In Theory: Does PS4 offer VR its best chance at success?

Digital Foundry
Sony has mainstream penetration and the cheapest hardware - but can it deliver the quality?

To answer this, we look back on four PlayStation VR demos sampled at last year's Paris Games Week. The first big attraction there was DriveClub VR, a game that stuck to 30fps for its regular console release, but targets 60fps via reprojection to achieve a fluid racing experience with a VR headset, interpolated up to 120Hz via asynchronous timewarp - effectively a frame-rate upscaler that warps the image based on the very latest motion data received from the headset. The actual experience of playing this unique build was a mixed one. On the one hand, it's the closest we'll ever get to driving a £200,000+ sports car at over 130mph while leaning out of a window for a quick peek around. (Perhaps for the best.)

[ninsigma]

No. Each device offers something and we need them all for VR to succeed. Psvr is probably going to be the one I go for. It looks awesome! What the psvr is key for in making vr big is getting it into the hands of more casual players that wouldn't have anything close to a rig that could run vive or occulus. It'll get more people into vr as a whole while the other 2 cater to the enthusiast crowd. From their preorders so far, you can see vive and occulus are going to do really well at the high end market and that's really important too. We have ourselves a great scenario where we have multiple devices for the same tech area that covers multiple market positions. It's perfect for getting vr off the ground.

[ArchangelMike]

I agree, we need VR to capture mindshare, and have deep marker penetration. The only real way that is going to happen is if all the VR providers are firing on all cylinders. Vive and Occulus need to succeed in their respective spaces, PSVR and GearVR also need to succeed in their respective spaces. It's the only way that VR will be seen as a viable platform, and the only way for mass market appeal and adoption.

[ninsigma]

Exactly. If we only had one option or if only one of the options was the real deal then market adoption wouldn't be that great. Having the likes of Google cardboard, gear vr and now LGs new offering, is great to give a fairly cheap entry point to vr for even more market penetration. Not sure when I'll get a device but I'll definitely support it when I can and I'm happy to see that even with the high cost for vive and occulus, they are still being supported by tonnes of gamers. Great to see this having a real chance of kicking off.

[amiga-man]

I have no doubt VR will succeed and be around and grow for many many years, how much of the market PSVR and Sony can claim is the real question.

[kneon]

But realistically, PSVR and Gear VR are the only ones that have a chance of selling in big numbers in the next year or so.

According to NVidia's own estimates there are only 13 million PCs in the world powerful enough for VR. sure there will be people upgrading for VR but that means the barrier to entry is even higher than just the expensive VR gear.

I expect a year from now no more than about 5 million consumers running PC based VR. It will take several years more to really make significant progress in that market.

[ABizzel1]

Yes and no.

Overall we need each VR experience to be successful to aid the entire industry. The problem is that each of these VR headsets is currently designed for a single platform PC, PS4, Smartphone. There has to be someone who unifies a single VR solution to function with multiple devices and that would be the unit with the best chance for VR success.

As it stands Oculus, PSVR, and Gear VR are the best representatives of VR success. And if I had to guess which is most important in the here and now it would be Gear VR > PSVR > Oculus. However, which ones are most important to the future for VR it would be Oculus > PSVR > Gear VR.

Oculus is more than likely that device that will bridge VR across multiple platforms, so over it's the more important set especially since it's for an open source platform. If it can bridge from PC, to TV, to mobile, and more as more developers get time with it, and in another several years not only will it have more functionality, and more content across all forms of entertainment, it will also be priced more reasonably for consumer growth.

PSVR is important, because it has the potential to be the best selling, and be the first VR experience for the majority of consumers. The problem for global VR growth is that it's locked to the PS ecosystem, and that's what's gives it the best chance at current success, but also what prevents it from evolving into that Prime VR headset for everyone unless they open it up for more uses such as PC, TV, and mobile.

Gear VR is about to be popular by default, because it's being given away with every Samsung Galaxy S7. So it's going to be a lot of users first true VR experience. On top of that it's an inexpensive, but decent VR experience (Google Cardboard isn't good). Thankfully it's a decent enough VR experience that it can sell some people on the tech who might be interested in the superior VR from PSVR / Oculus. But on the flip side if most people think this is how all VR is (and MANY will) then they'll hold off on VR or simply pass on it, until shown a true VR experience.

[dcbronco]

@Kneon

Accessibility will change soon. The cost of a VR PC will come down with the next GPUs. AMD is believed to be launching a sub-300 dollar GPU soon. That will change quickly.

[donthate]

kneon:

But realistically, PS4 consumers are cheap consumers, many whom was pushed to adopt a PS4 based on $50 price drops and other incentives like bundles games/controllers. Are they really willing to pay $350+ or even $500 for a PS VR?

That 13 million PC users, they are used to paying $300+ for the graphics card alone, let alone the higher end CPU and other parts. For them VR is a fraction of the cost of their PC.

For PS4 users, the cost is the same or higher than their PS4! Apart from the supposed enthusiast and fanatics here, who will adopt this?

As soon as people start getting sick and nausea, while showing videos of this on youtube titled "How my mom/dad/sister/wife/child got sick playing VR" hits, that will definitely dampen the general interest other than the niche as well.

If you are looking at price as the only factor, then Google CardBoard is the best. It works with current smart phones, the content will be ultra cheap/plentyful, and the accessories can be as low as $10 to get started.

My bet is PC will be very healthy market, Google CardBoard will do great due to price, but PS VR will be tepid due to targeting wrong market i.e. the casual market isn't ready due to high price (and to some extent lack of quality and lasting content).

