Reality Check: There’s a Strong Chance We’ll Have a PS4 and Xbox 720 A Year From Now

Kotaku
We talk to people. It's part of our job. And lately we're not hearing any big bombshells about the next generation of game consoles, but we're hearing the same buzz we've been hearing all year: the next generation of Xbox and PlayStation are right around the corner.

The vibe I get when I hear about Durango is that Microsoft is on the mark. Sony appears to inspire less confidence, though I've had a hard time nailing down why and discerning how much lost confidence is due to the on-and-off troubles of the PlayStation 3 and the struggles of the Vita vs. how much lost confidence is due to any problems looming for PS4. What I do know is that confidence is high that the next Xbox will be out in time for next Christmas. Confidence is less high that Sony will pull off the same feat, though they want to.

[wishingW3L]

we'll know for real in 5-6 months anyway.

[I_LOVE_MYSELF]

I have a strong feeling that new consoles will be announced. I need them to be announced now so I can enjoy my PS3 for a couple of years and ease into next gen at a price drop. I don't want to be bored of this gen and feel the need to buy a next gen console at launch.

[Y_5150]

That's werid...
You say that you are bored of this generation but you can last a couple more years of this generation? Read what you post please.

[I_LOVE_MYSELF]

I said I want to enjoy my PS3 for a couple more years meaning I won't be bored. If a new console isn't released by the end of those years then I will be bored. Learn to read properly, please.

[ABizzel1]

Kotaku trolling Sony once again. Surprise, surprise.

"The vibe I get when I hear about Durango is that Microsoft is on the mark. Sony appears to inspire less confidence, though I've had a hard time nailing down why and discerning how much lost confidence is due to the on-and-off troubles of the PlayStation 3 and the struggles of the Vita vs. how much lost confidence is due to any problems looming for PS4. "

What the F()@# does PS3 and Vita have to do with Sony's or anyone's confidence in the PS4. MS and Sony are rumored to be using practically the EXACT same GPU, most likely the EXACT amount of RAM, the EXACT same media format Blu Ray, thus the only difference being the CPU in which case MS's should be the more powerful (but Kinect 2 will eat some of that power) while Sony's is better for games and graphics which is the selling point of a VIDEO GAME console.

This is beyond ignorant to me. Both companies are suppose to be using off the shelf products besides MS CPU which is why MS is the unlikely company to launch 2013 because they're supposedly having problems developing and mass manufacturing the CPU.

SONY IS BUYING OFF THE SHELF AMD-A10's. WHY IN THE HE!! WOULD THEY HAVE PROBLEMS LAUNCHING WITH OFF THE SHELF PRODUCTS.

It makes no sense. Sometimes a tiny bit of critical thinking goes a long way.

"What I do know is that confidence is high that the next Xbox will be out in time for next Christmas. Confidence is less high that Sony will pull off the same feat, though they want to."

Of course confidence is high at MS. They want to get the Nextbox or Xbox 1080 (thanks Kotaku reader for that one) out by the end of the year, so they don't have to miss holiday sales, and they don't give Sony a head start, so they're doing everything they can to get the CPU running and into production. SOny on the other hand has nothing to worry about because AMD has all their stuff taken care of (if the AMD rumors are true).

[ABizzel1]

Then he wraps up with:

"But is there room for both against a year-old Wii U, potential Valve-backed hardware and the generally-resurgent PC and the presumed iPad 5 and other tablets of Christmas 2013?"

Wii-U will have no effect on gamers who are looking for PS3 and Xbox exclusives, and if the PS4 and Xbox 1080 are superior to the Wii-U as the article states then HD gamers are going to pass on the Wii-U until it gets a larger enough library of core games, and a price where it's a must buy.

And as far as PC goes, that's going to hurt Xbox a lot more than it will PlayStation because, PC and Xbox share nearly 90% of the same library, where as Sony can still count on it's vast amount of exclusives to entice the PC gamers.

iPad 5 isn't going to do anything. It may cut into sales a bit just because people will choose to buy it, but GAMERS are going to buy a games console or a PC, not a iPad.

"What happens if Sony slips to 2014?"

EXTREMELY UNLIKELY. MS is more likely to slip. The only way Sony slips to 2014 is if they want to give the PS3 another full year of games, but seeing how all their big exclusives are scheduled for the first half of 2013 I seriously doubt that's going to happen.

"Through all of this, what if the impressive console-market-leading momentum that the 360 has had for two years continues... and people don't feel the need for new consoles? What if game-makers feel the need to keep making games for the 360/PS3/WiiU standard not just through 2013 but into 2014 and 2015, too?"

"Console-market-leading momentum that the 360 has had for two years continues." I'm not even going to comment on that. As for the rest, it happens all the time. Developers who can't afford to move to the next generation will continue to develop for Xbox 360, PS3, Wii-U. That's why Sony can say their console will have a 10 year life cycle. It's also why MS says they want the Xbox 360 to last for 10 years now, and it's what the Wii-U is banking on if the PS4 and Xbox 1080 turn out to be powerhouse consoles. Games will continue being made for the PS360 well into 2015 and possibly into 2016 and beyond, until budgets are lowered and tools make developing easier (although it should be easy since they're both practically PC's).

However, the big third party developers like EA, Activision, Ubisoft, Kojima Productions, Capcom, Square Enix, and more will be moving on the to PS4 and Xbox 1080, and those developers / publisher control the success of a console (along with first party). If they're not making games for your console you're not going to succeed unless you a casual gaming device like Cell Phones and Tablets.

[ritsuka666]

Sony not learned anything from this generation?

