360/Mediocre, PS3/Moderate to Strong, Wii/Strong: Holiday Gaming Outlook By CNET

CNET Author Don Reisinger reports:

Now that NPD has released September 2007 figures, it strikes as quite interesting that so many people were taken aback by the Xbox 360's jump to first place in hardware sales. In fact, if you remember an article I wrote back in September, it would have told you everything you needed to know about hardware sales for September.

But instead, there are a host of journalists and pundits making such a big deal out of the Xbox 360's rise, as if it wasn't expected. As I've said here hundreds of times before: videogames sell consoles, not the other way around.

So, with that in mind, I thought it would be nice to take a look at what is coming soon to a console near you and discuss what I think will happen by the time January rolls around. And while I still believe the Wii is a fad and Sony has some work to do, my conclusions may surprise you.

[ElementX]

Lame article! It says "videogames sell consoles, not the other way around." Yet he only mentions Mario Galaxy for the Wii and doesn't even mention ANY games for the PS3. I think the 360 has the best lineup because there are simply more games. I'm not anti Sony, however I think with two years of games under the belt, the 360 does have more appeal to the mass market.

EDIT:
People will definitely consider the new lower priced PS3 model, however they'll also be looking at the selection of games. I go to Gamestop (yeah, i know) and see one shelf of ps3 games and 3 shelves of 360 games.

[ElementX]

Nice, a disagree. Lets hear your statement.

[MK_Red]

I agree with you on the Wii front. "Videogames sell consoles" and yet none of the big games of holiday is coming for Wii aside from Mario Galaxy.
Do they even realise how much sales games like Call of Duty 4, Assassin's Creed and Rock Band could bring? Even Guitar Hero 3 has better chance on PS3, 360, PS2 and PC because the average casual Wii owners won't spend so much money on a game.

[crazy25000]

"the 360 does have more appeal to the mass market"

i disagreed with this because of the lineups and pricecut for the ps3......i know a lot of people that have been waiting for the price cut and the games that they want, especially mgs4

[The Swordsman]

While I do not agree entirely with your post Element X, I do agree with your point about the Wii. The Xbox 360 has already released some great games in the last month, with Mass Effect still to come, while the PS3 has released both Warhawk and Heavenly Sword recently, and have two great games, Uncharted and Ratchet and Clank Future, yet to come. But the Wii? The last good exclusive it had was Metroid Prime 3, and before that Super Paper Mario, and before that... I actually don't think there was any good exclusive before that. And now, the only exclusive worth purchasing this Christmas for the Wii is Super Mario Galaxy, and after that it's a long waith until Super Smash Bros. Brawl.

[b777conehead]

i disagree theirs a bunch of great ps3 games coming out now and all thru 2008 and beyond and if i am a parent i'm going to buy the more reliable console .so my kids wouldn't get up set at having to ship the 360 for repairs the ps3 game libary will only continue to grow and grow

[unsunghero28]

Why is it that Super Mario Galaxy is the only game ever mentioned for Wii? Don't ask me. Well, it will be the bestselling Wii (possibly all platform) game of the holiday season. But that's not the point.

The Wii's also got Manhunt 2, Battalion Wars 2, Fire Emblem, Naruto, and DBZ coming, all exclusives. Those are pretty big software titles for a lot of gamers.

[JasonXE]

He contradicts himself and say nothing about the ps3 lineup. All he had to say was "ps3 cost less so its going to have a surge". So can't the 360 do the same thing? Then he tries to act all high and mighty to say "I predicted the outcome of september but every game media outlet seems surpise". We all knew already retard. Mass effect is a goty cand. and it hasn't even came out yet. That should atleast carry it till jan. along with other great multiplatform games along with the ps3 lineup. Wii, super mario.. k, what else?

"Yet he only mentions Mario Galaxy for the Wii and doesn't even mention ANY games for the PS3."

[jessupj]

while i'm planning the buy a ps3, i think this guy is a little bias. 360 and ps3 both have great line ups. but i don't agree with the 'parents buying the ps3 when the wii sells out statement'. i'd like to believe it, but the 360 is slightly cheaper. there's a lot of mindless parents out there that arn't educated about current consoles (specially soccer mums) and will most likely grab the 360 without a second though. however the price is very close so they might ask the retail assistants and make an informed opinion, that's what i'd like to see anyway.

bottom line, i think the ps3 and 360 will be about even but we'll see what happens.

[sanderFVCKINcohen]

This holiday season PS3 NNNEEEDDDDSSS, I repeat, NNNEEEDDSSS to do better than the 360 this comeing holiday. They need to make people want to buy a PS3 for the holidays with hopes that its not only Final Fantasy or MGS4 they have as there only big guns. If they fail at sailing more consoles this comeing holiday than 360, than I believe they are going to have a very hard time.

