An Analysis on the Wii U's Current Situation

Recently Nintendo submitted its FY2013 report, which saw them failing to reach their Wii U target, after cutting it by almost 70%. This is terrible news, and the logical question is: What's next?

First let me state some things, the way I see them:

1. A new console is out of the question.

Nintendo can barely keep up with the 3DS and Wii U as it is, and with all their teams likely working on Wii U or 3DS projects for a while now, they would be unable to deliver ANY big launch titles, effectively repeating the cycle. A successor to the 3ds is not needed at this point, it is a highly profitable system that hasn't been around very long. The DS was on the market 6 years before a successor was released, and the 3DS has barely been out half as long and continues to sell fairly well.

2. The Japanese market's potential is maximized.

The Wii U has or will have entries in the Monster Hunter series, Dragon Quest series, Warriors series, Shin Megami Tensei series, and Fire Emblem series which are all amongst the most popular in Japan. Also the inevitable Animal Crossing which has become more popular than ever. Basically, Nintendo will MAXIMIZE the potential sales of the Wii U in Japan (That is to say, all the potential left in a country that is continuing to ditch consoles).

3. The Wii U has received the worst support from Nintendo compared to any other home console they've released.

This one needs some perspective. The Gamecube is currently Nintendo's worst selling console. The Wii U is tracking well behind the Gamecube, and thus comparisons between these two systems are often made. At this point in its lifetime the Gamecube had 9 million units sold, whereas the Wii U has a little over 6 million. Games sell consoles, so the big thing we should look at is the releases for each console within similar time spans. This is an analysis on Nintendo's performance, so i will only count games that were developed internally by Nintendo or produced by them. So Zombi U, developed and produced by Ubisoft, would not count.The Gamecube had the following games out within 15 months of release:
Super Smash Bros. Melee, Luigi's Mansion, Super Mario Sunshine, Metroid Prime, Animal Crossing, Mario Party 4, Pikmin, Eternal Darkness, Star Wars Rogue Squadron 2, Star Fox Adventures, and TLOZ: The Windwaker.

One thing to note is that even traditionally smaller franchises like Pikmin and Metroid saw big success due to good promotion.

Now for the games the Wii U had within 15 months:
Nintendo Land, New Super Mario Bros. U, New Super Luigi U, Pikmin 3, Wii Party U, TLOZ: The Windwaker HD, The Wonderful 101, Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze and Super Mario 3D World.

Most of these are good games, but we can safely eliminate most as system selling games for one reason or another. Windwaker HD is just a remake, obviously it won't stimulate hardware sales by much. Pikmin 3 is a surprising addition to a series that was 9 years dormant, and with meager promotion it came as a surprise when it sold the few hardware units it did. The Wonderful 101 is an incredibly niche game from developer Platinum Games who has historically failed to meet sales expectations. Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze was a late entry in probably the only genre that can be described as "overcrowded" on the Wii U: platformers. This game was great, but chances are anyone who had plans on getting this bought the console for one of the umpteen previously released platformers on the system. This really only leaves us with Nintendo Land, Wii Party U, and the three Mario games as potential system sellers. And to be fair, these games did cause decent sales boosts.

There are a number of factors as to why this is. Nintendo launched the Wii U in the midst of the 3DS recovery effort which saw many of their teams busy on 3DS games. Their internal development teams were also definitely inexperienced with HD development, and likely overwhelmed. Overrall, for the launch of the console, Nintendo focused their resources on niche games, and then failed to promote them in any meaningful or longterm way or release them in a punctual or logical pace (too many platformers in quick succession).

It's easy to talk about WHY the Wii U is failing, it is not so easy to suggest a solution. For that i propose the following:

1. Some form of connectivity with the 3DS.

The 3DS is a very successful system, and the Wii U is not. I think future 3DS titles from Nintendo or even 3rd parties should include a small bonus to those who "sync" it with a specific channel on the Wii U dedicated to providing 3DS owners with more incentive to buy a Wii U by offering extra content. Obviously this is nothing that will sell systems en masse, but it is a nice bonus to consider, and could be a tipping point.

2. Make the Wii U seem new.

This would require a complete redesign of the console. Think DS Lite. This could be an opportunity to significantly cut the cost of console production, as well as redefine the look of the Wii U in the public eye. In addition, this new model could offer a slot on the bottom to accomodate a "3DS player" to allow people to play 3DS games on ths big screen, like the GBA Player on the Gamecube. With this new model could come a new marketing campaign, a new slogan, a new logo, etc.

3. Revamp Nintendo's public approach.

This is something we've already seen happening. The recent Mario Kart 8 Direct (with all its cringe worthy humor), proved to be much more lively than Iwata speaking broken English in a white room. The Directs are an acquired taste in their present form, and they could have appeal beyond Nintendo fans. In addition, they need to use Reggie more. He's had a serious lack in their public image for years now. He's good at hyping up audiences and making them laugh, so they really should utilize him more. Lastly, their commercials need to show a wide variety of AUDIENCES, not people. To be specific, they need to actually show footage of Bayonetta 2, Fatal Frame, and other more mature games in their commercials. Lately they show people of all ethnicities and ages... playing the same games. They are touting the Wii U as a system that appeals to everyone, but they fail to show every game.

