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Patcher pulls out of prediction game

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Sarcastic Gamer writes: "Another month, another console war prediction from the Webush Morgan analyst Michael Patcher. Over the past year, Patcher has been giving his predictions on the Console War and gaining notoriety within the gaming community. For the last two months, Patcher has been beating the PS3 drum, extolling to anyone that will listen that the PS3 would beat the 360 in sales in March and April, especially in light of GTA IV's release. He's been wrong. In fact, before GTA's release, he predicted that PS3 sales would cause over 2 million units sold against only 1 million due to GTA alone. Wrong again."
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vasilisk - contributor
Published: 587 days 20 hours ago | Article | PlayStation 3 | Xbox 360 | Wii | Sony PSP | Nintendo DS | PlayStation 2 | Gaming | PC
 
 

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-EvoAnubis- - 588 days ago
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1 - LMAO!
Dude, it's Friday, and this is Sarcastic Gamer. Do I really have to connect the dots for you here?
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Genesis5 - 587 days 23 hours ago
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1.1 -
Well he could always get a job at VG chartz. I here they're looking for people that are wrong all the time.
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-EvoAnubis- - 587 days 20 hours ago
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1.2 -
I have no idea how this got past pending. What idiot approved this "story?"
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dktxx2 - 588 days ago
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2 -
GOD DAMMIT I HATE THESE ARTICLES!!! They keep getting my hopes up.
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TruthbeTold - 587 days 23 hours ago
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3 - Too bad...
I wish this was true.
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4 Bladestar | 587 days 19 hours ago - User only got 1 bubble - Show
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AclayPS3 - 587 days 19 hours ago
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5 -
GTA4 DID stimulate more PS3 sales during the release of GTA4, but I don't think that those numbers were reflected in April NPD sale data because GTA4 came out just a few days before May.

I think that the winner from GTA4 console sales will be revealed in May. Based upon recent statements from Gamestop and Sony about PS3 console sales after GTA4 launched and the "spike" in PS3 sales, I think that PS3 sales will top Xbox 360 sales in May.

The PS3 and 360 console sales were only 900 units apart. It's not like the Xbox 360 sold 250,000 units and the PS3 sold 188,000 units, because it wasn't that big of a margin and it's nothing for Microsoft to even brag about.

In my opinion, what really matters is which console is selling better worldwide... I wonder which console is that.... oh yea, it's the PS3.

Microsoft can't win the console war just in the United States alone. When you look at how bleak the U.S. Economy looks right now, Microsoft's dependancy on the U.S. Economy may be there biggest obstacle until the Economy can bounce back.

And the PS3 is the console (not including the Wii) that has the Most potential for tremendous growth because of the large PS2 install base and the fact that Sony hasn't even started to release it's "System Seller games". The only thing that's holding back PS3 sales right now is the lack of a Exclusive "System Seller" game title, but no need to fear, Metal Gear Solid 4 is almost here! And MGS4 is the first of MANY System Seller game titles for the PS3.
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-EvoAnubis- - 587 days 18 hours ago
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5.1 - Well said.
I believe that's worth a bubble.
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5.2 Bladestar | 587 days 18 hours ago - User only got 1 bubble - Show
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ApocalyPS3 - 587 days 17 hours ago
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5.3 -
360 had genuine console movers back in the holiday sales frenzy, most notabley Mass Effect Bioshock and Halo3 a couple months prior (which still counts, as those who waiting until xmas got their copies then).

If we try to map it out, 360 went strong Q3 06 to Q4 07, and hit its 10 mil in US mark riding high off of a good holiday season AND a strong Q1 08. Most of 06 may not have had as many great hits, although 360 was still gaining momentum.

Gears did A LOT for the Live service, as even today there are players who log on to get their high off of a great online experience. I can only imagine the wonders it could have done for Live if it were a lanuch title. Later on, Halo3 would basically keep those servers running hot.

Multi platform games kept interest high in BOTH consoles, albiet amidst rabid fanboys' constant claims of superiority toward THEIR console's version. Most notably, Assassin's Creed was bashed mercilessly (I'd go as far as to say VICTIMIZED) for its (percievably) inferior PS3 showing.

A game that I play today in awe, wondering what Jade takes in the morning to keep her sanity after such harsh criticisms.

Bioshock holds the distinct honor of being one of the few FPSs I'll play for the STORY. And Mass Effect has a great story as well, interweaved masterfully into the game the way YOU want to play it, they way YOU want to chose it.

