PS4 Might Reach 100 Million In 2019, PS5 And Next Xbox Tentatively Coming In 2021 – IDC Analyst

"While many of us have talked about the success of the PS4, the...presence of the Xbox One and the surprising reception to the Nintendo Switch over the past year, we're also looking to the future. The PlayStation 4 Pro and Xbox One X represent stop-gaps, premium options for 4K owners and slight upgrades in terms of processing power. But what about the next generation of consoles?"

[slavish0]

That is a realistic next gen date

[lxeasy]

2021 seems accurate

[mikeslemonade]

PS5 should be 2018 and if it were up to me it should be 2017. Hardware is basically maxed out by year 4.

[Cyborgg]

I say early 2020 for the PS5 and probably announced at E3 2019

[MrVux000]

@mikeslemonade

"Hardware is basically maxed out by year 4"

First party games and some multliplat games that are coming in the next 2 years, would beg to differ.

[Tsar4ever01]

Complete BS. People keep thinking that the last console 7-8 yr cycle is the new normal, well it isn't! It's just the 'Exception than the Rule' due to the near financial crash caused by wall street. Console general cycles is 5 to 6yrs. Ps4 launched in holiday 2013 and it's mid-tier upgrade in late 2016 was made possible because of the hardware switch to PC-like x86 architecture. Launching the Ps5 in 2021 would make this generation cycle 8yrs. That Butt-head analyst is still thinking like console cycles will stretch as long as last gen and he will proven wrong.

I still believe PlayStation Ry(Zen) 5 will launch no later than holiday 2020, Sony might surprise us with a late 2019 launch depending on which of the *foundries (GLOBALFOUNDRIES and TSMC) will manufacturer the APU/CPU cores for AMD and which foundries Sony will choose for the AMD processors for Ps5.

read here, translator needed, https://pc.watch.impress.co...

[UltraNova]

I have a feeling the ps5 will be out Nov 2019 with the announcement at 2018' E3 or PSX. It will be fully forward/backwards compatible with the ps4 so switching will be a breeze (just like from ps4 to Pro). That way the market will continue uninterrupted. As for the OG ps4 I''m sure it will be supported until the ps5 Pro comes out.

[mikeslemonade]

^Nope. PS4’s best looking game is Horizon and came out year 4. Nothing else will look better.

[Aceman18]

The 100 mil mark is pretty much a given at this point. When they finally do start next gen the cpu's need to be more powerful.

[darthv72]

I would think 2020 for a PS5. It will be revealed in 2019 with a release in 2020 as you figure they have been working on it since the Pro released in 2016. That would be 7 years after the initial PS4 and right in line with Sony's usual time frame of 5-7 years between releases. MS would then ride out the xbo wave until 2021 which coincides with their 8 year span from 360 to xbo and then xbo to xb?

And if both opt to go with mid gen upgrades again, then it would be at about the 3-4 year mark after initial release.

[Cyborgg]

I agree. I wonder if Microsoft will have a triple AAA title by then that's better than Halo and Gears? Maybe a new Fable

[IGiveHugs2NakedWomen]

PS5 reveal in 2020, release in 2021. I have no idea what Microsoft intends to do in regards to releasing a new console especially when you consider that the Xbox One X is backwards compatible with standard Xbox One and Xbox 360. Remember the "backward and forward compatibility" idea?

[CornholioX]

PS5 release date late 2019 or late 2020. That's my guess.

[dumahim]

It is realistic, but I think I'd prefer 2020.

[Relientk77]

Works for me, I want plenty of time to enjoy PS4 titles and the system still has years left. Don't want them rushing PS5 out the door

[Professor_K]

2021

My prediction came through.

[tontontam0]

""Hardware is basically maxed out by year 4"

First party games and some multliplat games that are coming in the next 2 years, would beg to differ."

Console devs are holding back they can max it out day one if they want.

[MrVux000]

@tontontam0

"Console devs are holding back they can max it out day one if they want."

You can't be serious.

[gangsta_red]

It'll be interesting to see what these next gen consoles will have and do. Especially since they will essentially be stronger than their mid gen counterparts. They will have to be step up from them...right?

[OB1Biker]

I just hope its more about using their full potential with optimised games (and I dont mean just graphics/framerates)
I'm also assuming they ll be ready for the evolution of VR

[gangsta_red]

As much as power has been the emphasis this gen I would like to see these developers do better with schedules and release dates.

Almost every game this gen was delayed, pushed back and in mostly MS's case, cancelled.

These developers need to develop these games with better efficiency, being able to release the games on time and with as minimum issues as possible.

[Ju]

While everybody is complaining about release dates, we had a flood of games in 2017. Maybe it's not enough for die hard fans, but for me it's overkill. We are having too many releases a year. It almost killed the industry in 85. You don't want to drown the market in games yet again. We are getting a bit to that level, actually.

