I'M NOT WRITTING THIS FOR ANYONE TO READ THIS WALL OF TEXT NOW. I'M WRITING THIS FOR FUTURE REFERENCE SO THAT PEOPLE CAN LOOK BACK ON THIS IN 2012/2013 AND SAY EITHER LOL, WHAT A STUPID RABID FANBOY MORON! OR DAMN, HE GOT IT KINDA RIGHT
I've already written a blog (a rather unpopular one at that) about how I think the numbers for the end of this gen battle for all consoles will look like and I had expressed concern about Microsoft continuing in the hardware side of things for next gen. I'm using this blog to expand a little on this concern and express how I feel things will likely unfold.
There are 2 main predictions I would like to go into and they maybe a little controvercial but I really can't see how not many people haven't see this writing on the wall already. OK the two things are:
That there will be no Xbox3
That the halo franchise will be on the Playstation gaming platform some time next gen
When I take a step back from the dark cloudy mess that's cluttered most gaming sites and forums with rabid fanatic banter, I see a pattern that can only have one meaning - a down hill spiral with the Xbox line. The first xbox came out in 2001 a year later than the PS2 and two years later than the Sega Dream Cast. The latter not being a significant factor during it's launch period. It was herald as the best gaming machine on the market with unparralled power and might and the next successor to the console battle throne. That however turned out far from the truth in the end.
The Xbox needed a big impact in the gaming industry in sales for it's first time out. Those who are under the delusion that it was only meant to be an introduction into the market and was meant to lose in the first place are indeed mad. The xbox was meant to compete and it failed at that. It only managed to move roughly 25 million units to retailers with a sell through of roughly 14 million in NA in comparison to Sony PS2's 120 million to retailers and a sell through of roughly 45 million in NA.
These numbers are significant because if you know even a little about the economics of the industry pertaining to hardware, you'd know it's fairly common knowledge that consoles built like the PS & xbox do sell at loses initially and recoup on initial setup cost at some point in time. The general point in time is usually around that 30-40 million units sold mark. Now going by this, it's obvious MS didn't do nearly enough to recoup on the intial investments on the hardware (thus the reported $4 Billion in loses) and when you check out the software side of things you'll see the PS2 also pounded the xbox by roughly a 3:1 ratio when it came to amount of games sold to retailers (roughly 650million for PS2 in opposed to roughly 180 million for the xbox). This would mean MS would need the Xbox 2 (360) to do siginficantly better than the original xbox if not they'd have to take a page from Sega's history book, learn from it and avoid a 3rd installment which would be really really bad for them.
For the 360 to win or have a chance at surving enough to warrant an Xbox3 it will have to sell like mad and it just isn't doing that so far (regardless of what the media may lead you to believe). A console that had a full head start over it's competition should be a clear winner by it's 2nd year. It should have IPs that totally dazzle the community and leave the other consoles, bearly in their first year with games, in it's dust. There should be no doubt about it's dominance in it's second year and we shouldn't really see statements like "Right now the PS3 is shit but in a year it MAY surpase the 360" on any forum, which we do, cause by now it should be overly obvious that the PS3 can never even hope to catch on to the 360. The 360 only managed to move roughly 2 million units to retailers in the first quater of this year. No console in it's 2nd year out should have sure a poor demand rate.
Here's what I think you'll see happen later down the line. Microsft, sometime in 2009/2010, will bring out the prototype for the Xbox3. They'll have so much bells and whistles on the thing it will make heads spin. They display CGI material that would be so life like it'll make the hardest of critics jaws drop and pronounce that though what the public is seein is indeed CGI, it represents what the games will look like. They pronounce backward compatibility for every single xbox game and will say all the right things gamers want to hear and will do all this flexing for one thign only, to augment public confidence in the xbox line and garner more support for the xbox360. It's fanbase will feel more confident for the future and support 360 products even more however this strategy by MS will be for a reason. They'll want to come out of the industry with the least amount of loses possible and if they can swing it right and actually break even or turn a tiny profit, they'd be joyous.
That the halo franchise will be on the Playstation gaming platform some time next gen
This now brings me to my next point. If/when indeed MS moves out of the hardware side of things it is my belief that they'll be in the red and would not want to accept such massive losses, no business would. As a way to compensate and possibly help bring the books into the black again, MS will continue with software development to try and recoup on losses and they'd have one massive money maker to help this cause - HALO.
