Now that we are almost to the historical halfway point of the current generation of consoles, Many gamers will wonder what's in store for the next generation. To get a better idea of what the future may hold, we can start by taking a look backward. Phase two of the Wii is where I believe Nintendo will truly dominate. The Wii 2 will probably be released in 2010. Nintendo can use 5 year old technology, which will be pretty cheap to produce by then, in the new system. What they will end up with is an updated Wii, with PS3/XBOX 360 quality graphics running at 1080p high definition. By using older and cheaper, but still powerful, processors, Nintendo can probably deliver the Wii 2 for around $200-$300. They will already have at least four years of experience in motion sensing games under their belts, while Microsoft and Sony will be playing catch-up if they decide to, and I believe they will have no choice but to, build new consoles around motion sensing technology. In this future scenario, multi-platform games will most likely be developed for the Wii 2 first, then ported to the other systems, which will alleviate one of the current Wii’s Achilles’ heels. Also, casual gamers will be less likely to be burned by bad games in the future because the current Wii market will have made them wiser video game consumers. So, am I predicting doom and gloom for Sony and Microsoft? Quite the opposite. I can certainly envision the XBOX 360 and PS3 both being 10 year machines. The 360 has already established itself as a market leader in the US, and the PS3 will eventually catch up. Two or three years from now, you will probably be able to purchase an XBOX 360 or PS3 for $150-200. Each system will have a huge library of high quality software, most of which will be available for under $20. Imagine walking in to a game store and walking out with a PS3 system, Gran Turismo 5, Metal Gear Solid 4, Killzone 2, Final Fantasy, and Resistance 2 for under $300. It will happen. The PS3 and XBOX 360 will certainly establish themselves in the way that the PS2 has. The current generation will probably be the most successful ever, and it will last the longest. Games have reached a peak that will not be surpassed for a long time. There is still so much potential in the PS3 and XBOX 360. Sony and Microsoft should milk their current consoles for all that they are worth, and not worry about creating the next evolutionary upgrade. Then, when the time is right, they can try to re-define gaming as Nintendo did. I will certainly be along for the ride.
First came the "classic" era of consoles beginning in 1978. Phase one included the Atari 2600 and Intellivision. With the golden age of arcades in full bloom during this time, most games for these systems were ports of popular arcade games, or simple, pick-up-and-play type games. Most games were single screen, simplistic games that lacked any real depth. Phase two of this era brought us the ColecoVision and Atari 5200 systems. Most games for these systems were simply the same games with slightly updated graphics and sounds. Too many poor quality games eventually flooded the market, and the home video game market crashed in 1984.
The next era was the 2-D era. The Nintendo Entertainment System, although not hugely successful at launch in late 1985, was popular enough to convince Americans that home console gaming still had a future. The most popular types of games during this era were platform and action-adventure games that were simply not possible on previous consoles. Sega eventually introduced the Master System, and gaming was reborn. Phase two of this era was dominated by the 16-bit Sega Genesis and Super Nintendo Entertainment System. Many of the franchises that were born on the 8-bit machines were updated on the 16-bit machines, and many publishers provided games for these consoles that were the pinnacle of 2-D gaming. A large number of games from this era are considered classics, and still look great and play well even by today's standards.
Next came the 3-D era. Ushered in by the Sega Saturn and Sony Playstation in 1995, and the Nintendo 64 in 1996, this was the birth of modern gaming. Free-roaming playfields, produced with 3-D polygons instead of sprites, became the norm. However, because the technology was relatively new, most games were produced with low resolution textures, and did not look as good as their arcade counterparts. Still, classic franchises were upgraded to 3-D, and new franchises were created. When phase two of the 3-D era arrived with the introduction of the Sega Dreamcast, the results were absolutely stunning. Home consoles were now more powerful than arcade machines. Games were high resolution, with millions of polygons per second. Soon came the Playstation 2, XBOX, and Gamecube, and gamers were provided with a plethora of games featuring amazing graphics, sound, and a depth and complexity never before possible.
