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Dyack Predicts A One Console Future

At his GCDC lecture, Silicon Knights' Denis Dyack presented his case that with an unsustainable current business model, a 'one console future' was not just possible, but probable as early as the 'next round of hardware' -- describing how the shift would be good for both creators and consumers.

In today's monopolistic model, three proprietary hardware manufacturers have gone in three different directions: the PS3 with its Cell processor, the Xbox 360 with its 3 CPUs and Xbox Live, and the Wii, with its 'socialized interface hardware.'

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gamasutra.com

Alternative Sources:

Dyack: 'One console future'... - gamersquad.com | By: mistermostyn

Next generation could see u... - eurogamer.net | By: Maldread

drtysouf21 - contributor
Published: 852 days 3 hours ago | Article | PlayStation 3 | Xbox 360 | Wii

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Dr Pepper - 852 days 3 hours ago

1 -

And what happens when the competition is totally erased and the "one console" company takes advantage of the consumers? With no other systems available, they can make the hardware, accessories, games etc. as expensive as they want, since the person buying it has no other choices.

And then what happens when they start having very different views on certain situations? They split into two companies and another console is formed later and we have started all over again.

Edit: "way too many games," according to Dyack. I found this pretty funny. Better too many games than too little, at least in my opinion.

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QuackPot - 852 days 3 hours ago

1.1 - Don't forget who dominated the last two generations

Ps1 & Ps2

Nobody was screwed by Sony's dominance. Over whelmingling happy gamers and huge selection of games.

Microsoft came into the game console industry NOT so that it can form an alliance with Sony, Ninetendo etc to make a standard console but to dominate it and make a lot of money. They are prepared to take huge losses to achieve this(eg the xbox and likely the xbox 360 if they abandon it as well for an xbox 720).

Each of the three main console makers are out to make money and want to maintain control of their business.

The best way for there to be a single console now would be a winner in the console war - Playstation or Xbox. I'm excluding Wii as it's not next gen.

If you know anything about Microsoft's monopoly and practises with Windows on the PC over the last 20 years, you'd be a fool to want Microsoft to win the console war.

Damn. If Micorsoft never entered this industry, a lower specd & cheaper Ps3 would most likely be dominating the market now as well as Halo and Gears be running on it. But that's what if.

Let the war continue. I hope this generation finally gives us a clear winner so a certain manufacturer will finally get out of the industry and focus on what it does best - Games development.

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Kholinar - 852 days 2 hours ago

1.2 - Quackpot

I love ducks, so I'm all for your username.

Let me say though, that while Microsoft has been bad with a monopoly, I haven't seen that Sony's been better even without a monopoly.

Rootkits, Atrac, memorystick, etc. are all examples of Sony trying to lock people into their products and protect their interests above those of consumers. They may be getting better after all of this (Bluray is fairly open) but a monopoly could be a nightmare. I'm not sure they've learned yet. Microsoft has been more open lately too, and I wouldn't trust them if they paid me several billion.

I'm not sure I'd feel safe with any of these companies in charge.

On the other hand, what this guy is saying just sounds like destroying consoles and going on to pc's to me. I really like custom gaming hardware instead. With this you'd be upgrading videocards and drivers would cause instability, etc. Viruses/worms would become that much more prevalent cause you'd be using a standardized architecture...

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tplarkin7 - 851 days 18 hours ago

1.3 - It isn't a monopoly.

Denis is comparing it to cell phone technology and VCRs. So, it won't be a single company controlling and profiting from a console. It will be many companies making their own consoles to a single specification. This reminds me of IBM PC "compatible" computers.

There was a day when IBM was the sole manufacturer of PCs. There were many "brands" of computers, such as Tandy, Texas Instruments, and Apple. They all competed for market dominance. Guess who won the PC war? Microsoft.

Compaq was the first compatible computer and thus started the "unification" of hardware for computers. Perhaps the unified console will be the PC? If they make the PC smaller and as simple as a console, then it may happen.

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Gizmo_Logix - 851 days 16 hours ago

1.4 - Kholinar

Kholinar,

Sony never had a monopoly in any market. Even during the PS2 days (65%). That's far from the 90% that Microsoft has in the operating system market. Just wanted to point that out.

