Bill Gates said Blu-ray vs. HD DVD would be the "last" physical format war. He's WRONG.
Video quality will only get better and better, and resolution will only get higher and higher -- which means videos will require more and more storage space.
The video of future will take up more space than even Blu-ray could store.
Right now, we're looking at hi-def, 1080p, that takes up 50 gigs to 100 gigs of data space. If you think that's good enough forever, then you're WRONG.
That's something even more advanced, with even better solution, than the current HD. It's the Ultra Hi-Def Video (UHDV), and it's already on the horizon. It has 16 times the resolution of the current HD. It'll be ready for consumer markets in about 10-15 years, probably sooner.
Get this: one hour of uncompressed UHDV would consume 12 TERABYTES of data. Even Blu-ray can't store that much data.
Someday soon enough, people will want that UHDV in their homes. Currently, only the commercial-grade Protein-Coated Disc (PCD) and some kind of experiemntal nano-technology-based discs can handle much data.
How soon do you think cable will be able to transfer TERABYTES of data instantly? You won't download that insane amount of data over cable in the foreseeable future, certainly not when UHDV arrives for the masses. We'll still need physical format to store all that data.
Oh, and UHDV is not the end of the line... currently, the movies you see in the cinemas and theaters have EIGHT TIMES the resolution of UHDV. One day, maybe in 15-20 years, they'll figured out to put that eight-times-of-UHDV videos into homes... via physical format FIRST, many many years before digital download will be able to handle them.
And the quality of cinema pictures is also improving... this is like a cycle.
Which mean we'll still need bigger and bigger capacity for physical format... and digital download will always fall behind physical format in terms of capacity.
Saying that physical format will go away is just like saying that papers are going away -- ain't gonna happen. Only in Bill's widest wet dreams.
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