I have 3 TB of games and need to delete them because my disks are filling up again...

[Highlife]

I want to see more fleshed out worlds more on screen enemies better ai i don't need 4k iwould much rather have frame rates

[2pacalypsenow]

@JU

"It almost killed the industry in 85. "

No, what almost killed the industry was shovelware being put out by almost every company. There are a lot of games releasing, but majority of them a quality games.

[TheColbertinator]

@gangsta

I am doubtful that we shall see less delays as the years pass by. Bigger games,bigger budgets,bigger teams and huge marketing drives will push development schedules to crazy levels.

Could be the reason why Activision has over 4 teams working on Call of Duty annually.

[FinalFantasyFanatic]

I feel like this gen has been pretty reasonable, but then again, I've had so many games to play this gen, a delay here and there hasn't bothered me as much.

[OB1Biker]

I can understand some people focus on schedules but tbh that's not my concern. I just feel happy to be informed and have some knowledge in what's planned for my future gaming and at the same time very well aware not everything will go as planned. For that reason I'm not really interested in release dates. Best to release when ready than rush for holiday release for instance.

[Ju]

...and looking at HZD you can release a game any time if its a great game.

[blackblades]

They'll have improved graphics quality and let you play games just like the past systems. The real question is what games we'll see and what nintendo will do. Except the games we already know that coming to it.

[notachance]

calling it now, the next PS and XB will retain the architectures while upgrading the components.
From now on every gen will be compatible with previous gens kinda like how smartphones are, there'll be minimum requirements for console games e.g. PS5 or later and XB2 or later.

[Skuletor]

Not a chance ;)

[mkis007]

I think you may be right...we seem to have hit a point where we are just going up in overall quality of what is on screen rather than what can be done on screen. ps2 wouldn't have been able to run any version of the Rage engine, but I think the days of something not being scaleable are behind us.

[Ju]

Absolutely. That doesn't mean a new gen can't push those games further than current gen, while the games will be forward and backwards compatible.

[FATHASUN]

That has been "called" years ago.

[Aenea]

Well, we might finally then get 4k at 60fps without compromises on both! With plenty of CPU and GPU cycles to spare for advanced AI and better lighting and shadows and, and, and!

Also hoping they can do 4k@90fps or even 2 x 4k@90fps for nice VR headsets!

[Ju]

yes, I agree. Not sure about the 4K@90fps. But I believe we'll get a next iteration of VR. (PS)VR is gen one. There is probably more potential in PSVR 2 than yet another console. But it won't happen unless we have a new base platform it can run on; so it will require a new generation console as well.

[The Wood]

Yep. . I'm not even sure why people are disagreeing with that statement. .

[SCW1982]

2020 at the latest.

[narsaku]

It's possible we might see a late 2020 release, but I'd still wager for 2021.

But you sound like you expect it 2018/2019????