[WonderboyIII]

The Wii covers an area the 360 and the PS3 don't cover. its nearly independent set by itself and the intersection or common ground between it and other hardware is minimal. So the Wii is safe as long as it continues to feed its customers. The 360 and PS3 are fighting for the same land. The 360 has the larger install base, and the bigger library. That forced third party exclusive to come its way. That with the multiplatform games and few inhouse exclusive pushed it where it is. The only way the PS3 can compete is by producing more inhouse exclusives to help them accelerate their install base. The developers are fearing the ps3 wont sell their products and since there are difficulties with the cell development, this is giving them more reasons to wing and complain. PS3 need to send teams to developers to help out until they are familiar more with the cell. They need to educate and support those studios whenever possible.(They probably are, but is that enough?) The 360 needs to keep games coming and no matter where they come from they will help it stay strong.
This is not the time for PS3 to be even. Their well known inhouse studios should show us what a ps3 can do...before it is too late and the install base of the 360 triples or quadruples the ps3 base. Sure MGS,and FF will help, but are they that hard to be ported to a 360? If the PS3's base isnt too large, are they going to cover the cost of development? PS3 needs third party games that a 360 port (if ported) will be laughed on, and that wont happen until it uses its inhouse studios to raise its install base. Otherwise the cell would be nothing to third party developers just like the stronger saturn to a weaker playstion was also nothing to them. We as gamers, do not wish that to happen, as it will take many games away from us.

Developers can be loyal, but in the end of the day, money is what brings the bread to the table.

[MK_Red]

Wow, CNETs is either misinformed or just plain dumb.

Wii looking strong!? Aside from Mario Galaxy, Wii is DEAD this Holiday.
Assassin's Creed, Mass Effect, Uncharted, UT3, Haze, Rock Band, Call Of Duty 4, Jericho, Soldier Of Fortune, Ratchet & Clank PS3 are the hottest games of holiday and last time I checked NONE of them are coming for Wii.
PC has a better situation than Wii and few of those games as well as Crysis are coming for PC.

Line-ups:
PS3 and 360: Strong
PC: Mediocre
Wii: Weak

[Skerj]

Hahaha you're so right again MK. Wii actually has 2 more games in Nights 2 and No More Heroes, but it's still dwarfed by the competition's lineup.

[jcgamer]

I agree...BOTH 360 and PS3 line-ups for holiday 07 look very strong...I'm excited for both...I would call a tie because of the exceptional third-party that is multiplatform...and first party is simply a matter of taste, though I agree that the PS3 certainly has more first party games to choose from...the Wii would be last in my opinion...however, I approved this story simply because everyone is entitled to their own opinion and it will be interesting to see what our fellow N4G's think...so what do the rest of you guys think?

*My top picks are Mass Effect and Uncharted*

[MK_Red]

Skerj, good point and thanks for mentioning NiGHTs and No More Heroes. They are both games that I'm really anticipating but don't think they'll sell much, speciall NMH from Killer 7 creator Suda 51.

jcgamer, great comment. My top pick is Assassin's Creed followed by Mass Effect, UT3, Call of Duty 4 and Uncharted.

[jcgamer]

that's a great list you got there too bro...I'll most likely play Assassin's Creed at some point...so many to play...but that's the fun...

[Snipes20]

I don't think so.

IF you look into it, the Wii has more titles coming out this Holiday season than the other two consoles. BUT a good chunk of those titles are shovelware/poor remakes/short-dev-cycle games. The other titles look good, though. MOHH2 looks to be a great shooter, so does BiA:Double Time, and BWii. How about about rail shooters. Ghost Squad, RE:UC, and Zelda. They are all strong titles. Manhunt 2 anyone? I know that title is NOT a casual one. Maybe NiGHTS is what it takes. Or Mario Galaxy. Fire Emblem is probably one of the best strategy games coming out. How about GHIII? That should be good. Mario and Sonic looks awesome. That's not good enough for you then how about these? Trauma Center: New Blood, Zack and Wiki, Rayman Raving Rabbids 2, Soulcaliber Legends, and Rygar: Battle of Argus.

No, the Wii lineup isn't weak and the Wii isn't dead. I could argue for the 360 or the PS3, but other people have made valid points with their lists, so I won't repeat them.

I think all the home consoles have strong lineups one way or another. What matters more is what TYPE of games you like; that will determine which console is more of a value to you this Holiday season.

[DeckUKold]

and those people don't no anything about those games why because nintendo is a bad marketing company. those games is actually better than the 360 /ps3 assasins creed looks corny and can't be compared to POP all it has is the athletics but the fighting is trash

Mass effect OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG i never saw that TRASHEST SH!T IN MY LIFE i thought it was hot but then i saw a video and EWWWWWWWW listen im being real i swear but how can u like that piece of SH!T it sound like silencers with big guns show me a crazy vid of it PLZ cause if that is it i'll stick with atari's et it's a 50's movie star warz is a WHOLE LOT BETTER so plz without showing me proof DO NOT ABSOLUTELY DO NOT MENTION MASS EFFECT AGAIN

[uxo22]

Gentlemen, that was excellent. I swear this was the FIRST time I read at least 10 comments in a row after a possible flamebait article where everyone acted as gentlemen and ladies (if appl.)

I applaud you all, this is all I ever wanted to see on this site, a bunch of guys with different consoles, actually disagreeing and agreeing with one another and doing it in a mature way. No one bashed the other console (except for a couple of guys tried to a little bit but it was ignored by the others.)

Overall, GREAT reading. And I agree with you all, the CNET guy is a bonehead looking for some attention, but the attention is got was the attention that says "he doesn't really know what the hell he's talking about." I hope all three console have records sales this holiday seasons because to me that means I will have plenty of PS3 and 360 titles to keep me busy until spring. GO GAMING!

