"Traditional Console Cycles Are Over," According to NPD Analyst

In recent years, we've seen all of the big three console makers, specifically Microsoft and Sony, iterating on their consoles more and more. We like to Mat Piscatella, NPD Group Analyst, states that traditional console cycles are dead and over with. Will we be seeing fewer numbered consoles after the PS5?

[coffeemaster]

I think this is what we’re coming to

[crazyCoconuts]

I personally don't think so. Every console iteration results in increased cost for platform holders and game developers and makes the landscape more complicated for console gamers that for the most part want things simple. So Sony/MS really want to stretch out the cycles as long as possible until customers or competition drives them to upgrade. The rest of the userbase isn't as hyper sensitive to resolution and such as we are, and don't necessarily want new consoles every year to make their existing ones antiquated. While I think the mid-cycle updates are here to stay (every 3-4 years), I don't think we'll see a radical departure from the 7 year cycle on major releases quite yet.

[Sophisticated_Chap]

I disagree. With consoles now having backward compatibility, allowing gamers to be able to play the content that they purchased on their previous console (ps4 - ps4 pro as an example), it takes all complications out of the equation. The main reason for someone to upgrade their console going forward, is to increase the graphics capability that the consumer wishes to play their games at.

Since new consoles are all essentially operating on typical pc architecture, the cost to developers is minimal, but at the same time it increases sales opportunities when marketing to have gamers playing their games at higher resolutions/fps, just like we've seen with the 4k push by Sony and Microsoft. I will be upgrading to a newer console soon, just for that very reason, and I will lose nothing by doing so.

[crazyCoconuts]

@sophisticated - two counter points to your argument: first, the increase in sales opportunity isn't really there for the game developers. You're going to buy one copy of their game, so same revenue whether you upgrade to the latest console or not. Second, while the architecture is similar to PC, testing and tuning still has to happen for each platform. It may not sound like a bug deal, but for smaller companies I can see it becoming a problem if you have 2-3 companies releasing a new console every year. The expectation for consoles is much higher than PCs in that it has to perform well for all configurations. And at some point you have to stop supporting a console because it doesn't have enough memory/CPU/whatever to run your game. Sure you can have every game labeled to say "runs on PS9 and above" but consoles are successful partly because they're idiot proof. Notice how different the packaging is for a PS3 game vs. a PS4 game. Lots of care has been taken so that even grandmas can get the right games for the right consoles...

[conanlifts]

@sophisticated_chap @With consoles now having backward compatibility, allowing gamers to be able to play the content that they purchased on their previous console (ps4 - ps4 pro as an example), it takes all complications out of the equation. "

The one thing you are overlooking is that backwards compatibility does not equate to forwards compatibility. There is no guarantee that any ps5 games will work on the ps4, just like the OG xbox One might not be capable of running Xbox 2 games (unless it is cloud based). So with this in mind it makes sense for console generations to continue, they might just be in a different form with mid gen upgrades and varying performance consoles. But at some point the older hardware will cease to work with the games.

[rainslacker]

I think one generation with a mid-gen is not really enough to call a trend.

[UltraNova]

Think about it though, mid-gen releases are godsend to console manufacturers simply because they wont bother to put everything in their next console in order for it to last 5-7 years while selling at loss for the first couple years.

Mid gen consoles are here to stay, wether we like it or not.

[rainslacker]

Whether they stay or not depends on how much money it costs to R&D it, maintain and support a separate SKU, marketing a new SKU, and how much it actually sells to the market. If all the work involved in releasing a mid-gen only captures a small part of the market, then I can see them not really bothering.

Not saying that we won't see new mid-gens next gen, just that one time doesn't denote an actual trend.

To me, if the console makers want to do this, they should at least be up front about it, so people can make an informed decision on if they want to jump in right away. Personally, waiting a few years when the generation actually gets going in full force to pick up a more powerful console seems like it might be worthwhile if I can be content with what I have for the current gen.

If they aren't up front, then people are going to start getting annoyed that there are shorter cycles, and it taking a while for those mid-gens to show their worth, coupled with the possibility of the launch stuff being neglected.

[TheCommentator]

You're right. Sony is still going to cheap out and do mid-gen consoles with PS5 because they're lazy and don't actually care about the consumer. Need proof of how lazy they are? Look at how mush trouble they're having with the name change beta...