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d3l33t - 852 days 3 hours ago

2 - uhh

this is horse $hit. There is no way, and if there was a possible way that only one console would be released, it would be horrible for games. As a gamer, I like choice. In games, AND in consoles.

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QuackPot - 852 days 2 hours ago

2.1 - Don't confuse games with consoles with respect to competition

Halo, Gears, Bioshock, Forza etc can all be written and optimized for the Ps3.

Likewise LBP, HS, R&C etc for xbox 360.

Games developers are always in competition with one another. The consoles only get involved when publishers/developers make their games exlusive to a particular console.

I say get rid of exclusives altogether.

Let the Hardware stand on its own merits and not have exclusive games being the main reason to buy it.

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bluegoblin - 852 days 3 hours ago

3 - I have an idea!

it should be called nintendo.

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SwiderMan - 852 days 3 hours ago

4 - Silicon Knights' Denis Dyack???

This coming from the developer of Too Human, which was original a PSX game?

Get working on your nearly 10-year old game. It's starting to make Duke Nukem Forever look good.

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ItsDubC - 852 days 3 hours ago

5 -

While his theory about commodification makes sense, I just don't see it happening in the realm of console technology. Some have said the same thing about the PC market and we all know that PCs come in different formfactors, configurations, and brands.

The reason I think his theory falls short is that Nintendo is already taking advantage of and correcting the characteristics of the industry that he points to as the eventual causes for commodification.

In keeping w/ familiar yet older hardware specs this generation, Nintendo has effectively given 3rd-parties breathing room when it comes to developing games. Lower development costs for Wii games means developers are exposed to less risk and more profit potential. The same is true for DS development.

Also, because Nintendo has profitted from every Wii sold from the beginning, there is less pressure to put the burden of recouping hardware costs on 3rd-parties, which is something Dyack also outlined.

Avid gamers may scoff at casual games, but sales of those casual games will keep devs in business by helping to make up for big-budget flops and by helping to fund the next big-budget hit.

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Kholinar - 852 days 2 hours ago

5.1 -

Well said.

Nintendo has made some colossal mistakes in past gens. They seem to be learning a bit.

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drtysouf21 - 852 days 3 hours ago

6 - Hmmm lets see it shall be called the

Soninsoft Playwiibox Omega!

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cuco33 - 852 days 3 hours ago

7 - i think a single console will happen...

between sony and microsoft

it'll be called the playbox

it'll have 1 SKU, a high capacity disk drive, large HDD as standard, multiple card slots, media center capabilities that stream ALL audi/video formats without conversions, wifi, be region free game and movie playback, 360 style controller w/rumble and a not half assed motion sensing just for the hell of it, and titles will be merged so you'll see a me lee style game where snake will be using master chief's bubble shield. it'll replace the pc with included keyboard and mouse and have multiple HD outputs that does resolutions in 1800p via HDMI, component, etc.

it'll still compete against an inferior and cheaper nintendo system which will continue to make fun titles but only this time ninty will not have those horrid friends codes

i can dream can't i?

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ShiftyLookingCow - 852 days 2 hours ago

8 -

sounded stupid at first, but looks like its possible in the future. Its not about one console and one monopoly, its about one standard for games like dvds. Easier said than done though.

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don imus - 852 days 2 hours ago

9 -

i think playstation and xbox will be one console soon and nintedo will join soon after.

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Kholinar - 852 days 2 hours ago

9.1 -

Doubt it. Too many egos.

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10 WilliamRLBaker | 852 days 2 hours ago - User only got 1 bubble - Show

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d3l33t - 852 days 2 hours ago

11 -

it's a nice thought, but it's like saying that all car companies will one day become one, or all TV companies will eventually come down to one. It's not how any market works, including Video Games. You wouldn't want this happening, the technology limits would never be pushed, games wouldn't have to compete in terms of content and graphics. Sure it works fine in a perfect world, but whens the last time the burger you ordered at McDonalds looks like what you saw on TV.