[Nicosia]

its funny about this blog post its pretty sour about games. I think he forgot that COD4 beta was exlcusive to the xbox360, which has a lot of people impressed. Also you can't deny the x360 has a larger install base, which means the percentage of people buying it will be higher (we will see how it plays out). The sony ps3 prediction is pretty strong, but like he said the upcoming games are not something to overly brag about. But its to much on the selling of the ps3 because of the lower price....while the xbox360 talks about the games... mmm..kinda weird.

[ElementX]

Yeah, 360's larger install base. People play it at a friend's place and they "want one too". I see the PS3 doing well also, but I think the 360 will be right up there in terms of sales.

[Nicosia]

Thats what i'm saying, people who have the xbox360 will be buying most of the multi-plat games. In europe its a pretty big diffrence, lets say you buy a console 400+70 euro for a game its a pretty big stump. But people who already have the x360 will go for the x360 version no matter what revieuws say. The ps3 has a strong exlcusive lineup..which will sell because of the base, multi will mosly sell on other consoles.

[drtysouf21]

is that people don't factor in all the games that are already out for each system.

360 has a great lineup already released
PS3 has a great lineup already released
Wii has an ok lineup but I've been bored with it for months

People are not only buying consoles this holiday for whats coming out they are also buying it for whats already been released so i don't know why none of these article take that into consideration.

[MK_Red]

Superb point. I for one will be getting PS3 for all the PS3 games not just Uncharted and R&C. I love Lair ( I know what you think but I'm just a Factor-5 fanboy, HS and MotorStorm.
Seriously, Aside from Zelda TP and Metorid Prime 3, Wii has not great game.

And the thing I want to mention is that people will also be getting consoles for their future games. When people bought 360s, last christmas, most of them bought the consoles for Halo 3 and other future games.
Many people will be the now cheaper PS3 for it's future games like MGS4, FFXIII and God of War 3. The same goes for 360 and games like Alan Wake, Fable 2 and Gears of War 2.

Aside from SSBB, Wii has NO game for 2008 unless one considers WiiFit a "game". (Which I don't and think of WiiFit more of an overpriced Scale)

[jcgamer]

you bring up a great point...not only will holiday titles sell, but also existing titles from earlier this year and last year...the Bioshocks, Gears, Resistance, Motorstorm, on and on...so with ALL included...man, the PS3 AND 360 ROCKS this holiday...game on...

[unsunghero28]

Believe it or not, the Wii does indeed have games coming out for it in '08. A couple of the top of my head...

NiGHTS
Brawl (of course)
Mario Kart Wii
Monster Hunter 3
Okami
Disaster: Day of Crisis
Final Fantasy: Crystal Chronicles

Every single one of those is pretty important to the hardcore gamer, and every single one of those is Wii exclusive. I'm not going to say it has a better lineup than the PS3, but saying it only has Brawl isn't really true.

And, even if it did just have Brawl, I think there are a lot of gamers who would STILL buy it.

[tocrazed4you]

That guy is dumb... Ps3 has ratchet and clank tod, haze, and uncharted coming out. Xbox 360 has mass effect and well Mass effect... but it also has all the top multi platform games like cod4, assassins creed, and other games. I don't get how the wii has a strong lineup with just one game? SMG will be good but I don't think it will cause anything like Halo did for the xbox 360...

[Chris_GTR1]

sony paypatrol^^^^^^

[jack who]

in teams of game this holiday
360: Strong

PS3 and PC: Mediocre

Wii: wat game?

[Mikey_Gee]

NEWS FLASH ..

ANYONE WHO RELIES ON CNET NEEDS TO BE HUNG !!

Crappiest resource site EVER !! I do not trust them for any review, article regardless if it shoots down or talks up the products of interest.

FOR ANYTHING.

Never have I seen a site so riddled with mistakes, false news and assinine assumption. FOR ANY GADGET ... I go anywhere but CNET. Especially that MOLLY chick .. she is about as informed as a mushroom in a dark room.

[Bloodmask]

"videogames sell consoles, not the other way around." Kind of like Halo 3 pushed over 520,000 Xbox 360s in September....and will probably push more for the Holiday months of Oct, Nov, and Dec. Not to mention Mass Effect, which I'm sure Microsoft will push the marketing for as well.

The guy predicts weak sales for 360 but just before that claims that "games" sell the console. LOL....This guy should go and take a look at the NPD numbers for September...and compare 360, Wii and PS3 sales.

What "well known" Ip's do all the people that live in la la land predict will push over 520,000 PS3s in NA?? Both Xbox 360 and Wii pushed about half a million consoles last month in NA alone. The PS3 was around a fourth of that. Sounds more like delusions than the facts if you ask me.

[Meus Renaissance]

Konami will drop the bomb; MGS4 to be released this Christmas. I'm only joking ofcourse but it'd pretty sensational if it came true :)

[ElementX]

You also have Gears of War, Halo 3, and Bioshock on the 360. Sure they're not the newest titles but they're AAA games that the 360 has which the others don't. If someone doesn't have 360, chances are they'll be asking for one of those games as well.

[jessupj]

Don't forget the PS3s line of games, I think they will sell well too.

