The State of The Next-Gen Video Game Console

Superfragilistic - 579 days 17 hours ago

The article is an interesting read although I firmly disagree with their analyst's numbers of 40million 360's, 107million Wii's & 107million PS3's by 2012. I just can't see the console market getting to a 250million+ size. Plus if we factor another years sales based on Sony's own predictions to factor in the 360's head start, the 360 & PS3 are tied at around 20million consoles each whilst the Wii hangs out at 25million.

In terms of price cuts the Wii has the most to lose and the PS3 most to gain just given their starting price points, but given the recent financial reports of Sony and Microsoft we have Sony losing $260 per console (once you factor in the massive PS2 and PSP profits) and Microsoft are only just breaking even. If Sony cuts the price of the PS3, MS will just follow as it has more financial room to move and counter at present. But with a lower price for a game console + bluray, Sony may be able to counter this financial advantage.

As for the Wii, it's already at a mass market friendly point and has sold at a significant profit since it's release. So Nintendo could certainly respond to any price competition and still know it has the most untapped potential due to short supplies.

In my view Nintendo will continue to outstrip the other two consoles whilst Sony and Microsoft continue to wage a war of attrition on one another, largely to Nintendo's benefit. Nintendo will get close to 100+ million, but unless there's any kind of significant shift in the current landscape the PS3 and 360 will essentially fight out a closely contested second place somewhere in the region of 60-80million consoles each by 2012.

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callahan09 - 579 days 15 hours ago

I think he's right on the money with his 2008-2009 estimates. PS3 still will be in last by the end of this year, but next year, we'll see God of War 3 & Final Fantasy XIII, which will both be immensely popular, and then there's a humongous list of exclusives coming to the PS3 over the course of time from now til the beginning of 2010, far far bigger than the lineup coming to 360 and Wii (well, if you don't count all the complete garbage that is inevitable for the Wii that is). And then there's the looming price drop which is sure to hit before holiday 2009, and I think you're looking at a large migration to the PS3 by 2010, surpassing the 360 and starting to get really close to the Wii.

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edonus - 579 days 14 hours ago

This market is going to balance out for each console for specific reasons. The Wii will sell a bunch of consoles but it will not have an affect on the video games industry, because 3rd parties titles and advanced big budget games will more than likely flop, so Nintendo will get payed but thats it. The 360 will reach as many gamers that willing to listen, those that buy 360s will be converts and gaming enthusiast so as long as MS keeps delivering good content they will buy and buy alot. The Ps3 will continue to thrive off of name brand they will consistently creep up in sales but their software market will never be optimized. I've said it before Sony has a programmed buyer if the games released arent part of the program no matter how good it will not reach success. They all will have their limitations and be successful in their own right.

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kewlkat007 - 579 days 14 hours ago

they never state any other contributing factors that might effect the gaming industry sales.

Especially the Economic ones, facing us right now. The gaming Industry is not like the Housing Market.

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princejb134 - 579 days 14 hours ago

even dou i cant really agree with everything here especially the numbers
it was a very interesting
it will be surprising if the writers prediction becomes true

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kingme71 - 579 days 13 hours ago

I don't think the 360 will last until 2012. It might last alongside of a 720 like the PS2 does alongside the PS3 today and if that is the case, the price would drop substantially.

If indeed the 360 is still going strong in 2012, I don't think the numbers will tail off like that graph shows though.

I think you'll find alot more multi console owners this generation than last. Alot of hardcore gamers that have a Wii have either a PS3 or 360.

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vega75 - 579 days 13 hours ago

i have to disagree. i know in the past the ps brand sold over 100min units. but this time around it has stiff competition from ninty and MS. plus sony market share are not what they once where. the only system i see selling over 100 min units is the wii. i see the ps3 selling like 60 to 70 mil and the 360 with 50 to 55 mil by 2012.

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Expy - 579 days 13 hours ago

No matter what people say, Sony made a good move introducing the Blu-Ray disc player in the console. That alone will push a lot of units not to forget the gaming aspect of the system as well.

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witchking - 579 days 11 hours ago

Look, the games are going to tell the tale. In the last generation, Sony had a headstart, and it had an exclusive on GTA III. Those two facts coupled with astounding support from third parties WW made the PS2 the most attractive console.

This generation, well, for reasons that still boggle my mind, the Wii is going to take a large lead... and will likely win, provided Nintendo can keep it at least modestly interesting to the casual gamer through 2012. I have one, but other than playing bowling with my kids, the only action it gets is from the children. I think everyone either has one or wants one, despite how much (little) play time the thing gets.

So between 2009-2012, the big question is: what is THE game that will help push either the 360 or the PS3? The problem with the 360 is that it definitely has a brand image of being for an older audience. Its hits -- Halo, Gears of War, Fable, even GTA IV -- are all rated M. The 360, if it's going to get up to the 75m or more mark, needs an E or T game that is simply the must-have title of this generation. Had they acted swiftly enough to buy Harmonix, they could have had an exclusive with Rock Band, but they didn't do that. I suspect that the 360 is going to do better than the original Xbox, but the question to MSFT, when they find themselves struggling, is whether they will have done well enough in this generation to go ahead and launch another generation with a new Xbox in 2011/2012.

The PS3 has some momentum, and LBP may very well be THE game that helps push that system, but only when the PS3 comes down in price -- significantly -- will it generate the kinds of sales we're seeing from the Wii right now. As much as MGS4 is a system seller, so was Halo, and again, it's a hardcore audience playing a mature game. It's not going to be the be-all and end-all that helps push PS3 over the hump. Something mainstream will need to do that.

Both the 360 and the PS3 have great lineups and great franchises to bank on. But they missed the boat. The success of games like Guitar Hero, Rock Band and the Wii show that people want more interactive entertainment... had either Microsoft or Sony been able to gain exclusivity over the Guitar Hero franchise, for instance, then we might have seen one of them simply push forward at a phenomenal rate. Now each of them will be looking for elusive title that simply every single person will want... and will shell out the dollars for the console to play.

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jinn - 579 days 14 hours ago

the hardcore gamers support the 360

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