People, to me this means that 360 is doing remarkably well
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mistertwoturbo - 587 days 17 hours ago
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5.4 -
Bladestar, that "ps2 had 120,000,000 consoles" arguement is invalid. Metal Gear Solid 2 came out in 2002, the world wide PS2 install base was probably only around 35-40,000,000 at the time. MGS2 sold at least 5.5 million units. MGS3 sold only roughly 3 million units (many were turned off by the jungle setting)

So yeah it's not going to sell consoles like Halo 3 did, but it's not like it's not going to sell either. So stop with the whole "ps2 had 120 million consoles!" crap.
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The Lazy One - 587 days 16 hours ago
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5.5 - "Microsoft can't win without the world? well Sony can't win without the US..."
You got a bubble just for this line...

"The PS3 and 360 console sales were only 900 units apart. It's not like the Xbox 360 sold 250,000 units and the PS3 sold 188,000 units, because it wasn't that big of a margin and it's nothing for Microsoft to even brag about."

You are missing the point. The point isn't that the sales were similar, but just edged out by 360. It's that the PS3 was predicted by many to outsell the 360 by 50k plus, when in reality it was outsold by just over 1k. The 360 is getting drastically underestimated REPEATEDLY by the media in it's sales potential, that's why this is a big deal.

If I bet you that Tony Stewart was going to lap busch in a race, and busch came out winning by a nose, it would be a pretty lame excuse for me to say that he only won by a couple inches when I never thought he'd be within a couple miles.
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ry-guy - 586 days 7 hours ago
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5.6 - @Mistertwotwo
I'm sorry but you can't argue install base at the time of sales and still use the lifetime sales data.

Unfortunately, there is no good website to exam historical sales data available to the free intertubes (I don't trust VGC. Sorry, they are predictors and not recorders.)

So, since we are looking at historical data all we can exam is the lifetime sales of the game itself versus the lifetime install base.

Also, those arguing that MGS was a PS2 game seem mistaken. Metal Gear Solid was PS1, Metal Gear Solid 2 & 3 were PS2 games.

Just trying to clear the air.
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RecSpec - 587 days 18 hours ago
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6 -
Patcher? I was calling him Pachter? Why didn't anyone tell me?

(It's a Simpsons joke, by the way)
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Redlight - 587 days 18 hours ago
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7 -
"The PS3 is NEARLY in front. The PS3 will be in front NEXT time. The PS3 will be the best SOMETIME in the FUTURE. I know I've said it EVERY month for the last year, but THIS time I'm right. THIS time, trust me"

Really? How many times do I have to listen to this stuff? The predictions were that the PS3 GTAIV sales would destroy the the 360 sales. It hasn't happened. Deal with it.
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Jon Cage - 587 days 15 hours ago
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7.1 - Nuh UH
The sales of GTA4 didn't have a chance to reflect on April cause they were just from the last week of April. You just watch for May!!! You'll see, yeah buddy, and THEN you'll be sorry. yeah yeah

Look we can all be sarcastic gamers :D

But who knows what is gonna happen. I know I am going to contribute to PS3 sales for June cause I am waiting for the 80GB to be available. So there you go fanboys. You can count 1 more for June. You're welcome. I always get all the systems of each generation. I just get them in the order of which have the games I want most.
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rgun - 587 days 18 hours ago
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8 - Why?
Why the hell is this posted as news? I hate sarcastic gamer...
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Main_Street_Saint - 587 days 18 hours ago
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9 -
I hate guys that try to predict what is going to sell more. It's all speculation.
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thehitman - 587 days 17 hours ago
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10 - @blade
U missed something the US is as big as half of EU which is why its so dominant and to get facts straight consoles sell more overseas then in the US. MS be the only exception to that. No company including MS are making as much profit in the US as they are in other continents such as EU. The dollar has sunk so much down the pit that some places in other countries dont even accept it. Why you think there is such a "shortage" of wii consoles in the US because Nintendo does not make as much money on every wii sold. Not to add the ps3 is worth like 4x the wii and the 360 maybe 2x the wii you think that companies such as Sony are going to be happy with losing money?

Also I know a lot of hardocre gamers out there who still cant afford a ps3 and MGS4 may be the last straw that makes them do what they can to get 1. This is the last MGS and the first on a next-gen console you dont think ppl are going to buy the system for MGS4??? Actually your comment is already proven wrong with the bundle sold out in canada's major retail store.
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edonus - 587 days 16 hours ago
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10.1 - Dont quote me on this (my numbers maybe slightly off) but...
America is the lowest percent bias market in the world this gen. Europe is around 60% and Japan is around 92%. America is about 20%. Meaning that know matter what good things have come to the 360 in Europe approx. 60% of ppl ignore it, in Japan its 92% in America its 20%. Thats why the 360 sells so good in America everyone else are highly pre-dipsosed to being anti-360. Its markeing and high level business.