MS has already stated though, with the launch of the 1X, that their business model was iterative from now on. They even said they were doing away with generational consoles which is why the 1X's architecture, in what some people still choose to call a mid-gen console, is not two gpu's duct taped together with a bit more ram and a checkerboard accelerator.

[mkis007]

Commentaters

A midgen console by any other name...

They are the exact same thing and you will have to spend money on upgrades either way if you want more power. Microsoft loves a bit of word play, and they have you wrapped around their finger.

[Hardiman]

@Commentator so in your world a company that supports their console and by support I mean allow devs to create amazing games for said console throughout its entire lifetime is lazy?!?! The same company that works harder, takes more chances than anyone else and releases more software than anyone else is lazy! The same company that didn't have a dead weight gimmick strapped to it that cost customers a hundred bucks more than the competition! The same company that had enough foresight to enable HDR with an update as opposed to making customers buy a new machine. The same company that had even more foresight for VR because they had been working on it since the 90's and in turn released the most profitable and affordable VR for the masses is lazy! The same company who released the first mid gen console at an affordable price that their R&D department developed a method of creating an image that the naked eye has a hard time discerning the difference between it and native 4K is lazy!

From where I'm standing Sony is anything but "lazy" because they lead the charge and because of their hard work they are heading towards 90 million PS4's out in the wild!

[TheCommentator]

You guys tan talk up Sony however you like, but they're still way behind MS when it comes to the infrastructure built around their hardware and services... and that includes the differentiation between PS4's haphazard mid-gen console and one with an entirely new architecture that iterated the Xbox brand... and simple services like changing your name on PS4 possibly deleting your Trophies, progress, and even paid content.

Scarlett will continue to iterate the Xbox brand, not replace it like Sony likely will with the PS5.

[rainslacker]

@TheCommentator

Or you could look at it in this light. MS came to this gen with a woefully poorly designed and under-powered console, and got it right with the X1X. IF they had taken the same care with the OGX1, instead of relying on the Kinect as a major selling point, and basically making the same console they did last gen with an x86 processor instead, then they probably would have been more competitive out of the gate, and not had to rely on an upgrade which cost the same as their launch console.

See, I can twist things around to to not make things all rosy.

To make it rosy for Sony though, to prove how easy it is,

Sony's mid-gen was basically just a 2nd GPU, a slight increase in CPU power, and a bit of extra RAM. They didn't have to reinvent the wheel, and basically completely redo their entire system's bus architecture, because what they had was pretty good from the start.

Maybe MS wanted something like the X1X from the start, but didn't want Sony to have a head start, so just made an X86 based 360. Who knows.

More seriously though. If MS had to completely redesign their console, that isn't being ahead in infrastructure on the hardware. That's just making a better machine, and based on my original comment, the power and capabilities of that machine in no way indicate a trend that they will continue, or in your references, that no one else can surpass.

[hench07]

The worst thing about this is you now don't know if you are buying the best version of a game.

Since a new console could come out and the same game becomes better or the developer releases a remastered version.

You may as well never buy a game at release because they will be a better version in a few years.

[darthv72]

Well that's been going on since the 80's. There will always be remastered games but this gen it is a case of a better system playing the same game but in better performance. It isnt like there is an xbo version of RDR2 and an X version. They are one and the same but the only difference is on the base model it just installs those assets.

Like how a PC and a game being able to detect the specs and install it accordingly. I have been saying there should be no reason for a multiplat game to not be a single disc that spans the various platforms. Meaning you buy RDR2 and its one disc but you can play it on the ps4 or pro or xbo or x and when you put it into each system, it installs the appropriate files for that system. no needing to buy a copy for ps or a copy for xb. you buy one and it works for all. Just like a PC game working for users with AMD/ATI rigs and those with Intel/Nvidia or Intel/ATI or AMD/Nvidia. The game detects the specs and sets itself up accordingly.

The only games that would be specific are those released by the platform holder themselves. Everything else, if it is a 3rd party game, would be universal. Wishful thinking though. I do like how some 360 games are enhanced for the X though. Its the same game you play on the 360 or you could play it with some improvements on the xbo but if you play it on the X you get even better improvements.

