Analyst: Modern Warfare 2 To Be Biggest 2009 Title?

Janco Partners' Mike Hickey is estimating sales of 11.1 million units for Infinity Ward's Modern Warfare 2 in 2009, with a $338 million first day, suggesting it will end up "the largest video game release" of the year.

The analyst firm's Hickey currently has a 'Buy' rating for Activision Blizzard's stock, with a price target of $17, and says the following in the introduction to his analysis on the game:

"We believe Modern Warfare 2 will likely be the largest video game release for [calendar year] 2009. For the Company's fiscal Q409 period (Dec. ending), we anticipate the sell through to consumers of 11.1 million units for an estimated retail value of $803 million and sell-in approximating 12.4 million units, for an approximated sales value of $666 million (we assume demand is 90% of supply).

[m23]

I think there is a very high probability of this happening. Call of Duty is a household name by now so this will probably end up selling the most.

[cmrbe]

However i do wonder if it will sell as well as COD4.

Obviously there are more consoles out now but i wonder if the majority of those that bought COD4 would again buy MW 2.

It will be interesting to see what happens.

[Elvfam511]

I'm one person that isn't going to buy MW2 i stop on cod4 eh the franchise is getting boring to ME <--

[Madgunner]

but to me.. its not an INSTANT buy yet.. and im one of the few people who enjoyed cod2 and cod1 more than 4... honestly i think WW2 era is better and they should go back to it ...

PS: off topic .. i have no idea how i got to four bubbles .. lol i made one little innocent RROD joke and i get banned for 3 days during e3.. and i come back and i went from 8 bubbles to 4 WTF

[CyberCam]

I just want to play the single player part of the game. As long as they still implement those stupid perks (martydom, juggernaut, last stand and perk where you shoot through concrete walls & large steel garbage bins) I'm staying away from the multi-player.

My question is why have any walls or buildings at all, if you can just shoot threw them? They should just make all the maps wide open areas, because cover is non existent in that game. There's no stategy involved in the game, you just run around shooting at everything you see... personally I like to use my brain & think at least a bit when gaming.

[xwabbit]

I will get it for PC... free tho

[Giriath]

Probably in sales, but in quality? Nuhhhh. I have a hard time being as impressed as everyone else about the footage from E3. The climbing reminded me of Uncharted, only much less dramatic. The snowmobile ride looked clunky and awkward to me, and the rest was just your everyday point-and-shooter. The console graphics are average, too.

I'm sure the MP will be better than any other first-person-shooter's this year, but Uncharted 2 remains my top canditate for GOTY of 2009.

[Gamer_Politics]

yeah this game will be the biggest selling game of 09...

[otherZinc]

His numbers are highly inflated.

MW2 will be the highest selling game on the PS3 this fall: about 1.5 million.

MW2 will be the 2nd highest selling game on the 360: 2.3million.

Halo 3:ODST will be the highest selling game on 360: 4million.

I will not buy this iteration for the 1st time, I'm tired of scripted gameplay, the omission of co-op through the mission, that should be mandatory in 2009, short campaign I don't play much online, & its super linear level design.

& I've purchased COD 2, COD 3, COD 4, COD:W@W- 2 copies for co-op, & I'm not buying MW2.

Infinity Ward had enough time to fix some of this, I'll wait for them to try harder with MW3.

[The Matrix]

Biggest as in best sales? Yes. Biggest as in highest reviews and most hype. Not as likely. Assassin's Creed 2 ftw.

[pwnsause]

isnt this already obvious, considering that the game will be multiplatform, not to mention its predecessor COD4 sold that much.

[Ace Killa 08]

so if COD MW2 competing with COD4 numbers that no prob for me, it can compete even to halo if i wants to

the game will sell and it will break records i wonder if anyone has any data on pre orders i know they started last month or so i just want to see what numbers they have so far and keep track of them

[TheColbertinator]

It could take on Halo 3 and GTA4 numbers if promotion is strong.

[hitokiri]

Even without promotion I think it could take them. People are waiting for this game more than any other game.

Me? Personally I'm a fighting game player more than a shooter, which I think has become an overpopulated genre like fighting games in the 90s...

God I miss the 90s. Great games, good times.

Oh... yeah, back to the story, I think I'll definitely get it cause COD4 was one shooter I enjoyed.

[XDF]

1. Modern Warfare 2
2. Halo 3 ODST
3. Assassin's Creed
4. Madden 2010
5. Resident Evil 5
6. Guitar Heroes 5
7. Forza 3
8. UFC Undisputed
9. Splinter Cell Conviction
10. Uncharted 2

[PotNoodle]

I don't think UC2, Splinter cell conviction or Forza 3 will be in the top 10 for 2009.. not because i don't think they're good games.. far from it - i can't wait for them.. but because there are other games out there that for some reason have a larger appear and will sell more due to their name...

Top 20, probably - but i don't think they will be top 10 - which is a shame because those games probably deserve it.

[LukaX23]

...

[iron]

You forgot about Mass Effect 2. Personally, for me it would be one of my top 5.

[N2NOther]

Mass Effect 2 isn't releasing this year.

[pippoppow]

Which will be the best games in terms of quality. Sales do not make a game. Does anyone actually buy a game because it has good sales? I know I've never done that. Let's see what the top rated games are for 2009 are which is way more important. Ehh, all it takes this gen is for Devs to create a good game with shooting mechanics and the younger gamers will eat it up.

[kewlkat007]

Well which ones...I'm sure there are 1 or 2 some on the Nintendo Wii though

[Cassarole]

COD4 was awesome!!! BRING IT ONNNNNN... cant waitt

[RememberThe357]

N4G brings us an other "no sh*t" moment.