That's just adorable. Adorably wrong.

~~~Now introducing the PS5!!! 25% stronger than the X!!!!~~~

Much rejoicing will not be had.

[FinalFantasyFanatic]

With PS4 killing it this gen, especially with both software and hardware sales, I can see Sony hanging onto this gen or even dragging it out as long as possible. Not that that bothers me since I've been happy with how many games they've given me to choose from.

[SCW1982]

All Sony Generations have been 6 years except the PS3 and that was because of the horrible economy. PS4 will be no different. Whats adorable is you naivety.

[Ju]

I rather expect it twice as fast as the X. Designated memory bandwidth of current chips will go beyond 1 TB/sec - so I expect the new machine targeting that; realisticly something in the range of 700-1000GB/s - depending on memory prices, it's pretty much irrelevant how much will go in those machines (if financially feasible 16GB? GDDR will possibly phase out in the embedded performance world; The amount can't be less than 12 however - or use better better compression). What's more important, though, is, we need a low power CPU core which is at least twice as fast as current Jaguar cores and can handle that throughput; stepping down from 8 cores seems strange, but faster hperthreaded 4 cores might actually be the way to go. If you look at AMDs roadmap, those chips will hit samples in early 2018. And with them not making a lot of noise about those (they are treaded very much as industry secrets), it looks like they go with a new product pretty soon. Anyone sees the similarity with the original spring PS4 announcement back in the day? Came out of nowhere. And release just 8 months later. 2018 is actually quite realistic, IMO.

And well, yeah, with latest virtualization technology, this can simply "emulate" a virtual PS4 in probably twice the speed. So, I full expect this machine to run PS4 (Pro) games.

[corroios]

2021? It will be sooner for the ps5

[Eidolon]

PS4 Pro was not supposed to slow down their plans for PS5, it was just a refresher for the PS4. They probably could have designed it differently with the same budget and made it more powerful, not PS5 powerful, but more powerful than the current Pro.. but it wouldn't be what it is supposed to be.
3 years after the Pro, and 2 Years after the Xbox One X, PS5 could still be very powerful in 2019, which is within their consistent 6 year Gen-update cycle.

[corroios]

of course it can, a late 2019 launch for the PS5 with some kind of Rysen CPU and Vega GPU APU at 399 with 10 to 12 teraflops will be possible and will be again a huge jump from the PRO. The PS4 was launched at 2013 and 2019 is a normal date.

[Ju]

^^ you say 2019 but mention chips of a 2018 roadmap. So, why 2019?

[Professor_K]

12 teraflops seems very umderwhelming for a next gen console.

Hope the next xbox goes after 24 teraflops with 32gb RAM. By late 2021
The price of RAM and CPUs should be wattered down

Not to mention Microsoft could make a manufacturer contract deal and get it cheap AND STILL watter down the cost by selling it at a loss of 100$ perconsole and make up for the losses in software/misc
And BAM enough to fit into 700$ hardware or less.

I wanna play next gen demnding games at a Static 60fps at ATLEAST 1080P dont care much about 4k, major waste of power Tbh imo.

[RauLeCreuset]

I'll ask what I did in another thread. Why would Sony release PS5 anytime soon? It's doubtful MS will risk alienating its base by releasing yet another console, in the next couple of years. Nintendo is loving the Switch, and Sony has to be loving that the PS4 has a near insurmountable lead on the Switch. So with neither competitor looking to upgrade, why would Sony want to push reset on the install base they have with the PS4?

[Omnislashver36]

Same reason they always update.

[The 10th Rider]

Well, for one thing the first couple years of this gen was filled with cross-gen titles. Next generation will be far more similar to this generation than this generation was to last generation, meaning backwards compatibility will be much easier to implement and it would be easier for developers to make cross-gen titles.

Now consider this:
If a console releases every seven years at $400 then you'd buy 5 consoles over 35 years . . . $2000
If a console releases every five years at $400 you'd buy 7 consoles over 35 years . . . $2800.

$800 might seem like a lot of money, but over 35 years that's only $22.86 a year—almost a third of the cost of a single brand new game or what you pay yearly for online. That's a minuscule price to have your games running on more recent hardware.

Also consider that in today's world people are far more receptive to frequently upgrading technology. Most consumers don't go 7 years without upgrading their phone, PC, tablet, TV, or most other electronic devices. Those that do likely aren't buying game consoles.

*If* home consoles are going to remain the way they are, it makes no sense to continue with longer console generations. Controllers should be easily backwards compatible. Consoles should be able to be easily backwards compatible. Titles can always release cross-gen for the first year or two of a new console. If consoles remain in their current form then R&D costs will be far less.

A better question to what you asked would be why would *any* of the big three want or need to draw out a console generation?

(Now I'm not saying that I necessarily think that Sony or Microsoft will go with a five year console generation this time around, I'm just making the case that a shorter console generation makes far more sense in today's day and age.)

[corroios]

because gens are over and after 6 year on the market it more then normal to have the PS5. more this doesnt mean the end of the PS4, it will be even cheaper.

and sony will also want to push 4k tv, because by 2019 the growth of 4k will be huge and nothing like today.

