheLab]

I disagree. Not sure it's selling at all. It's in stock all over my state...which houses the largest mall in the U.S. picked up a few games this week and stopped by one of the two Gamestops in Mall of America. Both have plenty.

I think the Switch sold out early to Nintendo diehards and scalpers. And now it's back to typical Nintendo console numbers.

I have no proof outside of what I've seen in the few stores I've sampled....grain of salt.

[AKR]

"Switch is selling on hype and artificial shortages alone". So hype is a bad thing now? Isn't that what the PS4 was propelled off of? Isn't that what Microsoft is trying to generate for the Xbox One X? When is a new product NOT being sold on hype?

And here we go again with the "artificial shortage" claims. Like another commenter said: where's your proof? Well, I have proof for the counter-argument—Nintendo has had trouble manufacturing new systems. The parts necessary are also in demand from other companies with bigger orders, which has made it harder for Nintendo to secure the components it needs to build new systems. Despite that, the company promised to increase production. The biggest factor of the whole situation is that the system just so happens to be popular with consumers—wow!

http://nintendoenthusiast.c...
http://nintendoenthusiast.c...

Even so, the situation seems to be balancing out: GameStop just got a new shipment for all of its store locations, for example:

http://nintendoenthusiast.c...

Wonder how you're gonna spin what I said. Looking forward to it.

[superchiller]

"So hype is a bad thing now? Isn't that what the PS4 was propelled off of?"

The elephant in the room which you can't seem to recognize is that the PS4 actually delivered on the hype, and has become a very successful console with many fantastic games in many genres. Switch hasn't done that at all, unless you are one of those dedicated Nintendo fans who simply adore their first party games. The small core of diehard Nintendo fans has been shrinking ever since the awful Wii and Wii U consoles, both of which completely failed to deliver solid gaming libraries, alienating longtime fans.

As for the other stuff you wrote, nintendoenthusiast is a website dedicated to promoting Nintendo products and games no matter what the company does, probably the worst source of proof you could offer (aren't you aren't writer there? lol). The component shortages are just excuses for Nintendo's usual tricks to increase demand, but that trick only works for a while before it fizzles out (which is happening now, Switch has suddenly become widely available and the hype is dying out when people see the lack of games).

The same exact thing happened with the Wii U, huge hype in the beginning and artificial shortages spurred demand, then sales tanked and never recovered. Wii U failed to deliver a solid library of 3rd party games and ended up with a tiny selection of mostly first party titles, not enough to save it. The exact same thing is happening with the Switch, you of all people should be able to see that and recognize the truth.

I give the Switch another year or two of life before Nintendo puts out a heavily revised/upgraded version with hugely increased power to make up for the weak original model (which can't handle 3rd party games unless they're simple indie titles). Everyone buying the original Switch will feel burned, and Nintendo's reputation in the gaming industry and community will continue to degrade, just as it did with both of their previous failed consoles.

[SlySouls]

Isn't this the douche who thought consoles would go obsolete in the wake of mobile gaming?

[TheUndertaker85]

Wouldn't Nintendo be subscribers to that theory as individuals here choose to label Switch a handheld-console hybrid?

Further wouldn't Nintendo be a basis for the hypothesis as Nintendo handhelds have exceeded Nintendo consoles on virtually every front?

Even moreover didn't Nintendo move away from "traditional consoles" with Wii U before Switch?

Don't even get me started on the fact that Nintendo has traditionally put more into their handhelds compared to their consoles. Not to mention their increased interest in mobile applications.

[ILostMyMind]

Just drop the price to $ 200 and everything will be ok.

[The 10th Rider]

Yeah, especially since by the time the price gets that low it will likely be the only handheld on the market. Essentially anyone who wants a dedicated handheld gaming device will be looking at a Switch.

[jonivtec]

Lack of power will catch them fast...but still an awesome console...

[Platformgamer]

The switch is sustaining itself with overhype and mario/tloz names.
2018 will be the year of the grave for switch, mark my words. Mario, zelda, pokemon and Nintenfanatics hyping mediocre games like arms and splatoon are not enough this time ;)

[superchiller]

ARMS really is a mediocre game, and it's built around the lame motion control gimmick. And Splatoon just looks like an FPS for preteens, really embarrassing stuff. Hard to believe that the Switch will succeed with poor games like these.

[TallonIV]

Splatoon 2 is an amazing game. It takes a lot of skill to master both the multiplayer and single player modes. You should really try playing the game first besides hating on it because it's made by a company you are shockingly obsessed with. I wonder if you would say the same if Splatoon 2 was a Sony IP?

Didn't think so.
(Drops mic)

[Tankbusta40]

Can someone explain to me how Nintendo still hasn't upped their production of this thing? I haven't been too fond of Nintendo and its company direction since the n64, but now I moved to an area with bad bad bad internet and at least Nintendo makes a lot of single player focused games that don't have huge update files every month. I was thinking of picking one up...the problem is I can find any except over priced ones on Amazon.

Nintendo get it together

[Autumn]

It might be related to this: http://n4g.com/news/2089067...

[Tankbusta40]

Thanks for that, wasn't aware... Thought it was just another Nintendo supply and demand game!

[jznrpg]

It depends on the games

[GamingCentaur]

Learn how to spell.

[leeeroythe3rd]

I tend to agree based on my play of it and the past nintedo support. Its way under powered to attract AAA 3rd party... and ninendo can only make 1 to 3 big titles a year. Zelda is done for 4+ years... mario is this year so another 4+. Whats the big draw in 18 or 19. Metroid? Its 19 at best...
Its a nice product that has created its own problem with not being equivalent with current gen capability to allow for easy ports

[Warshade]

I'm amazed Pachter saying things is still considered news.

[FloydianAndroid]

On No! Pachter is pessimistic. Close the doors Nintendo its over.

[zerocarnage]

Does this guy ever shut up, wished people would stop making threads put of his negative bull craps.

[kindkinesis]

I remember he said that gta 5 was not gonna too good. But he is sometimes right so who knows.

[CrimsonWing69]

Man this guy flip flops left and right.

[LastCenturyRob]

More exclusives are needed and would be welcome but all the Switch needs to be successful is Mario, Zelda and Pokemon....It has those and more....IT will do fine for five, six maybe even seven years.

[spoonard]

Why wouldn't he be? Nintendo's Wii has been it's only successful console since the SNES. If it weren't for the popularity of the DS, do you really think Nintendo would even be in business at this point? I think not.

[chris235]

switch will have less than 10 million lifetime sales. so it does not need an analyst to tell anybody that. nintendo never was able to top the former gen in sales. except for the "attack from the back" wii which captured non gamers one time as the wii u showed.

[DialgaMarine]

I'm more interested in seeing how it does when the supposed "stock issues" are no longer a factor. The console has been selling pretty poorly in Europe, and has been easily available there for months. I have a feeling the same is going to happen in NA soon, leaving Japan to be the only strong market for it.

I still have serious doubts Mario is going to give it much of an edge this holiday against the AAA third party games.