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mistertwoturbo - 852 days 2 hours ago

12 -

this guy is obviously not business minded. Competition is actually really good for the consumer. It drives each side of the competition to make they're products cheaper and higher-quality. While they each try to out-do each other, the consumers are the ones getting the goods. Whether it's X360 or PS3 (Wii doesn't count) everybody get's to enjoy something.

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Daxx - 852 days 2 hours ago

13 - There would never be one console.

It would monopolize the console industry if there was only one console.

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Sayai jin - 852 days 2 hours ago

14 -

Simple....won't happen.

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tony - 852 days 2 hours ago

15 -

can you imaging having the best of all three consoles in one? that would be great.

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Sayai jin - 852 days 2 hours ago

15.1 -

That would be nice, but if there was only one consle you would not know about the other two. I like that there are multiple systems out there, I own all three. It is a exciting time to be a gamer.

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reaperxciv - 852 days 2 hours ago

15.2 - yeah right!

one console, that's possible, but it's gonna cost $1000.00, no competition is bad for all of us

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Kholinar - 852 days 2 hours ago

15.3 -

What he's really talking about is one compatibility standard, not one console.

If we want that it's already there, via Windows Compatibility.

So let's say that we used another standard and all these companies (Toshiba, Sony, MS, Nintendo, E-machines O_o, etc.) were using it. Then one would come out with a model with better shaders. Do you switch for a new one? The games would still run, just not as pretty without the shaders. So maybe replace the video card? Then you've got a gaming pc. Every individual console I've owned has provided a more stable experience than gaming pcs. I'm not sure if that's just a windows problem, but the market will test it if this guy's even slightly right.

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nirwanda - 852 days 1 hour ago

15.4 - 15.2

why would it be more expensive when it would be even more mass produced

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16 BIadestarX | 852 days 1 hour ago - User only got 1 bubble - Show

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Kholinar - 852 days ago

16.1 -

Wow... there's so much of your comment that I agree with.

"Let Microsoft make the SDK, development studios and Network features. It's obvious that Microsoft experience making easy to use tools it's obvious between development against the PS3 and the xbox 360.

Let Sony make the hardware. It's obvious that Sony's experience making hardware that's reliable and durable. Not the PS1 or PS2... but the PS3 is well made..."

Microsoft has a lot of experience with SDK's, etc. Sony makes great, reliable hardware (in consumer devices, pc's and gaming). There's no doubt about any of that. The problem is that neither like to open up anything. See MS's recent OOXML document format and their entire history. See the Sony examples I listed above. Like you said, won't happen. But I agree very much with your hardware statement. I'm not so much for the Microsoft implementation, but that's my bias against their programming philosophy in general. Other than some Office features, I don't see much to admire.

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ShiftyLookingCow - 851 days 14 hours ago

16.2 -

well said

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nirwanda - 852 days 1 hour ago

17 - this is funny

reading all these comments about how bad it would be to only have one console then flicking over to the HD-DVD/BLURAY comments and everyone wants a single format if everyone got together and made one console(won't happen) and said every 7 years a next gen hardware will come out wouldn't this make it more marketable to the main stream like a single video format.

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Kholinar - 852 days ago

17.1 -

Interesting.

I have no interest in seeing any format win.

All I care about is being able to play all the media I buy on one player. Whether that means that HDDvD or bluray dominates doesn't matter to me. If it's hybrid players, I'm up for that too. I'm platform agnostic because good movies (though rare) come from many studios.

Whereas with games I'm not agnostic. I do tend to like games with less violence that can be played with multiple people in real life. So, with the exception of DDR or Karaoke Rev... I lean towards Nintendo. In this, it's more like buying a car. I don't need a truck or a stationwagon. I buy what fits my two person household and my driving habits. I buy a guitar that's a fender or a gibson for that particular sound or I buy two for two sounds. I don't really care to have one that does two sounds badly.

And on and on... not everything is apples to apples.

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ShadoWulf - 852 days ago

18 -

"The best way for there to be a single console now would be a winner in the console war - Playstation or Xbox. I'm excluding Wii as it's not next gen."