[FinalFantasyFanatic]

I cannot fathom why anyone thinks that Sony would cut their profits and drop the PS4 for the PS5 just to start all over again.

[343_Guilty_Spark]

How would Microsoft alienate its base when the next Xbox will play XBOX, 360, and One and X enhanced games?

There will be tiers for every price point low to high

[RauLeCreuset]

"OmnislashVer36"

There are a number of factors that go into when to launch. There has been no singular reason across gens. For example, this gen it was important for Sony not to be beaten to the punch.

The 10th Rider

"... backwards compatibility will be much easier to implement and it would be easier for developers to make cross-gen titles."

You yourself acknowledged that there were plenty of cross-gen titles this gen. I'm not seeing how that would be an incentive to launching.

"That's a minuscule price to have your games running on more recent hardware."

You're speaking on consumer incentive, but we're talking about Sony's incentive. Plus, that kind of "for the cost of a cup a coffee a day" math, while true, doesn't really work that way in real world application. Many people don't just have the money lying around. They have to come up with it. Asking them to come up with over $400 (your scenario left out tax and other associated costs like games, accessories, and storage) every five years is going to be a significant ask compared to asking them to do it every seven or more. That and the narrower windows between console releases (new or iterative) might just convince them to hold off until the next inevitable release.

"Most consumers don't go 7 years without upgrading their phone, PC, tablet, TV, or most other electronic devices. Those that do likely aren't buying game consoles."

I wish the comparisons between dedicated gaming devices and smart phones would end. Let's just not do it. I feel like you're making some assumptions there too. I'm not so sure how true that is of TVs and PCs. You're also comparing products that risk falling behind their competitors if they don't launch in the time frames that they do to the unique situation of the PS4, where its only real competition (Xbox and Switch) are unlikely to launch the next gen anytime soon.

(Continued)

[RauLeCreuset]

"If consoles remain in their current form then R&D costs will be far less."

I would think that's true enough. Do you know what else is true? The costs of manufacturing a PS4 will be far less. By waiting, they can reap the benefits of selling the PS4 at an increased profit, and if what you say is true, they still save on R&D when ready to roll out the PS5.

"A better question to what you asked would be why would *any* of the big three want or need to draw out a console generation?"

Sony:

They're dominating market share, and sales of the PS4 aren't slowing down. We're not even sure they've peaked. They're still setting sales records. They sold through 70 million PS4s that are going to contribute to software sales and other revenue. That's here and now, not a hypothetical. While unlikely, who knows what can happen with a new gen. Look how many were lost from PS2 to PS3.

They have the leverage over the competition. MS and Nintendo would damage their brands by launching new systems within the next couple of years. MS is already taking hits for focusing on the X over games. I don't even know why Nintendo would want to put out a new system. Sony can continue to develop the PS5 and refine it right up until about the time MS is ready to release the new Xbox.

VR tech will be further along and cheaper.

Xbox

Do I really need to go into it? Release another system so soon after the X and risk becoming the Dreamcast.

Ninty

Again, they have to be happy with Switch sales, and power isn't their thing, so I can't fathom why they would want to launch within the next 2-3 years.

corroios

But if they go too soon ahead of MS, they allow them to have a significantly more powerful machine. They can wait to launch around the same time (within about a year) and take the wind out of their sails (and their sales). That allows Xbox to stay alive by marketing itself as the power console, when they could just destroy them outright by launching with similar or better specs.

FinalFantasyFanatic

Agreed. Time will tell.

[BlackTar187]

final fantasy

How long was the ps2 gen before ps3? I mean your question is easily answered. Why would sony drop PS2 support which had more users at this point or close to for ps3? I DUNNO DUHHHH

[Ju]

"cut their profits and drop the PS4" ... but to keep the PS4 competitive, it needs to drop its price frequently towards the end of its lifetime. This cut significantly into its margin. It already reached $199 for the holidays. How big is the margin at that price, you think? The Pro was an experiment. But it doesn't reach the numbers it should to actually let it's price drop - the resistance to drop it to $349 this holidays says it all. I would love to see a smaller Pro for $199 when a PS5 drops, but the truth is, that won't happen. Not with the current chip and manufacturing tech. Thats exactly why a new next gen platform makes sense. New advanced tech to scale down cost by increased performance which sometimes is required to get to that next gen $400 bracket. Also, Sony is making money right now. This is the right time to invest into R&D not when profits and cashflow drop.

[The 10th Rider]

@RauLeCreuset,

Cross-gen is an incentive to launching earlier because it means that developers don't have to abandon the install base of the previous generation. I imagine cross-gen titles at the start of each gen is going to be the norm from here on out, barring any drastic changes in consoles.

As for the cost, sure, maybe some people wouldn't be able to afford that right away, but because of cross-gen games the first console could still last them 7 years if need be before upgrading. By then the second console would be seeing a discount anyways.