[Cassarole]

yeah but this site is good for passing time..

[RememberThe357]

And I have passed A LOT of time.

[PotNoodle]

Yes.

[hitokiri]

Short, but straight to the point. LOL

[Dante43]

No doubt it will sell on every console, looking foward to playing it!

[TheMART]

GOTY or at least shooter of the year 2009. KZ2 eat your heart out!!!

[silverchode]

modern warfare2>kz2

[silvacrest]

i dont get why COD is so popular, i would rather play halo 3 or resistance 2, both of there stories are longer and more fun in my opinion but i have heard of people never even playing the single player and just going straight for multiplayer

each to there own i guess

[N2NOther]

Because it's fun and addictive.

[na2ru1]

If controls and complex button config restricts a player, then it's just another game.

COD had such natural feel and flow, and that my friends is what created that strong immersiveness. The player was free to make natural choices, moves and reactions.

[Sir Ken_Kutaragi]

Yes i know i must not be bitter but if 'Infinity Ward' can't even be bothered doing Rumble+Trophies for the PS3 version of COD4 and giving PS3 owners a bit more 'LOVE'(i.e They seem to be SUCKING UP TO M$!!!)then those 'C' won't get my money!!! :-/
COD4 was still a good game on the PS3 tho without those 2 things.
But with 'KillZone 2'(out now) + 'MAG' coming out this year i'm not sure i want another FPS.
+ I prefer PS3 ONLY Games really, they are BETTER in every way!!! ;-P

[Ravage27]

and most people who buy games don't really do much research online, so they have a right to confident that MW2 will sell like hotcakes. In fact i'll be VERY surprised if it didn't outdo GT4 sales.

oh well,this coming holiday season, i'm content with being the minority who spend their hard-earned cash on more deserving titles (a.k.a UC2).
I just wish sometimes that my fellow ps3 owners will open their eyes a bit and realise that there are plenty of GOOD games out there that are not sequels of ps2 classics.

[lucifon]

Dont have to be an analyst to tell someone that

[QuantumWake]

Modern Warfare 2 is going to sell like freakin hot cakes. Midnight launches, parties, girls stripping......... *And then I woke up*.

[MriownBOTH]

consider at my gamestop (a small gamestop in a small town) has around 75 pre-orders all ready and the game is not out until nov..

i suggest pre-ordering the CE ASAP

YES

THIS GAME WILL BE HUGE!

[randomwiz]

it doesn't take an analyst to know this.

[BenderDGreat82]

COD4:MW sold like hotcakes since day 1 and it only grew in popularity with positive word-of-mouth. I'm 100% sure that MW2 will be one of the fastest selling games in gaming history...no doubt! 2009 is unbelievably one of the greatest years for games and it will only be better when MW2, L4D2, and Bioshock 2 come out. It's going to be a busy, busy year.

[eagle21]

This is not a diss, just my opinion. To each his own.

[BenderDGreat82]

Ummm...ok...thanks?

[bigboss911]

turn off auto aim, and have less laggy servers then its a day one for me. Sometimes Cod4 and Cod W@W are laggy for no reason. Even when everyone has like 3 bars and above. WTF? They should use their profit from 4 and make better servers.

[na2ru1]

COD WAW sold well regardless of how good or bad it was. COD4 has the most largest install base of the FPS. But hang on, have they seriously got rid of the title "Call of Doody"?

That title is what sold WAW so maybe, this could be a problem for the franchise.

[BenderDGreat82]

I think you mean "Duty"...Call of Doody is what you answer after visiting Joey's BBQ Shack.

[CSM-101e]

are they saying they're going to sell 11 million copies in the 4th quarter alone?

[Jandre02]

Modern Warfare is bigger than Halo due to it being on two consoles. 10,000,000+.

[Daoshai]

MW2 will outsell GT5 by 5:1

[silverchode]

it wont.

[JustinSaneV2]

It will. I give you a 200% guarantee on that.

[Ace Killa 08]

i say it will since there is more consoles (ps3 and 360) and pc gamers out there and really GT5 is only on the ps3 soo the game will beat GT5 now will it be fair no i dont think so, since a multiplat game going against an exclusive console game

[poeo]

i'm strangely not hyped for MW2 at all... maybe the time will come. or maybe i just played COD4 way too much and had enough.

anyone else feel the same way? i mean... just adding snowmobiles and iceclimbing and whatnot is not going to make it feel fresh enough, im afraid.

[Ace Killa 08]

wait for the beta that won me for MW and also made me avoid W@W

[A LIVING LEGEND]

Poeo.COD4 was fun and I have little doubt that MW2 will be fun.Snowmobiles?iceclimbing? sure,whatever,sounds good.
It will sell a disgusting amount of copies and rightfully so I suppose.
I for one,am unfortunately 'shootered out' for the time being but that may change(most likely).A man cannot live on shooters alone......or can he? idk,I need an rpg/racing binge before I hit the shooters again.
Also,if martyrdom returns I shall not.=)

[Javier19]

For sure

COD4 started something Huge

Now COD, or MW or whatever way you want to look at it is a blockbuster no doubt.

[JustinSaneV2]

This is kind of a "duh" topic. The only game that could possibly surpass MW2 in sales is The Sims 3. The Xbox 360 will have Halo 3 ODST which MIGHT be close to being a "competitor" but I don't think it will be anywhere near as successful as it's predecessor. The PS3's only likely competitor is going Gran Turismo 5 but it won't come remotely close to MW2's figures.

[Ravage27]

yes,what u said will probably happen, which is why like i said, it is a sad world