I understand what you are trying to say, but a winner (at least between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray could very well be decided before then if one falls drastically out of favor in the market. This COULD happen, and in fact likely will happen before either side has players out under $200 unless current trends reverse themselves or stabilize. This isn't a matter of blindly following one side over the other or any such thing. Retailers will make the decision themselves if, for an extended period of time, one format consistently and largely outsells the other. It is not to their benefit to carry a format that doesn't sell.
As far as price goes, I can't speak for other parts of the world, or even other parts of the United States, but around me the price difference is negligible as both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD have titles that are more expensive than some titles on the other format and it is fairly evenly split. Though, by my personal tastes, the movies I prefer on Blu-Ray tend to be cheaper than whatever movies are on HD-DVD that I may want to purchase. When the same title happens to exist on both formats, they are uniformly the same price. In fact I've never once seen a movie on one format be more expensive than the same movie on the competing format.
When it comes to the comparisons, yes you're right that over the lifetime of each product the numbers are fairly close. However, considering the 6-month head start HD-DVD had on Blu-Ray, even if the numbers are close, HD-DVD should be at least slightly ahead. This, we know, is not the case. Additionally Blu-Ray is outselling HD-DVD at approximately a 2:1 margin in 2007 with signs that that could increase. This fact makes these comaprisons valid nonetheless, especially if you take the time and look through the entirety of the .pdf file and look at numbers sold for each format and for each title. Whether good or bad, Blu-Ray supporters have something to encourage them here, while HD-DVD supporters could be understandably worried.
When it comes down to it, this is a race into consumer's homes as you more or less said before, but its not at all infeasible that one format could die before the end of the race.
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