As for other electronics, why not make the comparison? The point isn't that consoles should be upgrading every year or anything like that, simply that consumers have become substantially more welcoming of the idea that electronics should be frequently upgraded. The mentality used to be that you buy something to last you for as long as possible, but recently things have shifted towards the idea that things are made to be replaced shortly down the line. You'd have a hard time selling the average consumer a new console every 5 years a decade ago, nowadays that's not such a difficult sell.

As for each console maker, your points with Nintendo don't make any sense as I was just advocating that console generations should be 5 years rather than 7+. Of course Nintendo would be idiotic to launch a new console in 2-3 years, but a 5-year console lifespan is typical for Nintendo and that would means we'd see the launch of a new one in four and a half years.

[RauLeCreuset]

The 10th Rider

I still don't get how it would be that much more of an incentive now than it has ever been. By your own admission, there were plenty of cross-gen titles at the start of this gen. Same last gen. While that can help the transition to a new gen, I'm not seeing that as a significant incentive for Sony to launch in the next couple of years, allowing MS to stay in the game by coming along a couple of years after that with another console they can market as "the best place to play." Sony holds all the cards. I don't see them feeling rushed.

You responded to my point about many people not having the money upfront to drop on a console and associated costs every five years by arguing that it's a good value proposition. You don't have to sell me on that. I bought the 60 GB fat PS3. That doesn't change that many people didn't have it then and don't have it now. But again, that all has to do with the consumer's incentive. We're talking Sony's incentive.

Why not compare it to other electronics? Because you're comparing apples and oranges, on the basis that they're both fruits. I already provided you one reason you shouldn't compare. You're also making some broad generalizations about how often people upgrade electronics in general, based off of how often cell phones are upgraded.

As for Nintendo, they have upgraded when there has been a need to upgrade. The Wii sold outstanding, but they needed something with more power to get more third party support. If Nintendo is able to sell units and software, they don't need to upgrade. They clearly don't care about power until it becomes absolutely necessary to upgrade to receive continued third party support. They don't just upgrade because it's that time, and I doubt they would do it if in the same position as Sony.

Again though, we'll find out one way or another. I just think a lot of this talk about what Sony is going to do is more the wishful thinking of what some of the more hardcore fans want them to do.

[narsaku]

2019, 10-12 tflops for 399?

..Man you need to do research before you say things.

The PS5 will require 4k HDD space, with larger, more expensive drives. It will require more ram, likely 16GB, on top of that another modern budget cpu/gpu combo.

..Not gonna happen m8. For that price, in 2019 you'd be lucky to see a 12 gb ram Xbox X match and 8tflop gpu. And that's just matching a last generation refresh, much less a shiny new generation.

[The 10th Rider]

I think the best thing Sony or Microsoft could do next gen is, right out the gate, release a 4K console and a base console.

Trying to substantially beat the X's power while still allowing for native 4K and getting to an affordable price point is going to take a while. However, if there was a $400 model that was just made for 1080p gaming and a $600 model that was made for 4K gaming then it would allow for console that absolutely blows the X out of the water and give us a significant generational boost over these mid-gen upgrades.

[corroios]

Are you kidding me. Right now the vega GPU are already more powerfull then 10 to 12 teraflops and in two years this GPU will be already much more cheap and Sony will have a huge contract that allow dirty cheap. The same with the CPU.

Lol, 12 gb or ram and 8 teraflop in late 2019... it will have at least double of the PS4, in other words 16 gb of ram.

Of course that in PC world late with Navi and Ampere next year will be fair away and by 2019.... what 30 teraflops on a single GPU?

[showtimefolks]

Ps5 minimum

10 plus TF or at least 10

At minimum 16GB ram possibly more

A much faster CPU

I actually see an announcement early 2019 around GDC Than release around fall 2019

Also I see ps4 crossing 100 million mark in 2018 or early 2019

To be honest I wouldn't mind a 2020 release. Reveal the console at GDC Than show at E3 with release date of holiday 2020

[Ju]

Of course it's gonna happen.

It's so funny when the people who actually demand more for less get stuck in the generation they know and grew into.

Been there through a couple of iterations already and every time you'd think this is it, we move one another notch. Well, 10TF and a 1GB/s is the goal. It's a crazy goal if you look at it from the back, but not if you want to stay at the cutting edge.

I could not have expected a $400 machine with 8 cores and 8GB in 2013. After the previous gen had 512MB and cost even more. But it happened. It's all about economies of scale. How much you can integrate and how small you can physically built this thing. $400 is indeed feasible to target.

I am curious what this will do to PC gaming, though...10TF/1GB/s will be significantly more expensive in a PC by that time.

