I think there is a lot of old IP's that will struggle too. Tomb Raider: Underworld is the perfect example of a great game where players have grown tired of the IP (perhaps after one too many let downs). Same thing goes for Need for Speed: Undercover. I think fresh new IP's can do great in 2009, but the risks are obviously always higher with new IP.
As with regards to Sega I think The Conduit will do better than HOTD: Overkill for instance. And I'm sure that if Prototype and Brütal Legend have the quality I hope for they will do well. I'm not so sure about Dark Void. Seems like a concept that is heading for obscurity regardless of quality.
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