4. BUY Third Party support

This is something they are becoming marginally better at. Recently they've bought/co-developed/funded:

A Fatal Frame game from Tecmo
Hyrule Warriors from Tecmo
Bayonetta 2 from Platinum
SMT x FE from Atlus
Sonic Lost World from Sega
Sonic Boom from Sega

However, Nintendo have deep pockets, and they need to do more. They need to buy entire studios that can provide a steady stream of games fast. Western studios have been dropping like flies lately, and that is the primary market they should focus on, having already secured good Japanese support.

Another system people compare to the Wii U is the PS3. While many say this as an uneducated example of a system overcoming rough sales (made largely irrelevant by the fact that the PS3 never sold near this bad), I think this comparison makes more sense on a deeper level. The launch of the PS3 represents a time in which fans had to throw aside their love for a company and its products, and make them understand the mistakes they were making. A lot of people say that Sony was getting "bashed" or "hated", but it was this rampant criticism that led them to the position they are in now. The restructuring of first party studios, the founding of new studios, the advent of favorable policies, and the closer relations with third parties were all a result of the pressure Sony felt from consumers on the verge of abandoning Playstation. Sony sacrificed a lot of money to get the PS3 where it is now, but in the end it was worth it. They successfully won back their fans, and ended up releasing the wildly successful PS4 on the foundation all that money forged. I guess the point im trying to make is, the Wii U doesn't need to be financially successful in the end anyway. If Nintendo bites the bullet, takes a bit of a financial beating, but satisfies and grows their fanbase as a result, this could make the Wii U a technically successful console in the end, and they could reap the benefits next gen. I doubt they'll have the balls to do this, but this is a different way to think about it (seeing the current state of the Wii U as an opportunity rather than a hindrance).

There are many more things I could suggest that I may return to in the future, but for now I will conclude. Feel free to comment and discuss.

[caseh]

My main concern with the Wii U is you ask anyone why they have one or suggest it doesn't have many game, they mention the same list of games that they own or are looking forwards to; Zelda, Mario, Metroid, DK, SSB.

It's no secret that on a technical level, it's inferior to PS4 and XB1. So based on that, if you're happy to have your exclusives in the guise of the games I listed above and inferior or non-existent multi-platform games then good for you.

But as a core gamer, I want a bit of everything and I want it in the best quality available. A handful of Nintendo exclusives I used to love way back on the SNES and N64 are not going to justify me owning a Wii U console, just my opinion.

[Dannycr]

Agreed on everything. I may also add the "laziness" (or I don't really know what it is) of Nintendo of not adding online support to their games to improve the community. They always think about "same-couch multiplayer" but, many of us would have loved to see online coop in Both mario games, Luigi U, Donkey Kong, etc.

It's not like adding online coop functionality will ruin the game or make the game less enjoyable, it is expanding the possibilities and replayability. I don't know if they don't add these functions to avoid reviewers taking points off off the multiplayer side or what, but I hate having to be in the same place to be able to enjoy Mario 3D Worlds, I wish I could just play with my cousins online.

The online community may be happy with miiverse, but it is vastly inferior to what the other consoles are offering.

[Concertoine]

Exactly. They've been boasting about Nintendo Network's success and high userbase, and pushing Mario Kart 8 and Smash's online lately, so we may yet see them utilize online more.
Even just being able to play Mario Kart 64 or Melee online would be a huuuge deal. People would be dumping their nostalgia money.

[JMyers]

This is a great post and an excellent read.

I believe that Nintendo needs to do a few key things to gain some ground this gen.

Firstly... An Image Change. People are still confused on the hardware and what it does. They need to market this as the "Wii 2". A whole new console, and successor to the Wii. With a new controller, more power, and compatability with old Wii accessories.

Secondly... Price and bundles. The Wii U should be $199 or the highest $249. Bundled with a game, a pro contoller and the second screen controller. This is agressive yes, and may result in nintendo being a loss leader. But it will get consoles in homes, and is better than unsold stock.

Thirdly. More compatibility with the 3DS, especially with titles like Pokemon and Zelda.

Fourthly. GAMES, buy third party support and where is Pokemon for the Wii U? An MMO perhaps?

Lastly... Leadership. Change is needed in direction, vision and strategies in Nintendo, from top down. It needs to be swift and effective.

Those are my thoughts.

[Concertoine]

Theres a distinct problem with the 3rd party support they have been buying too.
Like with the gamecube there was stuff like Resident Evil, Metal Gear, and Star Wars which are all big established franchises. Now were seeing just absolute niche. Like the Fatal Frame games sell 150k on average worldwide. And im sooooo glad to see Bayonetta 2 and Fatal Frame, but that stuff isn't gonna move s*** in the west. That's what you release after you sell a lot of units.

[JMyers]

Yep. Completely agree. They need a serious change in strategy, and a major re-focus on attracting third parties.