This will be earlier than people think. This is the huge advantage with the Pro having released last year. Enough buffer to release another console. With the X out, it will come earlier. Perfect time to but a nail in the coffin of XBox. If they release in 2019 (or even later) this will allow MS to drop the X to $399 and make it competitive. A new machine @ $400 which doubles the X in 2018 is game over for MS. ... and would even allow Sony to consider a $500 price tag. Sony won't do it, though. They need numbers, and $500 ain't it. The X did not make a dent in the overall market this holidays. despite being the superior product and some "hype". And the main reason is price - while have competition much cheaper. Same will hold true for a PS5.

[KickSpinFilter]

2020 the soonest, anything before that would just be to disruptive to the PS4 freight train.
Whooo Whooo!

[BlackTar187]

what about ps2-ps3?

[chrisx]

time shall tell

[ApocalypseShadow]

I really like playstation. But I'm looking more forward to the evolution of vr. More power would allow more detail, more animation, better weather effects and destructible backgrounds.

But if PS5 can provide that, then I'm all for waiting for it and enjoy psvr today until then.

[Outside_ofthe_Box]

Will be interesting to see if next gen PSVR comes with the PS5.

[blackblades]

I wanna see vr armor. Put the armor on which are pads connected to vr. When you go through heat or cold you'll feel it. I know ya don't wanna feel pain so instead of shocks it'll have vibration when getting shot or whatever.

[crazychris4124]

100 million?? Sony be like...

https://media.giphy.com/med...

[Outside_ofthe_Box]

100 milli should happen. I agree with the 2021 release date as well.

[TheColbertinator]

Why not 150 million?

[ILostMyMind]

For the same reason that XB might not reach 50 million by then. It would be unrealistic.

[TheColbertinator]

By then the Xbox One X will be 150 billion

[XiNatsuDragnel]

Yeah I know that's realistic , but at PS track record I say 2019.

[FallenAngel1984]

Sony announced PS4 had sold 70.6 million units after its fourth year while PS2 had sold 71.3 million units in the same timeframe.

PS2 reached 100 million units sold within 5 years and 9 months. I’d imagine PS4 would reach it sometime a little later after that.

[Vizigoth04]

Unless we can get a Final Fantasy 7 Remake and The Last of Us 2 to come out before that. Gangbusters.

[FallenAngel1984]

I doubt that’ll change much. Remember that PS4 started selling a lot faster than PS2, yet even with the current library available it’s fallen slightly behind.

PS4 will sell well, but it won’t overtake PS2

[KwietStorm_BLM]

Ugh that's just as long as last generation

[michellelynn0976]

It will end up with 115 million sales the ps4 will. It has been a massive hit. If the numbers hold up.

[Aenea]

2021 seems a tad late to me for Sony, who knows tho they might release another upgraded console in 2019 and release a full backwards compatible PS5 in 2022

[soulrebel]

I hope we don't have to wait that long. The cpu's this gen are badly dated now. To drive gaming forward we need consoles with Ryzen cpu's. That will provide different and more complex worlds to explore, and maybe, finally we'll see the step up in AI we've been needing for a long time.

[The 10th Rider]

Yeah, I hate how so many people seem to be against the idea of releasing new consoles sooner so that games can make use of the extra console resources and we can have games that aren't being held back by consoles that are built on 10 year old hardware.

As I said elsewhere:

If a console releases every seven years at $400 then you'd buy 5 consoles over 35 years . . . $2000
If a console releases every five years at $400 you'd buy 7 consoles over 35 years . . . $2800.

$800 might seem like a lot of money, but over 35 years that's only $22.86 a year—almost a third of the cost of a single brand new game or what you pay yearly for online.

That's a minuscule price to have games running on more recent hardware.

I don't really get why people want to circlejerk about how long their favorite company can go without upgrading their hardware.

[xX-oldboy-Xx]

I've still got a few more PS4's to buy, GOW PS4pro, TLOU PS4pro maybe even a Spiderman if they do it.

Standard, MGS4, Destiny, PS4pro and waiting on delivery of the Monster Hunter PS4pro.

[The_Jackel]

What would be good is if not only is ps5 backward compatibility (more so for the ps4) but also if you put the ps4 game in the ps5 and devs have done a patch to bump the game up more (like from ps4 to pro or xbone to x patches). Say the new gow/spiderman/tlou2 will prob be 3k checker but on the ps5 its 4k or more (depending on what the future holds with resolution with consoles and tvs ect) even take something like naughty dogs the last of us they did a remaster on ps4, just imagine if the ps5 is 8k compatible and they bump that up to 8k hdr+ from what it is now on the pro. (As an example) that would be good to see that way you can retire your ps4/pro and just use your ps5

[The 10th Rider]

Backwards compatibility should be far more likely next-gen because this generation's hardware will be far easier to emulate then last gen's was.

Also, I wonder if they could make it so that it runs the PS4 Pro/Xbox One X versions of games, so that games with performance patches automatically saw performance boosts over the base PS4/Xbox One when being played with backwards compatibility.

[The_Jackel]

@10th
i think it would be safe to say it would be via an update on the ps5 as the asssets wouldnt be on the disc for 4k ect. BC for ps4 on the 5 is a must this time around

[The-rain-maker]

I mean like a themed PS pro GOW

[The-rain-maker]

Wait have they announced a GOW PS pro ???!!!

[xX-oldboy-Xx]

nah mate - but it's almost a given, all trailers and advertising for their big titles are captured on the pro.

[yeahokwhatever]

I'm not sure I care until there's a new boxing game.

[bluefox755]