Did you notice that in the article, he says, "[there are] fewer perceptible differences between the Xbox 360 and PS3 compared to the Xbox and PS2" While Microsoft and Sony are basically making their consoles technically superior to their predecessors, the Wii actually changes the console itself. Since systems are measured in generations, I would use the analogy that the Xbox360 and PS3 are more mature (in terms of tech) versions of the Xbox and PS2, while the Wii is a fundamentally new console, unlike anything seen before. By my reasoning, Wii is the /only/ next gen system. 360 and PS3 are more advanced versions of the previous generation.

"The reason I think his theory falls short is that Nintendo is already taking advantage of and correcting the characteristics of the industry that he points to as the eventual causes for commodification."
-that's exactly what I was thinking.

Anyways, a monopoly in the console market wouldn't be good for the consumer. As much as we hate fanboys, exclusives, and having our system which we spent hard-earned money on attacked, if there were only one system I think people would hate it. As far as having no exclusives (unlimited compatibility), the companies wouldn't go for that because there wouldn't be any reason to buy the PS3 compared to the slightly less powerful but much cheaper 360 with the same games, and Nintendo wouldn't be able to hike further down it's trail of, well, differentness. Plus, the games would cost a fortune. Anyways, aren't there anti-trust laws preventing this?

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Rooftrellen - 851 days 18 hours ago

18.1 -

Bubbles for you, my friend. Wonderful post.

As for laws preventing this, I don't think so. Laws are a bit fuzzy in this area, but so long as the 3 didn't try to prevent any other company from making a console, it would be a lot like MS and Windows, or AT&T and telephone service. Both have had suits brought against them for being a monopoly, but so long as they aren't doing anything unreasonable, everyone just looks the other way.

Of course, it will never happen, because there are too many different ideas in what a console should be. Nintendo isn't going to have a next gen system that costs $800, and MS isn't going to settle for anything but cutting edge graphics that can compete with computers at the time, while Sony will again reach for a long life for its next console, not 4 (MS) years or 5 (Nintendo) years.

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Chug - 851 days 23 hours ago

19 - N4G would be doomed...

People wouln't be able to hack each others throats on here if there was only one console! J/K, people always find something to b!tch about.

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alaaji - 851 days 18 hours ago

20 - Everyone's missing the point

With the exception of a few people who have already posted, nobody is understanding what the author is saying. Let me spell it out for you.

The author is saying that there will be one standard, i.e. all competing consoles will be able to run the same game without developers having to make the same game optimized for different consoles. If you need an example, look at the computer market. Essentially, Microsoft Windows runs on over 90% of the world's computers and while those computers can have different specifications, they can ideally all run the same software.

So, in the author's future, you wouldn't look at the front of the box to see what system the console game is for but much like you do for PC games, you would look at the back to see what kind of graphics card you need, processor, memory, etc.

Do you understand now?

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Gizmo_Logix - 851 days 16 hours ago

20.1 - Microsoft Windows

Microsoft Windows runs on 90% of desktop computers. Not all computers in the world. You forget Linux servers, which is more open to standards that are NOT controlled by one company.

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alaaji - 851 days 12 hours ago

20.2 - Gizmo

You are missing my point. You just glossed over my entire post just to focus on a minute point. Let me try again. He is predicting one standard operating system for all consoles. The title of "A One Console Future" is misleading to those who didn't read the entire article.

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Gizmo_Logix - 851 days 3 hours ago

20.3 - alaaji

alaaji,

Yes. I got that. But I just didn't like your analogy to Window since it is NOT a commodity. Microsoft gets massive revenues from the sales of their "90%" market share. Now, while you might say that no one will care. I think that open-standards like http, browsers, HTML, OpenGL, w3c specs, USB, SATA, IEEE 1394, mp3 php, perl, c++, objc, x86, AMD64, EMT64T, etc...are better standards that can be comoditized (sp) that are NOT controlled by any ONE company. A single "OS" for all consoles. Sure, show me. But it's not going to be Windows unless they drastically reduce the price. That's one of the key aspects of a commodity. Very low price and ubiquity.

I agree with the premise of the article. I just don't think that "Windows" should be your analogy to explain it.

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