[crazy25000]

i just feel sorry for my friends who bought the Wii....all they got is wii sports and metroid......after a while it gets boring as hell and just old......they got into the hype and now its just collecting dust

PS: those who always argue the virtual console, with Linux installed on the PS3 + emulators and roms= all that fun without the sh#@tiness

=)

[Rooftrellen]

I feel sorry for some of my friends who got the 360, too. All they got was Halo 3. I know someone who got a PS3 and only got the free movies that came with it and sold them in a garage sale.

Now, I know other people who got more, but who cares about that? As for me, my Wii collection stands at MP3, Super Paper Mario, Wii Sports, Bleach: Shattered Blade, Mario Party 8, Zelda, Mercury Meltdown Revolution, Monkey Ball, RE4, Trauma Center, and Wario Ware.

Perhaps your friends with a Wii should look a little more. Just as my friends are not all the average 360/PS3 buyers, your friends are not the normal Wii buyers.

I just listed 11 good games for the Wii out right now, and there are no less than 10 I'm looking forward to. If, over the course of a year, I can have or see comming 2 games per month I want, which is where the Wii is for me right now, I consider that great.

Not all Wii owners are casual gamers, about half are, probably, which is why the attach rate is between 4 and 5, the casual has 1 or 2 games, and the hardcore has 9, 10, or more games. I counter your casual friends, jsut as you likely counter my casual friends.

That doesn't mean you should feel sorry for your friends that got a Wii, it just means they aren't as into games as we are.

[Filanime03]

To tell you the truth my friends cousin wants to buy a Wii. I tried to tell my friend that to tell his cousin not to buy the Wii but she told me that his cousin is just a little kid and a ps3 would not be good for the kid. I kinda feel sorry for the kid is because there's not so much game for the Wii. I have a Wii I would have sold it already if it wasn't for Brawl. I admit I got in to the hype of the system and now I am tired of the motion control.

[Chris_GTR1]

look at the duchebag that wrote it. how does the 360 have mediocre exclusives??! all the AAA games that came out a few months ago are STILL AAA new games to NEW owners. stupid ass moron.

[teto83]

Once againg this not news,but I agree Microsoft jumped the gun realesing HALO 3 so early.

[jack who]

jumped the gun realesing HALO 3 so early.
\

wat you talkin bout.....360 has this holiday hands down...

Ace Combat 6 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare Assassin's Creed Army of Two Mass Effect Soldier of Fortune America's Army: True Soldiers Final Fantasy XI Online: Vana'Diel the list goes on..

[bootsielon]

From a demand stand point. But the Wii Weak on line-up? That's an overstatement.

[Mikey_Gee]

NEED A Wii
NEED A Wii
NEED A Wii

"YEAH .. GOT A Wii"

~~ 1 week later ~~

ummm

Now what??

===========
I do not have (nor do I want) a Wii, but my bud just sold his off to get cash for games on his other consoles (360 & PS3) since the NOVALTY of the Wii, as he would put it .... "DIED FAST"

[Meus Renaissance]

Imagine how many consoles it could have sold in time for Christmas? But I disagree with the man's conclusion. There are still alot of people who are waiting for Christmas to get Halo and thus an Xbox 360. I'm sure the Halo effect will last, although not at the scale as in September, but it will last into Christmas.

However, although he sounded harsh, Mass Effects is Microsoft's Ace this Christmas. But Sony arguably have two; Ratchet and Uncharted, which in my opinion will sell very well. But with Xbox owners famed software-attachment ratio, Mass Effect alone could compete with those two in sales figures.

[Kuest]

Meus. Nice post!

I agree w/ ya... somewhat (read #26)

[ThaGeNeCySt]

Uncharted can be THAT game this november... it needs to be... i expect nothing but raving reviews for this game and Sony needs to market that... Uncharted is my only must have PS3 title and if Sony doesn't push it, it can go the way of heavenly sword as far as sales go...

PLEASE SONY MARKET THIS GAME!

[jessupj]

your right actually, seems frikkin sony have been very lazy with the marketing. i live in australia and i can honestly say i haven't seen a single add on tv for the ps3. Half my family wouldn't know what a ps3 even was (stupid unedutaced poopy heads). i want their sales and install base to pick up so that better darn well start marketing!!!

[Mikey_Gee]

AND LOVING IT !!

BUT ..

Orange box put a scuff in the shine (Which BTW ORange BOX is KILLER) and with some other awsome games on the way ... well it just kind of muddied the water for Halo 3 (even as good as it is ... ONLINE that is)

;-)

[crazy25000]

lol dude i totally agree.......ppl need to be realistic instead of all the hype and media

[Mikey_Gee]

All it does is give FALSE expectations and makes an awsome thing look Not so awsome when compared to the hype. And in the end all it does it hurt a very good thing.

I remember Jurasic Park when it first came out ... the HYPE WAS HUGE and everyone ran out to see it. Then it started ... "Well the movie was not up to par with what the hype got my expectation to want" and the movie got a NOT SO NICE welcome. I watched it AFTER it was out of theatre and on DVD and did not keep up on the HYPE.

RESULT: I REALLY LIKED AND ENJOYED THE MOVIE !!

SAME APPLIES HERE !!!

ANd "GOD F'N FORBIT YOU GO AGAINST THE HYPE ... you will be shot on site.

That is why as the title of my post says ..