I'm 85% percent sure that MGS4 isnt going to move anymore than 150,000 extra Ps3s(if that). The last one only did around 4million with an installed base of over 120 million. Its safe to assume that most of them already jumped in and bought a Ps3 the others....well what ever economical struggle has prevented them from joining wont just magically disappear for enough of them to make the jump.
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edonus - 587 days 17 hours ago
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11 - He fails because hes a businessman...
and not an artist. He calculates by numbers the given numbers and the problem is the the most accurate numbers are the most diluted. For example if you love video games and you say the one selling the most consoles must be the best, you would be totally wrong because the Wii is selling the most but (for someone who loves games not just like or wanna kill a few hours a week) it wont satisfy your needs. The numbers are have to be analized. You have to boil everything down. When I see the Ps3 sells picking up and they havent released a single critically acclaimed, AAA game, and Blu Ray just dropped by 40% the true numbers show that Ps3s are being bought with out comparison or thought. PPl like that cant be factored in to numbers if you want to guage if a game or product will be successful because that shows a programmed buyer, if something isnt part of the program it wont be successful. Gta4 is, so its one of the highest selling games on the system. Anyway he only researches as far as the new and numbers that come accross his desk so he can only be as right as the amount of lies the numbers tell.

Good ridance (I hope I spelled that right, i'm drunk).
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ShiftyLookingCow - 587 days 15 hours ago
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12 -
Michael Butcher would be a more appropriate name. Even people in comatose state can do a better job than him.
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bioshock - 587 days 14 hours ago
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13 - there are lotta people here
bashing MGS for selling 4 mil. for those i can only say tht. the stats show tht mgs 1 sold 6 mil and mgs2 7 mil, but 3 sold 4 mil and the reason was just it had big boss in it....mgs is sold only becoz people wants the feel of snake not any other character...the whole reason MGS being epic is about "solid snake" and this time around he back with his final mission plus new versatile controls which attract most people these days, plus u can play game as a shooter and mark this, dont feel tht this mgs wont make a dent in sales, with sony goin full flow with campaigning this im sure u can get a big launch of mgs, may be matching the halo launch...MGS is in this industry when games like halo and gears werent even there....this new breed of gamers are sick to belv how good these games have been for the industry if it werent for games like MGS, this industry would have been at a different point rite now....
if u ask me what games like gears, COD, halo,resistance have done nothing to industry, they sell yeh but what are these, just another shooter, they dont define what genra is, how many time u will play games like ths, i mean look ur self playing shooter after 8 years, u think this shooter craze gonna last tht long with the amount of shooter coming, no develper is trying new thing a new experience these days, ingreidents for good games these days are a small single campaine with aliens menace, plus multi player, thts it.....
respect the game which try something new for you, if cant afford it thn dont bash it, MGS series has always brought something new on the table always,and people who dont get to experience it are the ones to bash it................
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edonus - 587 days 12 hours ago
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13.1 -
Actually Halo Defines the Genre, and Gears defines the genre. Halo 3 is the most balanced console FPS you can own. Some people hate it but that does not change the facts if you really put Halo 3 on the chopping block and run its merits, no FPS on a console is anywhere near it. Gears aswell, there are no other close quaters combat TPS like Gears, they compare they havent even made any. Dont say uncharted that is a adventure game it only even gets compared to Gears cause the graphhics are top notch, and they have a cover system. The game plays morelike a Tomb Raider with a cover system then Gears. There are no other games made that are like Gears.

I'll give MGS the stealth spy game genre crown though. It is a genre defining title. I dont think its reception will be as big as ppl think. The first one was a new experince maxing out the Ps1, the second the first time on the Ps2, by part 3 and with Splinter expanding the genre 3 slipped off. MGS is a hardcore series (this will show if you are good at lying to yourself) like Ninja Gaiden. Thats not a true casual gamers game. When I think of Metal Gear I think time and skill. NG2 is gonna sell good for the 360 since its one of their flagship titles and need more of these kind of games. MGS4 will sell to the faithful but thats isnt a game you can really hype up. Once you play it its paced to were first impressions arent mind blowing. Its a mind blowing game but you have to really play it.
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MK_Red - 587 days 13 hours ago
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14 -
"The Dark Knight movie will be awesome"
Good one :)
I hope it's indeed true though it shouldn't be just awesome. Dark Knight should be the BEST. Why So Serious!?
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lizard81288 - 586 days 23 hours ago
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15 - wait a second....
you can get paid for predicting things?
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ShiftyLookingCow - 586 days 9 hours ago
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15.1 -
oh certainly! Just make sure your predictions are as vague yet as intelligent sounding and as fantastic as possible. You can get good money for it especially if you start a cult with things like alien visions and such.
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