With the 360 out of the race there can only be one other major place for the Halo franchise to be on. It won't be a Nintendo exclusive because Nintendo's hardware doesn't support the kind of hardcore FPS type feel the series has been about and it's fanbase aren't massive FPS junkies. It won't be a PC exculsive because well... halo isn't anything close to special for PC gamers and won't have as much of an impact there either. However the one place it would have to go as a focus point would be the one console that it's previous fanbase are likely to be on and that's the PlayStation 4.
With no Xbox3s the 360 fanbase will move to the next big console. They are generally too hardcore for the wii and aren't necessarily hardcore PC guys cause, if so, they wouldn't have a console as their preferred platform in the first place. The only logical place to go would be the PS4. Halo will not be exclusive to the PS3 though. It will be a massively Multiplat juggernut with the franchise going on everything from Mobile phones & the Nintendo DS to PCs and every thing inbetween.
[Update] With Bungies recent break away from MS citing Creative freedom options look for MS to be more open minded about the different genres the Halo franchise could expand to so as to garner as much income as possible to offset intial xbox360 losses. They may possibly introduce a new IP and deploy the same type of aggressive marketing that propled the Halo franchise into god like realms and hope to have more halo-hype type success but that's just me speculating and strategizing. [Update done]
Well there you have it I'm done, phew. Let me just say that I am 100% convinced these events, in some form, will happen. I am not God and do not see into the future but on this issue I don't have to have God like abilities. I can see the pattern clear as day that's all... like the Matrix... kinda :P :) The only way I see an Xbox3 emerging is if Microsoft goes in with a partner company.
Thank you for reading my blog.
[Originally bloged on GT on the 5th of Oct. 2007]
While the Xbox name is far from being the success Microsoft initially wished for, they're now turning in a profit. Microsoft also wants control of the living room and they'll keep salvaging the Xbox name until consoles converge with PCs and TVs so that they've made a name for the Xbox LIVE service, which is what they care for the most, not the hardware.
Also, I doubt PlayStation owners give a rats ass about the Halo franchise, that is why they didn't "jump in", and I doubt that the rabid Xbox fanbase you see here on N4G, like bloodbaby, power of green envy, the Fart, Jason 180 and so on will dare to give Sony a dime. Most Xbox fanboys were not even console gamers to begin with, they were sad PC gamers with no budget so they played 3 year old games with rigs that could barely run those games, and of course, since they didn't care about JRPGs or other console only games to begin with, they played mostly RTS, FPS and a few Western RPGs. If the Xbox brand indeed retires those fanboys will simply lurk back to the PC environment, perhaps they will have jobs by then that will allow them to buy a modest rig that could run Crysis on average settings.
Anyway, Xbox is probably here to stay, just like PlayStation and Nintendo. Microsoft is probably well prepared for the future since from now on online features will only keep increasing. Sony has awaken just in time and the fact that Home is almost in public beta phase and that trophies are coming soon should be an indication that they will be ready too.
And while Nintendo has the most classic games, that is as much as you can say about its lame ass online service. If they don't make their next console online friendly, they're gonna lose a ton of marketshare. The fact that the Wii is successful should reflect how people care the most about convenience, not necessarily value, and if Nintendo doesn't have a convenient online service, Sony and Microsoft, if not others will sh1t on them.
lol what you're gonna show all of us this in 2013 and rub it in our faces. Dude they're already half way done with developement on it. I can't believe I even took the time to comment on this.
Microsoft is a corporation built on making profits not shoveling billions of dollars on a department with very little in return. Now that Bill has left the company for good, the suits running the place are going to decide at some if its worth it to keep bleeding money or just pack up and move on with the next thing. They have Google and others to worry about for market share in the internet arena.
However I see things a bit differently, Microsoft is not going to pull out but rather gradually phase out from the hardware side and let some partner like Dell or Samsung enter into joint venture and take over that side. Again Dell has expressed interest in developing a console version of its Alienware line of gaming PCs. The future is like Xbox Alienware. Dell takes care of the hardware, makes reliable components, no RROD, cheaper parts by outfitting stuff already in the Dell assembly line. PCs and Consoles are pretty much the same thing these days, the 360 is a dual core pc at the most basic level.
With this kind of setup MS can focus on making games and stealing studios and exclusives away from Sony which they are getting pretty good at these days.
Anyway that's my 2 cents, get your Xbox Alienware when it comes out in 2012!