[SamPao]

If the whole industry was owned by one company sure... I hope I will never see that day :P

[Stanjara]

You really don't unđersand how gaming industry works, but will learn.

[Angelin]

So, a master key... not sure why you got downvoted forr the idea. Maybe tou’re too early :D

[Atom666]

Yeah, why the downvotes? It would be nice to only buy one copy of a multiplat. Not sure of the tech requirements, but I'd like to see it.

I can't be the only one with multiple copies of GTA sitting on the shelf.

[ILostMyMind]

Your PC game's discs run on Windows, Linux and OSX?

[CarlDechance]

lol......I certainly am not going to be avoid buying a game in fear of a superior version coming out "in a few years". I doubt that is a concern for the vast majority of gamers.

[Silly gameAr]

I agree. These dudes live in lala land. some might do that, but most won't wait that long to play a new game, especially a good game.

[SamPao]

I got a pc that is super High spec because of work. I could play every game on the highest resolution with all effects enabled. Still, I play on PS4. Why? Because I just like to play there. Is it the best version? I dont care

[crazyCoconuts]

I'm starting to get there. Between controller support inconsistencies, f#&$&$ MS patches that install while I'm trying to play, and other nits like not all games going through Steam, I'm not always in the mood for the hassle. I go back and forth...

[mcstorm]

Ultr I'm with you on that. Have a high end laptop that plays all games in HD and alot in 4k but I don't game on it I use it for video editing and work and own a xbox x and switch. I would own a ps4 but struggle to game as it is now with a 1 year old but I chose consoles as I perfer gaming on my TV and just to pickup a controller and play.

Each to there own though all consoles have great games just depends on what games you like to what consoles to own.

As for generations microsoft have said they are not doing them as such any more as every Console going forward will play old games and older consoles will play new Console games (I see the Xbox one s being supported 2 years after the Xbox Y comes out anyway) if they do then makes things intresting esp to see if Sony and Nintendo do the same. For Nintendo I don't see them going back into the pure home console market.

[Vizigoth04]

That's the worst way to build up a backlog. That's like saying never drive to work just incase a newer model or your preferred car comes out in a couple years.

[Imalwaysright]

If that's a problem do yourself a favor and don't buy consoles. Just build a PC.

[conanlifts]

You may as well never buy anything, because there is always a better version, or a sale, or it is discounted. That's life.

[AizenSosuke]

Console wars never end even if you want to because simply "one person claims a piece of plastic(s) or data(s) will be better than another" We humans/ soul reapers will always find competition in the most pointless things.

[crazyCoconuts]

Pointless things like kicking a ball into a net or hitting balls back and forth until someone makes a mistake? I kinda enjoy this competition... It's more interesting than watching a football game to me but to each their own.

[Rude-ro]

But at this point, there is no war.
Pretty much it is now Microsoft’s media partners write their negative attacks, Sony fans defend, and the exact same shills poke at the embers to keep a fire going.
Microsoft has enough years in their belt to solidify who they are..
And Sony proved who they are.
Nit picking back and forth is one thing, but the majority of consumers have made their choice per the history of their chosen product.
Sony will come out with their better hardware, and Microsoft will make sure they have hardware to match.
Microsoft’s entire purpose is to make sure that Sony does not work with or try to rewrite how computing/hardware/software works per the direction Sony was taking in their history of products. They are inventors and they lead the direction on a lot of digital products.
They are protecting their money maker.
Period.
They do not know how to make things, they are just making things to keep hardware developers stuck within their os perimeters so that they call the shots and control mass consumer products so that other companies can not challenge their software. They do this with massive marketing departments and media partners.

The war was spoon fed and created per marketing control.

If you ever want, study marketing and business or read the ten day mba.
It will guide you with what Microsoft does because they literally exist because of it,

[PhoenixUp]

Not this dribble again

[yellowgerbil]

Back in like 2000 or so I happened to see the future, if only briefly. I clearly glimpsed a PS9 I only saw it for 30 seconds so didn't get much info, but never fear there will be at least a ps6 7 8 and 9

[CarlDechance]

Consoles are following more standardized tech and not the more exotic designs of past generations. Even with the custom jobs done with AMD, consoles are still based off of PC tech and so a hardware refresh every 3 years or so actually makes sense. The hard lines that distinguish console generations are going to be quite a bit more blurry moving forward.