"I HATE HYPE"

[power of Green]

Nonsense. Halo 3 and Mass Effect will bring sales to the market not seen Period!. Sales won't slow down for weeks after Xmas and other games will be releasing while some people are doing late Xmas shopping. lol They got the most explosive contender in last lol. The bundles and games I very much doubt will leave the 360 in 3rd place. What if MSFT lowers the price just before Xmas?.

[Devr]

Yeah, that was a pretty dumb article. Ok, Ps3 does have more exclusives coming between now and December 31st, but it's not like the "Halo effect" has gone anywhere yet. Halo will still be a big mover of consoles this holiday.

[Mallow]

Need to look at this, lets say Q4 of 2007, lets see the games.

PS3 -
Eye of Judgment
Ratchet & Clank Future: Tools of Destruction
Time Crisis 4
Uncharted: Drake's Fortune
Haze
UT3 (maybe)
+ all the multiplatform games

360 -
Ace Combat 6: Fires of Liberation
Viva Pinata: Party Animals
Scene It?
Mass Effect
Halo 3 (Yes, I wasn't going to add this but it was only a week late from coming out in Q4 so it's added, we all know it will be under a lot of trees this year.)
+ all the multiplatform games

Wii
Zack & Wiki: Quest for Barbaros' Treasure
Battalion Wars 2
Manhunt 2
Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (The game looks bad but whatever)
Super Mario Galaxy
Resident Evil: The Umbrella Chronicles
Link's Crossbow Training
Rayman Raving Rabbids 2

If you take the PS3/360 games - Assassin's Creed, CoD4, Rock band, Army of Two, Orange Box (I'm only shooting off titles that look good/great)

Then all 3 look strong, each have good games to offer and I feel sorry for people that own all three consoles, like me. If you were to ask me which I liked better then it would be PS3/360 because I like games like that and I'm not a huge fan of the wiimote.

[_insane_cobra]

Mostly agreed. I would just like to add some often overlooked 2007 Xbox 360 releases to your list:

Naruto: Rise of a Ninja
Virtua Fighter 5 with online play
F.E.A.R. Files
America's Army: True Soldiers
Dance Dance Revolution Universe 2
Chessmaster: Grandmaster Edition

[TheDynamo]

A guy in the comment section of the website that this article came from had a pretty interesting take on things. I was so impressed, I dragged it over to N4G for you all to check out. Gotta give him credit. It's one of the most comprehensive explanations I've heard yet. We should recruit him to come to this site. Read below:

I came across this interesting rumor on Gamespot today hinting at the possible future for the Xbox 360...

http://www.gamespot.com/new...

And it brings many questions to the table: Can we really call this new box an Xbox 360? If it truly includes all that is being speculated, wouldn't it really be an Xbox 480 or something? Is Microsoft turning the game console landscape into a PC-like world of incremental improvement where buying a console today makes it obsolete a year from now? Did Sony get it right from the beginning?

No one can deny that Sony is behind the 8 ball this time around, and while many people blame it on price, software, or Blu-ray, the real underlying reason may simply be that Microsoft changed the game on them. Sony was enjoying the success of the PS2 and was in no hurry to get the PS3 out the door. Plus, I think it's been evident from the beginning that Sony wants to expand the lifecycle of consoles. Afterall, each new console initially means heavy losses on hardware until manufacturing costs can be chopped down to consumer friendly levels. And they routinely speak of the 10 year lifecycle they expect of the PS3. Looking back the PS1 to PS2 was a 5 year timeframe. PS2 to PS3 was a 6 year timeframe, and I have no doubt that if Microsoft hadn't made the 360 4 years after the the original Xbox (the shortest turnaround in console history), they would have postponed it another 6 months or more. Sony just wasn't and isn't ready to compete in the key areas of price and software, and not just game software but the PS3 interface itself needs some work, especially music management and the internet browser.

This coming from someone who has a PS3. I got one of the first ones but failed to turn a profit on eBay due to the short term of high demand for the PS3, so I kept it. If I hadn't kept it, I'd have an Xbox 360 right now because it is currently the best console on the market. (Wii doesn't count. Great fun, but it'll die unless people find new types of games that actually benefit from the unique control set because most don't.) Instead, I have a great Blu-ray player that looks pretty and is fun to play the occasional demo on.

That being said, I think things will be far different in '09. Why? Because Microsoft built a console for '07 and Sony built a console for 2010. As the PS3 comes into its own from a development perspective, the 360 will have been wrung dry and be on the verge of replacement (Think about it. Chances are they won't repeat the 4 year lifecycle, so let's say they go 5. That means the 360 is only 6 months removed from it's half-life. And assuming at least 6 years for the PS3 lifecycle, the PS3 is 6 months removed from being halfway to its half-life. Can't we give the machine time to progress?). Games will most likely be too big for DVDs. Developers will have found the limits of the 360 architecture. The 12th sku will be released to include something they didn't think was necessary. Meanwhile, my PS3 from 2006 will still be purring quietly, playing all the new games. Developers will find they can do more for similar cost on the PS3, while reaching a similar install base. Xbox 720 or something will be announced for next holiday season, and while it is more powerful than the PS3, it contains essentially the same features at substantial price premium. The PS3 will continue to sell as the PS2 does today.