If they're releasing PS4 in Autumn 2014, then they have to absolutely be praying that the new Xbox is specifically, only targeting the casual/Kinect crowd and PS4 can come out as the hardcore console gamer choice. I rally don't see how else they survive next gen.

[caseh]

Uhh yeah, because the PS3 has clearly stuggled this genration hasn't it. I mean to say, if the NextBox releases Halo 5 Sony will clearly be f*cked...

/s

[stage88]

The PlayStation brand is stronger than ever. You must live in the USA...
I'd be more worried for Microsoft. When PSN is upgraded MS won't have any features that warrant payment for Live.

[Conzul]

This is quite true, unless Sony bungles and ties too many of its new features into PS+

[Megaton]

The PlayStation brand has never been weaker. Microsoft has spent billions to make "Xbox" the trendy console name, and now it is paying dividends.

Sony became the console king right out the gate, and then continued their dominance with their second offering, the PS2. The PS3 has been a colossal failure by comparison, trailing behind two rivals they easily crushed in the past. The console market was theirs to lose, and lose it they did.

[Shaman]

"The PlayStation brand is stronger than ever"...maybe on N4G it is, but in the real world? I think you need reality check.

[Thatguy-310]

@Megaton
Well if the 360 trailed the PS3 with selling 50+mill more consoles then I would have agreed with you that they fell this year but it didn't. Yes it didn't conquer like it did the past two generations but they kept up with the competition which is Microsoft so they didn't really lose. Think both consoles will release around the same time. Couple of months tops a year I doubt it.

[BitbyDeath]

PS3 have sold 10 million more consoles than 360 if you start from the PS3 launching so it's not really losing.

All a matter of perspective, but that said we should stop playing numbers and just enjoy the games.

[ABizzel1]

The fact of the matter is the PS3 has been outselling the Xbox 360 EVERY YEAR since 2008, hence the reason the 360's 8 million console lead is down to barely 1 million, and at a price that has always been higher than the 360.

The Nextbox is rumored to be more Powerful than the PS4 (simply because it'll need a better CPU to run Kinect 2.0), so it's likely to cost a bit more, unless MS takes a cut and use XBL to replace the loss. But if it cost more then we'll see how things go when the shoe is on the other foot and MS comes out after the PS4 (again another rumor thanks to CPU issues) and with a higher price.

[hennessey86]

I'm ready for the next gen consoles now

[showtimefolks]

there is no strong chance let me confirm it for everyone, ps4 will be released in fall of 2013.

ms will try their best to launch same time with ps4 but from rumors you can read that they are having some issue with IBM

i say both will launch around blackfriday 2013

[BitbyDeath]

PS3 games schedule for next year also proves this.

I just hope it launches worldwide at the same time (or close to)

[BXbomber]

amazing....already kotaku claiming sony is doom to fail and xbox will prevail. getting tired of all the love the media gives microsoft.

[ALLWRONG]

There is no doom and gloom in the article, just speculation about launches. Let me guess... you must be angry over the comment about the Vita struggling, which it is.

[Saigon]

If I am not mistaken this is what they said:

"The vibe I get when I hear about Durango is that Microsoft is on the mark. Sony appears to inspire less confidence, though I've had a hard time nailing down why and discerning how much lost confidence is due to the on-and-off troubles of the PlayStation 3 and the struggles of the Vita vs. how much lost confidence is due to any problems looming for PS4. "

...and then he mentions the launch.

[Saigon]

I thought I was the only one to notice that...

Who do they talk to when they get there information? The other sites that I have read rumors say the complete opposite. This is why I hate rumor.

[KangarooSam]

"We talk to people" lol seriously Kotaku, write something interesting. For the love of God, please.

[Chapulin]

PS4 launch with Killzone 4,Resistance 4, and Demon's Soul's 2 and I could care less about anything else.

[KangarooSam]

You don't care about Sony's knack for brilliant new IPs?

New ideas
New hardware
More power
It's a bright future for Sony

[josephayal]

I have no intention on buying it, too busy with my Wii U

[ExPresident]

Wait, Kotaku is praising MS and showing Sony gloom? Let me put on my shocked face /s

Sony did not get anywhere by being stupid and they aren't going to just sit idly by and fade away, if you believe that I have an island to sell you. I'm not saying they will take #1 or any other such thing as that is for fanboys, but they will remain competitive and competition is good for gamers aka consumers.

I hope Sony does well, I hope it forces Microsoft into making Live free so gamers can win. I hope Microsoft continues to improve on Live so I can get some better and more streamlined social networking via friends on PSN because that's a win for me.

[Saigon]

Well said...

[EffectO]

Vita is the living proof that Sony has no clue what to do next.Hardware guys did great,everything else is a total disaster done by people that obviously have no clue about current market trends.

If the same people are in charge of PS4...oh boy

[Captain Tuttle]

Personally I think the PS4 will be a fine machine and the first party games on it will be impressive as ever. Your point about the Vita though is a good one and in the back of my mind it gives me pause.

[Ronaldo85]

I think 80% of the people on N4G are sony fan boys..any comments that is made that is NOT in favor of sony gets more disagrees..if you don't believe me start looking for your self

[saint_seya]

I think ure a fanboy too.. saying 80% of the people are fanboys, makes u look like one that feels outnumbered. What kotaku said is stupid, at least, u dun need to be a "fanboy" to realize that # i hope u can, if not i feel sry for u..
Idk why people keeps thinking that sony will have this, microsoft will have that. All u have to do is wait and see, till then rummors are just that, but bs like this one is not even a rumor..

[Captain Tuttle]

Well this is a hobby and for some it's fun to speculate about what's coming up, no harm done. If you don't like the story being about rumors of the next generation of consoles don't open it up. It's pretty simple.

And you should learn to type.