It will head 100 million for sure, though I doubt Sony will wait til 2021 for PS5. Probably holiday 2019, or 2020 at the latest. I mean, next gen games are currently being developed already. That being said, I certainly wouldn't mind if they waited til 2021, with the amount of great games they keep pumping out, I'm in no hurry.

[Slappy McGee]

The last die shrink by AMD (7nm) was this fall followed by the next around 2020. Late 2020 early 2021 would give enough time for the 2017 chips to be cheap enough for something mass produced like the PS5/Next Xbox.

https://wccftech.com/amd-co...

[LoveSpuds]

Spot on squire, I think in order to give a noticeable leap over Xb1X we will need to see a generational jump in chip architecture. Ultimately, it will be a case of waiting for the right chip to hit the right price before we see the next gen consoles.

I am personally in no huge rush, the games I have been playing on the Pro and Switch have been incredible and the upcoming year looks even better again. I like pretty games as much as the next guy but I honestly feel like games generally look amazing these days and the Switch has driven home the point that game design and art style are more important to me than resolutions and technical prowess.

[tigertron]

2021 is far too late, that would mean the PS4/XB1 would be 8 years old, not even the PS3 was that old when the PS4 came out.

2020 seems like the best date to me.

[Matrix6]

I just bought a PS4 pro, I hope that helps towards the 100 million strong 💪

[RichDD]

I don't think the PS5 will be as powerful as you'd expect. Looking forward we can expect massive investment by ISP's in fibre optic and 5G broadband technologies.

Graphine research should have advanced quite a bit by 2021, and who can guess what kind of technology will come of it.

The Apple A11 supposedly performs better than the snapdragon 845 because it is bigger, but this comes at a cost (which they can recoup the cost of under the iPhone brand). It's not easy improving CPU/GPU speeds anymore because it's very difficult to build affordable 10nm chips (or below).

I feel environmental awareness is growing too and the abundance of resources is shrinking which is also a factor to consider.

I would expect future consoles to be more like an always online 5G streaming device connected to cloud supercomputers for processing (probably heavily optimised by AI).

Samsung are investing $26 billion in its South Korean memory chip manufacturing business. Broadcom are trying to do a hostile takeover of Qualcomm. Exciting times ahead.

[FilthyWeeb]

I would argue about late 2019-2020 would be the release of the PS5. The PS2 was around for about 6 years before the PS3 was released, and the PS3 was around for 7 years before the PS4 was released.

The PS4 has been around for over 4 years already, if it enjoys a similar lifespan as previous generations then late 2019-2020 isn't unreasonable.

Though sadly the battle for power will come at a cost, no doubt both Sony and Microsoft won't release a system less powerful than the Xbox One X (unless they go down the hybrid route). Therefore we can unfortunately look to expect expensive consoles next generation.

[Tazzy]

With all the hype that was around the Xbox One X and people saying its in demand we might not see another Xbox console I don't see Microsoft going out and investing money into a console if its struggling to sell as it is. I'm a fan of the big 3 but have no interest in the Xbox One X what so ever i'm not saying I won't have an interest down the road but as of now no. I waited until e3 this year to see what Xbox One X was launching with and nothing caught my attention games I already beat to play them again in 4k isn't a big deal to me I want new games I don't want Forza on the same game engine with tweaks since the Xbox 360. Get a new engine and show me that the Xbox One X can run games great without running games on outdated engines don't try to compare it to a high end PC because a high end PC can run games 4k 60fps or higher not be locked at 30fps and do checkerboarding. Right now I'm happy with my PS4PRO and the games I got for it honestly both Microsoft and Sony should have launched their consoles to do 4k when they launched in 2013 not screw people over and say hey this is an upgraded console. It does 4k and some games do checkerboarding I think Microsoft will go third party and put their games on Playstation and Nintendo consoles in the future if the Xbox One X don't take off I believe thats what they're going to do.

[loadstone007]

2021?! That's far too long to wait for the next generation! mid-2019 please!

[BIGBOSS08]

Reveal in 2019 and release in 2020.

[Dlaw76]

100 million ps4s 85 million switches 40 XboxOnes

[Eonjay]

100 million by 2019 is a given.

[Father__Merrin]

The tech in next gen will be such that pc gamers would probably jump ship

[FinalFantasyFanatic]

Unlikely, console gamers are price sensitive than pc gamers. We have seen this with the ps3 and the xbox one.

[cellfluid]

Ps5 will. Be out late 2018 mid 2019. Side by side launches are a thing of the past. We are in the Era of where one console will dramatically outshine the other. No more parity on release or specs!!!

[JMyers]

I think the PS5 will be released no later than 2020. It will surpass 100 million easily. I think in 2018 the price will reach $199 standard, and $299 for the Pro.

[Vizigoth04]

I'm glad the PS4 is doing so well this generation. PlayStation has delivered on it's promise of it's games. I'm perfectly content waiting for whenever PS5 comes together. I'm sure Sony is thinking about Gamers, Developers, VR, the Switch and Power all at the same time. All in a discussion board. I don't expect anything new before 2019. And when it does come out I think Sony will be very minor of it's install base. Is see in 2019 to 2021 PS4/Pro/PS5 existing in the same ecosystem for a few years.
PS5:
1) Automatically upscales last gens games via disc insert. Essentially backwards compatibility.