In case you haven't guessed by now, the main point that I am trying to make is that there has always been two phases of each generation of home gaming consoles. The first phase generally introduces a new technology, and the second phase perfects it. We are now in the third phase of the current era, and I believe that a fourth phase will not happen. The third phase was made possible this era for two reasons. First is the advent of High Definition TV, and it's mass acceptance into homes. Although some XBOX games were high definition, they were few and far between. All Playstation 3 and XBOX 360 games are at least 720p resolution. Secondly, online gaming has hit it's peak, and all systems have built-in broadband capabilities.
So, where does gaming go from here? The leap from PS2 and XBOX to PS3 and XBOX 360 was nowhere near as significant as in previous eras. Games look better, but not by a huge margin. Some PS2 and XBOX games look almost as good as games on their updated systems. It is no wonder that the PS2 is still going strong even in the face of more powerful systems. It is a quarter of the price of the new systems, and has hundreds of great games. I simply do not believe that Microsoft and Sony can release new systems in a few years unless they significantly change how their games are played. The law of diminishing returns will rear it's ugly head. Games simply cannot produce much more detail than is already possible, and I just don't envision gamers spending $500-$600 on a new system that will play the same games with a barely distinguishable upgrade in graphics.
This is why I have concluded that Nintendo may very well be the only major player 5 to 10 years from now. They have followed the historical model, and wisely did not try to simply make a more powerful Gamecube. After two phases, they moved on and created a new gaming experience with the Wii. Although the Wii’s motion sensing technology is cutting edge, many have criticized Nintendo for not significantly upgrading the graphics technology. Nintendo seems to understand that graphics do not make games better, and the slightly upgraded Gamecube engine that powers the Wii is more than adequate for producing the Wii experience. It has also allowed Nintendo to price the Wii at half the price of it’s competition and still make a profit on each unit sold. The runaway success of the Wii is proof that there is a huge market for gamers looking for more than simply the same games with better graphics. But, as with most phase one systems, the Wii is not without it’s growing pains. Most games that are ported from other systems do not play well with the Wii’s control scheme. Also, there is a large amount of mediocre and just plain bad software being put on the market, and many people who are new to gaming do not know how to spot bad games.
Kakao Games announced that both of its high-profile Unreal Engine 5 powered action MMORPGs, ArcheAge 2 and Chrono Odyssey, are due for a global launch in 2025.
After having become the most negatively reviewed game in Steam history, Helldivers 2 is dropping down the list as players change their reviews
The ratings still aren’t nearly where they were before but it’s making progress.
omg, who in Sony camp decided to do this should no longer have a job. They almost ruin a really good game sales.
Love a bit of tennis? Just want to jump on to the latest craze? Tennis Elbow 4 is playing all the shots as it releases onto the world of Xbox.
What interests me the most is how big of a leap in hardware and processing power we will see in the next console cycle. Will we expect huge leaps or just refined architectures or hardware? That's a very interesting question because at the moment the Wii, barely as powerful as the 360/PS3, has been outselling its competition for the past months.
Goodbye to Discs
Really, we've been using discs since the phonograph. Yes, they're that old. I can see flash cards taking their place someday. You make a 5GB game, why pay for 50GB on a Blu-ray? I see Nintendo trying this one first. Microsoft? Maybe, but I see them pushing online game downloads. Sony? Not a chance, disc's have been too good to them.
The Dual GPU
It hasn't been done since the Saturn, but Dual GPU has gotten much better since then. Just ask a PC gamer. Who will do this first? Anyone's ballgame.
Im really glad that you see this generation of consoles as long lasting because this will be the last generation of consoles. Microsoft and Sony this generation of consoles. The market is changing to more PC game oriented so they will have no reason to go through all the trouble to make another generation of consoles. Besides there is no financial reason to. A study shows that "console gamers" spend 18.5 hours play PC games and 13.5 playing console games a month. So im glad these are long lasting because this is the end of console gaming.
I wrote a blog post about this for a little more detail if your curious.
http://www.n4g.com/up/0/Blo...