I'm not saying Sony is perfect. They certainly screwed the PS3's early lifespan through misplaced priorities. (And may have put themselves in a deep hole by lacking an install base for developers to profit from.) They failed to get developers ready for their machine and are experiencing non-stop delays as a result. They missed their audience with so many things, and they continue to do that, which is scary. But the one thing you can't deny Sony is that they know how to create a next-gen console. They did that this time. Now they have to wait for the world to catch up.

PS: I think your article accurately predicts the holiday season for each console, but you may be off on a couple of things. Mass Effect may push the 360 more than you think. And you should at least mention Ratchet & Clank, Uncharted: Drakes Fortune, and Haze as above average PS3 exclusives this holiday season. In fact, the more I read about Haze, the more I think it's got potential to be the killer FPS to challenge Bioshock and Halo 3 for 360.

[Mikey_Gee]

NICE FIND !!

[drtysouf21]

!

[Gina-get-u]

The post assumes that PS3 technology will remain current in the next 3 years, and that the current console cycle will follow the same trend set by previous generations. I think this is wrong, because the pace of technological improvement is accelerating, which means gadgets tend to get old much faster nowadays and product cycles get shorter. Also, the post assumes that the successor to the 360 will not be much of a technological leap over the PS3. Based on recent experience, that's also a loser bet. There's stuff coming out today that we hadn't even heard of 3 years ago (blu-ray, anyone?). That's why it's never smart to buy any electronics before you actually need to, or to hang on to it after its time has passed.

[beavis4play]

1. ratchet and uncharted as "above average"? apparently you haven't seen these games.
2.you say you're a ps3 owner, but the only reason you have it is you couldn't sell it for a huge profit during launch.- you didn't buy it because you wanted the system so your opinion lacks substance.
3. no games? you aren't looking. for the first year you get resistance, motorstorm, ninja gaiden sigma, heavenly sword, ratchet,uncharted, haze. i won't start on muti-plat like GRAW, AC, COD4, oblivion, etc....
4 you say sony has misplaced priorities and continues to miss it's audience with so many things. i'll agree with price- but they aren't continuing to do so. the price is coming down. and look at all the great games coming in '08.

some of what you wrote about console longevity i agree with. but with what i touched on above most just is misinformed.

i think you should have bought a 360 to begin with because you seem to prefer it. your problem was you got greedy and bought a system for the wrong reasons(profit) and now you sound bitter. too bad, because i find the ps3 to be great for games as well as upscaled dvds and hi-def movies.

[Hagaf22]

the truth of the matter is.... ps3's holiday lineup is amazing, i personally will be spending a ton on games for the system, which just had a price cut, what says buy me more than hot titles and a good price? wii, come on, when will they put out some GOOD games??? my wii is a conversation piece thats it. and 360? the weakest holiday potential, and mediocre? more like poor! halo 3 is out. mass effect is the only game...

[nasim]

GT5 PROLOGUE
UNCHARTED
RATCHET and CLANK
HAZE

x360 has just MASS EFFECT

Wii has SMASB BOWL + a very strong lineup

however because of the price drop i expect ps3 to win XMAS followed by Wii and then x360

[Evil0Angel]

i bought PS3 and i swear to GOD i regret it

HS=nice for 30 min than it get borrrrrrrrrrrring.
MS= best off road racingt game made ever but i cannot play it with my frinds split screen
RESISTANCE= is this the game that in par with GEARS .it suckssssssssssss
ratch+clark= come on !!!
uncharted = not my type
UT3 the best thing PS3 has to offer but it pushed to 2008

[CrazzyMan]

just wait and you will see who is strong. =))

[PS360PCROCKS]

Sorry but Bioshock, Forza Motorsport 2 PGR 3/4, Gears of war, Halo 3, Mass Effect, COD 2/3/4, Ace Combat 6, rock band, guitar hero 3, dead rising, lost planet, Madden 08, Assassin's Creed... are the reason xbox 360 has a good Holiday Lineup, yes some are old and some are new, but it's the fact the 360 is so much older now that it has so many great titles you can pick up for $20-$60. The xbox has more games, at this point more highly rated games, and is the cheaper console, it's still of mass appeal. I know alot of the games I listed are Multi-platform but that's the point, the 360 has good games AND all the mass appeal multi-platform titles, it's a bonus for people buying a console. UT is very hardcore gamer, Uncharted is new and has no following and we dont know how good it is yet, Ratchet is one of my favorites, but most others dont know what it is. Haze is just a bunch of big mouths who are ranting, whether they come through is yet to be seen. I guess my point is the PS3 is still running on fumes and promises while the 360 has delivered many AAA games that are worth buying even a year old. I want them both to succeed, because I play both and I want something to play on PS3 that blew me away like Gears Of War and Bioshock did, that brings the laughs and fun that Halo 3 has, or the realistic and completely unrealistic racing of PGR4 and Forza 2.