2) Dualshock 5 is essentially Sony's own version of the Switch.
- On the go 720p to 2K screen.
- Cartridge instead of discs? Like Vita or switch.
- Detachable handles serves as Move 2.0 controllers.
3) Game cartridge inserted into PS5 is 4K or more possible.
- Dualshock 5 now serves as controller, second screen, texting/messaging/internet browsing device.
But then again if PS5 goes to cartridge based then will later be a disc drive? If there is a disc drive is there going to be a bells and whistles console that plays all 4k Blu Ray, and DVD and CD format's, as well as all previous PlayStation generation games? Will there be a cheaper model with no disc drive at all it backwards compatibility. $399 to $599 respectively priced consoles. This would be huge, expensive but possible.

VR 2.0 would essentially be a reduced clutter headset and maybe updated camera or new capture technology. Move 2.0 controllers would have already been bought with a Dual Shock 5. It's important though to have a standard controller too I think.

[Ashunderfire86]

I thought the same thing for next gen 2021 is more accurate. I remember before this generation started back in 2013, many developers like Crytek wanted more RAM for console, and back in 2013 they got their wish with 8 gb of it. Now the wish list for next gen is better CPU to always target 60fps. We need Terflops like a Titan graphic card for consoles! There we will have no compromises to the resolutions and framerate around that time. Of course PC will remain supreme with 8K gaming on the horizon. No way is next gen going stay the same as this gen that have a limited Jaguar CPU. Agree or disagree I am thinking realistically on this. Moore Law won’t allow next gen consoles to remain the same.

[FernDiggidy]

2021 is more realistic. 2019?? NO WAY. PS4 pro has so much life left.

[DialgaMarine]

PS4 will “Probably” reach 100 million. No, it will. A console that is still tracking above the highest selling console of all time will not have trouble meeting that goal.

2021 is a pretty comfortable year for next gen consoles. Got a plenty of potential games to keep this gen strong.

[PS3_Noob]

My guess is 2020. Next year PS4Pro slim will be released so may be 2yrs is enough for it. Most important for PS5 is BC of PS4 games at 4K. By that time I will probably upgrade to 4K as well. So that one console plays all the last gen games as well. Even if that means 2021 or 600$ so be it. No BC then do not release the console.

The thing I hate about PS4 is no BC but I guess PS3 architecture was too complex and not worth for them to have special chip to run PS3 games.

[Gman32]

im good with a 2021 for next generation consoles besides its not we need them thanks to ps4 pro and xbox one x

[LP-Eleven]

PS4 will easily reach 100 million by 2019. It should do about 20 million next year, and with it hitting 70.6m by the beginning of December this year, it had a whole month to do about 2-3m more (and that's being conservative). By Jan 1, 2018, it should sit around 73m, making 100 million in 2019 a relatively easy feat.

[InTheZoneAC]

next xbox just came out, 4 year life cycle is a bit weak...

[windblowsagain]

Won't be another xbox after the x

[Jules__Badguy]

2021 For sure.

[Felsager]

Sounds about right for a next iteration of consoles.

[Skankinruby]

If next gen doesn't start til 2021 ps4 could definitely be challenging ps2 numbers

[Altovoltage]

I would say 2020

[Xenophon_York]

PlayStation 5 will release six to nine months before a neXTBox—most likely. And that's only if Microsoft reverses course (on yet another 'firm' business choice) and retracts the 'end of XBOX generations' claims.

PS5 end of 2019 or holiday 2020 at the latest.
XBOX One 2³ end of 2021.

[jc12]

nope...2019-2020 for PS5 anyway.

Microsoft could be longer because of the X, but it was their decision to basically launch a brand new console in the middle of a current cycle because their original console is complete underpowered garbage.

[_FantasmA_]

I think 2020 sounds better and seems more appropriate. But then again, I know Sony will still be pumping out high quality exclusives in that last year just like 2013 for the PS3 was amazing.

[ajax17]

Seems like a realistic estimate.

Hopefully with the next generation the console manufacturers and developers will target 60 fps for ALL games instead of stupid resolution.

[Max-Zorin]

I hope they do reach 100 million. It might encourage Microsoft to fire the entire Xbox management and replace them, with people that know what the hell gamers want.

[Einhander1971]

Let's keep maxing out the tech we have, loving Switch, Ps4, Psvr. It's about great game design not all about tech, Mario odyssey is incredible, the uneducated moan the switch is underpowered. Nintendo just design fantastic games with gameplay, same for Sony let's enjoy the tech we have I'm in no rush.

[Hugodastrevas]

The Pro and the X just launched (and the PS4 won November NPD against the X, the Switch and the cheaper Xbone S), the Switch's success proves people don't care about power, there's no reason to kickstart a new gen for the next 3-4 years. Sony don't screw the pooch on this one, it could potentially beat the PS2 record.

[SuperSonic91]

110 million by 2019

[Firebird360]

I remember saying 2021 awhile back and people saying I was an idiot.

[ibrake4naps]

Wow, that's a long hardware generation

[Elda]

The PS4 is doing extremely well & I'm quite sure just like last gen we won't see a new console until a least 7 or 8 years into the current gen knowing certain internal parts will be cheaper by then.

[Donjune]

Who's sitting on the cash to really take a leap forward next generation? Sony is making tons and tons of dough this gen. Hopefully the share holders will let them build a true monster! Microsoft I'm sure will have a monster as well, but somehow their messaging will get them in trouble as usual lol.