[AnubisG]

Sure. And nexr gen will be digital only huh? In fact, there won't even be hardware just a sergice through the cloud huh?

Idiots!

[Inzo]

Didnt someone write this article back in 2010?

[ajax17]

Yeah, every generation there's some guy looking for attention. Spewing this same nonsense

[Retroman]

Everything repeat itself.
U are correct.

[DreadGara]

Yeah it became anniversary since then

[yomfweeee]

Not so sure this is true. I don't think the sales of the Pro and X sold that well. They may think it isn't worth the effort.

Nintendo didn't do the same as Sony/Microsoft. They had to put out a new device because the WiiU was a colossal failure.

[william_cade]

and single player games are dying....we get it execs want a streaming services or sell us a console with the power locked behind paywalls. Every update will cost, like content that is already on the disk (in games), but we have to pay to unlock it. Or we have to manually updated it like a PC? There goes the relatively cheap price of consoles.

[frostypants]

No.

[zsquaresoff]

Its soo over that Playstation 4 is still selfing like crazy.

[ajax17]

Sony has just reached 86.1 million PS4's shipped worldwide... Yeeah, this guy has it all figured out.

[Cobra951]

The Nintendo Switch notwithstanding, console tech has just about merged with PC tech. The biggest technical difference is that PC improvements come piecemeal, on no particular schedule, while console improvements come less frequently, and all at once. The PC approach means everything stays compatible going forward, which is a benefit to everyone. Newer systems are better versions of older systems, with perhaps a few new bells and whistles.

Now add diminishing returns to that. Hardware is having a tough time getting significantly faster. And what we already have solves all the problems of playing games on screens: high-res full-color, fluid frame rate, detailed 3D worlds and characters, full-fidelity audio--music, SFX and voice. With great effort, they can make it a little sharper, a little smoother, a little faster-loading. But the days of huge leaps forward in what we get to see and do on a screen are behind us.

[Sharingan_no_Kakashi]

Hey guys did you hear that??? TrAdiTionAl ConsOLe cYCLes aRe OvEr!!!!

[Father__Merrin]

not the case. the ps5 will usher in the next generation of consoles and by that usher in the next generation of games. only consoles usher in new wave of classic titles not pc

[1nsomniac]

I won’t be getting a PS5 Pro this time around, that’s for sure!

[sampsonon]

and then the ps5 is released. followed by 6,7, and 8.
this argument is made almost every generation.

[smashman98]

Ps4 pro and xbox one x came out a while ago thats when they ended

[-volt-]

I don't see the big deal really. It happens with phones and PC gaming all the time...

[Retroman]

Glad I still have ps1,ps2,ps3 along with PS4....... can't wait to add ps5 to my console collection.

[Harkins1721]

Doubtful. Bring on PS5

[Hardiman]

Yeah sure guess you missed Sony is about to break their record with sales. Also I seem to recall there were quite a few consoles are dying articles circa 2012 and yet here we are! In fact in 2013 the PS4 hit and it's been on a roll since!

I know there are lots of very powerful people in this industry that want it to be all digital, games behind paywalls, all streaming, always online etc etc but that's a narrative that's hard to swallow when companies like Sony continually show SP games that aren't loaded with MT's and loot boxes are profitable. It'd be different if say M$ was heading towards 90 million but they aren't!

The evidence shows that consoles are extremely profitable and the main ingredient in that success is killer software! Sure we may see more Pros and X's in future generations but it's still gonna be a piece of plastic that plays games for quite some time.

[OpenGL]

I disagree, the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X were anomalies created due to the sudden adoption of 4K TVs. It's highly unlikely Sony or MS will feel a need to push 8K mid-way through the next-gen due to diminishing returns so the PS5 and Xbox Two will probably go the whole generation without a true upgraded model.

[hanko14]

its funny, they were talking about for this generation

[Elda]

Pretty much been that fact for over a decade now.

[FanboysKiller]

As a consumer I vote for my wallet ,digital purchases are future proof with Xbox , Sony should follow suit to avoid users split with next Gen.

[Larrysweet]

Ps5 xbox 2 will be last consoles made period streaming on all devices after

[Shikoku]

Nope