[Jen5en]

Oh my... a thread about which console will SELL THE MOST, and it hasn't turned into a World Flame War. I'm impressed guys, I enjoy seeing everyone contributing with facts and oppinions. Now where's MART and Nasim when you need them? :D

[Gina-get-u]

Here is a major problem with this guy's analysis:

His article tries to compare how attractive a 360, PS3 or wii would appear, based on its upcoming game line-up, to people who don't yet own one. But he focuses only on games that are coming out and ignores games that are already out. This is the opposite of smart. To anybody that had never owned a console before, every game on it will be new, whether it came out last month or last year, because (duh) he hasn't played any of them yet. For example, if somebody walked into a Gamestop today to decide if he should buy a 360, why would he only look at the list of upcoming releases like Mass Effect or COD4, and totally ignore the copies of Halo 3, Bioshock, Oblivion and Gears of War that are already sitting on the display case, and probably playing on the demo kiosk? New buyers comparing consoles will look at the display racks to see which has the most games. To long time gamers like us, Halo 3 may be old news now, but to millions of new console buyers this shopping season, it's still pretty hot. The author failed to see things from the viewpoint of the newbies. That's how you can tell that the author is not very bright and is not the deepest thinker around.

One other thing. There is a reason Bioshock and Halo 3 were released well ahead of the holiday rush. Bioshock was a new IP that needed the spotlight by itself, while Halo 3 was expected to cannibalize sales of other 360 titles. As a result of their early release, Bioshock was all everybody could talk about for weeks and sold well on the positive buzz, while Halo 3's cannibilizing effect was minimized. On top of that, Halo 3 will help the releases that follow it by increasing the number of 360 owners. When COD4, Assassin's Creed, etc. roll out, a lot of those new 360 owners will have played enough Halo 3 and will be looking for more games to buy. That's why an overly crowded holiday release schedule is more a sign of poor planning and lack of organization than a sign of the console's strength.

[Kuest]

just happens to be the smartest post. Bubbles for you, man.

[jcgamer]

you, my friend, deserve a bubble...great, great, great post...and I agree, Halo 3 releasing in September was a very smart move by MS...

"That's why an overly crowded holiday release schedule is more of a sign of poor planning and lack of organization than a sign of the console's strength." Gina-get-u

wow..."here yee,here yee" the quote of the day...bubbles up

[PS360PCROCKS]

Good post yours was pretty in line with my post above. Main fact is the 360 has old games that are still new to people who haven't played them and they have many many more as well.

[Kuest]

mention it before! Damn! Sorry, man- I must have missed it... Bubbles for you, anyways.

Got to give props to the originator.

[Silver360]

Makes you wonder how things are going in October. Traditionally September is a slow month for video games.

[blynx182]

don't be surprised if gamespot is saying the same thing. they are owned by cnet.

[Sez]

i like the wii to.but to think the wii will have a strong lineup of games to come. he clearly doesn't know what he's talking about.360 has the best lineup so far for the holiday season and going into 08 with ps3 bring up the second best lineup of games and wii pulling last.

[DJ]

How he sees Wii as being strong from a software perspective is beyond me.

[ElementX]

Bottom line is both consoles will do good this holiday season. I plan on buying numerous games for both consoles and hope I have enough left over to buy my family decent presents :)

[Kuest]

yet so beautiful. What a beautiful day it is.

[jcgamer]

"I plan on buying numerous games...I hope I have enough left over to buy my family decent presents." -ElementX

lol...same here...I was thinking about buying the Christmas tree this year, putting a bow at the top, sticking a card on one of the branches and let the tree be their present...haha...with all my games underneath...lol...and with that good post, I see you're out of bubbles...well, sir, we need to get you some more...

[Kuest]

so many good posts, today. First, Gina- then Element- NOW jcgamer!

ARRGHHH! Bubbles flow from my sockets (lol- what did I just say?).

[jcgamer]

sup bro...didn't recognize that was you...you changed your avatar...the Trumpster...lol...now, let's get you that ninth bubble...

[trane07]

Don resinger is the same guy who said that the ps3 will become the saturn and that halo3 will trump ps3 and there is nothing sony can do. And now it looks as if he's trying to cover himself with some

"ps3=moderate to strong"

crap. Even in the article he says that the 360 will takeover the ps3. this whole blog is FOS.

[Kazzik]

While i respect everyone's opinion i happen to disagree with some of you. I just can not see how you could give the PS3 a stronger outlook this holiday than the 360. What some people forget is that titles this holiday are not just titles released in Nov and Dec they are titles released from Aug on. People buying a new console for kids and or others do not have that console therefore ll games are viable choice's for that platform and when you compar price point and software available even with Sony's price drop xbox 360 trumps it large. Yes i know that PS3 is a better deal than the 360 but i am sorry with still only 20% of the population owning a HDTV it is not a big deal yet this holiday next holiday it will be bigger and by 2009 it will be huge but not this year folk's. Let us us also not forget the rumors flying around that M$ will be dropping its price again too that would be another blow.

For this holiday you have to go with 360 for the strongest outlook next year however is a whole other story and i really see Sony hitting its stride in 2008 and getting this back to an even playingfield. Just my opinion =)

[Kazzik]

Sorry i just read Gina-get -you's post and taht is what i wanted to say only much betetr so just read that post and ignore mine hehe =P

[Kuest]

you made good points.

Have a few!

[Relientk77]

"I see it as PS3 strong, PC strong, 360 moderate, and Wii as weak."
^i agree basically with what u said except let me go more in depth

i agree PS3 is strong it literally has like 8-10 exclusives since Sept coming out or came out (and the price drop WILL help alot too.. parents will be more likely to buy it for their children now cuz the cheaper price)

PC has Hellgate: London, Crysis and more etc thats strong

for XBOX 360 i would say that their game lineup as a whole is strong .. but as in what games r coming out this holiday season i will say moderate becuz its biggest hit is Mass Effect coming out and we all know that (halo 3 sales will benefit the 360 tho.. cuz it will continue to sell)

for Wii its hard to say
I myself will agree with u and say the upcoming Wii lineup is weak
coming out is Mario Galaxy and Mario + Sonic Olympics .. and those could be the best 2 selling games on the Wii this season (that and Metriod even tho that came out alrdy) but like thats all they have as HUGE exclusives go? ... but the fact that the demand for the Wii is high and its a "popular fad" factor will help it in sales anyway and it will prolly do very well

thanx for reading if u did sry if i bored ya

peace

[cherdman]

So the 360 is going to have the toughest time this holiday season? I had to laugh...

[FelicityOldGamer]

Weak library for the Wii!!???

Manhunt 2, Battalion Wars 2, Fire Emblem, Naruto, Resident Evil, Nights...

Come on... For A LOT OF PEOPLE these are GREAT games!

[bababrooks]

ha ha ha , still chocking on my beer , this is the point ...............fanboys are fanboys , most of this site are fanboys , ms is doing a hell of a good job against a gaint sony in gaming .could it be the 360 games are actually good? if you guys gamed you may get my point!

edit:my spelling is duff .lol
edit:: thanks for disagreeing my spelling aint duff!

[ReBurn]

I'm ok no matter which way it goes.

[Obsidianphantom]

After this Holiday war season is over, some people are going to need to shut up permanently!

[bababrooks]

i hope then all gamers will be happy , play games and shut the fek up about my house is bigger than yours.

[fredy]

if video games are suppose to spur sales of a console why no mention of the xbox 360's large library? More selection there and AAA games that came before halo 3.

gamers are not just looking for games that come out on x-mas day ya know, especially when you will have some strong bargin bin titles so they can afford more then 1 game.

nobody goes out there looking for just the latest game. about what games will sell the most or is most popular that is all subjective we will find out, but the 360 has a better holiday lineup plus more selection for noobs.

[feejo]

So if it is game that sale console, why old Xbox sold only 25 millions and had Halo 1 + halo 2 (game that same the most).
So following that it mean Wii sport is a wounderfull game cause it make sell Wii console.

[demolitionX]

PS3 rulz the universe!
http://www.psu.com/The-PS3-...

[otherZinc]

Im tired of people like this clown saying things, they dont come true and he/she keeps their job, BS!

When January comes, lets revisit this thread so someone can tell this clown: the 360 sold the most software, the Wii sold the least software, and the PS3 got killed coming in a distant 3rd in console sales for the 4th quarter.

4th Q sales: SOFTWARE
1.HALO 3
2.MASS EFFECT
3.COD 3 360
4.MARIO GALAXY

4th Q sales: CONSOLES
1.Wii
1.360-----this is going to be to close to call.
.
.
.
.
3.PS3-distant 3rd

[WilliamRLBaker]

360 will sell more games this holiday season and probly more consoles too.

[stonedog]

The premise of the article is that it is "games that sell consoles not the other way round". The article then goes on to contradict its own logic by presenting a rosy Xmas for the PS3 b/c of the lowered price despite indicating that the games line up is not so good.

[Vizion26]

Video games sells consoles? The Wii seems to be defying that idea. The Wii doesn't have many very good games aside from Zelda, Metroid, and Resident Evil, and yet it is still outselling its competitors. Just imagine how high demand for the Wii will be when sure-to-be hits like Zack and Wiki, RE: UC, Raving Rabbids 2, Mario Galaxy, Smash Bros, and Wii Fit come out? And when demand drops (whenever that happens) Nintendo can easily drop the price to $180 - $200 without taking a loss (unlike Microsoft and Sony which take a loss for every console sold) to bring back demand. Let's not forget that according to news reports more third parties are working on Wii games and exclusives than any other consoles which is sure to keep the Wii freight train moving.

A lot of hardcore gamers love to bash the Wii calling it a fad and act like fortune tellers and say it is going to die by March 2008 or some specified date. But the mass market has spoken, they love the Wii. All indicating factors shows that is going to be #1 this generation as it already has a larger install base worldwide than its competitors. You can accept it or not. It's your choice.

[AngryTypingGuy]

Yeah, I'm sure that a parent who knows nothing about video games and only cares about saving money will jump right from the Wii to the PS3. What about the 360 Arcade Edition? Hello?!?

This guy is definitely a moron, because "Xbox 360" and "mediocre" don't go in the same sentence. Which system has been pumping out games rated 9.0 or greater by multiple outlets on a consistent basis? Nuff said.

[BubblesDAVERAGE]

its not a playstaion and playstion will remain king and you guys will see why..you stupoid xboxts

[XxZxX]

i think in America where people eat and sleep with masterchief. One game will make US XBOX holiday game library the strongest. HALO 3, that's it, it will make mario galaxy look like kameo galaxy and in US, anything from PS3 this year will be just mediocre. American just dont like PS3 games for now totally overshadowed by HALO 3. However anything outside US, Wii will be first followed by PS3...then lastly XBOX 360. Due to the strong US economy, it will put XBOX 360 and PS3 in stalemate when combining worldwide sales number. XBOX 360 will still win the software sales 2007. Anybody wanna bet?