[dcbronco]

@Kneon

Exactly. The same people who wouldn't pay $600 for a PS3 are now willing to spend $500 on a VR headset. Yeah, right. The usual vocal minority. Sony felt the price of the PS3 held it back. Sony celebrated when they heard Xbox One would be $500. Now we are to believe they will celebrate a $500 peripheral.

Sony will subsidize PSVR. It will most likely launch at $399. But that will be at a loss. Which means they will not lower the price of the PS4 for a while and use the additional profits from the coming die shrinks to offset the loss. Which does work. A $350 PS4 gives them $100 per console in profit.

But it also gives Microsoft an opportunity to pressure them on price. Xbox gets the same shrinks and can drop to $300 and still make a profit every unit. If PS4 sales do slow, and they will as they close in on 80 million units, Sony will be forced to drop down in price and start to take some losses on PlayStation hardware. Gaming will still be profitable because of games and accessories, but does Sony really want to go back down into that rabbit hole again. They aren't out of it yet.

[darthv72]

For something like this to be taken seriously it needs the support from all angles. That means people who want VR to sycceed need to embrace all models instead of talk up one and put down the others.

The same should be true for gaming in general. Stop with the this vs that and try to be positive to all walks of gaming. To wish ill will on a game or platform because you dont care for it is just sad.

I say this before and it still rings true. We ALL enjoy gaming for one reason or another and as such we should ALL nod in respect to each other regardless of the systems we prefer.

#allgamesmatter

[kneon]

@donthate

A good chunk of those 13 million are not gamers. high end GPUs are also bought by people doing video/photo editing/CAD/3D graphics etc. I build a new edit machine every 2-3 years and it almost never gets used for video games.

I will likely be building a new machine soon that will be VR ready, but that's because I'll be doing VR development. The developers screw up the numbers even further. They will buy multiple VR devices but won't likely buy many games.

[Overload]

The question was if PSVR is the best chance for VR to succeed and YES is the answer to that question. Nothing against the other headsets and I hope they succeed, but there are around 2 million PC's are capable of running Oculus, while 40+ million PS4 can run PSVR. Plus, PSVR will be the least expensive on top of all that.

[Wallstreet37]

Lol i agree some ppl on here dont take the chance to comprehend what is being asked and just jump to answer due to personal feelings. A few thousand vive vr kits being sold in a week means nothing if that purchasing power doesnt continue. You cant look at first week sales and say yeahhhhhh its going to succeed. Out of them all PSVR has the betrer chance of "mass market" penetration and pushing vr forward to the masses.

[ninsigma]

I understand the question being asked and my answer is still no and wallstreet it's not about personal feelings. Psvr is hugely important for the casual gaming market like I said, but that market is not going to be reliable for constantly upgrading to the next vr solution just yet. Asking which has the best the best chance of success is like asking which is the only one we need in the market but having only one device that captures only one segment of the market is no way to guarantee success. Occulus and vive are focusing on the market that will more reliably keep upgrading. Both segments of the market are important and at this early stage I highly doubt any single device is going to see a huge amount more success than any of the others.

[Goldby]

While that is true @Overload, remember too that Galaxy s7 have the gear vr included with a preorder. While its not going to top the potential 40 million users of ps4 with psvr, it will help drive success for the entire platform. Vr wont succeed just because of psvr. It needs the gear, psvr, oculus, Vive and StarVr to be able to come to mainstream.

Movies for example may end up being best on the Star Vr because of the bigger FOV and resolution, but to be able to succeed people would need one of the other HMD that are cheaper to drive initial sales to get consumers into the market for HMD.

games need the psvr, oculus and vive to succeed. Psvr for the console version, and vive for the room track tech and oculus for their media delivery which will drive down costs.

Gear will moat likely be for experiences, tours for museums will pribably takw advantage of that stuff.

Anyways just my thoughts

[jb227]

I agree, the way I see it is the PSVR will be the best option for games, whereas the Rift & Vive will have more functionality & utility potential. The PSVR obviously won't be the most powerful of the 3, but it will be backed by all of Sony's first party devs & all console devs. It's a microcosm of each platform, the PC has more all around usage potential whereas consoles are geared solely towards gaming.

That said I feel like the PSVR has a lot of potential for other media as well, considering Sony is one of the premier content creators across film & television, they may be able to put out exclusive content in conjunction w/ their films and shows. I think a VR showcase for the next Spider-Man movie would have to be a foregone conclusion...imagine actually swinging through Manhattan w/ the power of VR as a sort of interactive trailer for the next movie? I think it's only a matter of time before these things happen, we've already got a VR Film Festival touring Europe this summer & we saw The Walk get that VR demo, and now we also have Panasonic making 3d cameras so the content is being created as we speak and those kinds of things can really go a long way in making VR a big deal w/ uses in every section of entertainment.

[DragonDDark]

I just want to know the price for that thing.

[ArchangelMike]

I'm willing ot bet that the price will be announced at Sony's PSVR conference on 15th March. http://www.stuff.tv/news/pl...

[DragonDDark]

I really hope so.

That or E3.

[Goldby]

I would guess at the psvr conference they'll announce price (im hoping 299-349) witha june release. And at e3 they announce june 21st release with NMS included. A 449 package will be available with HMD, Camera and Move controllers. And 99 package of camera and move controllers will be annlunced for a holiday release when more of the games are released for xmas rush.

My hopes at least

[Overload]

Yes. It will the cheapest out of the headsets and there are around 2 million PC's that are ready for Oculus, while there are 40+ million PS4's ready for PSVR.

[aquaticDonut]

If its actually affordably priced, it'll be the only one, so yes, it does. I honestly can't see a mainstream future for an accessory that costs almost the same as a playform people already call ridiculously expensive.

[slavish0]

I think yes for the casual market but it comes down to price

[maybelovehate]

I think the Mobile Market will have the most success. Just a much bigger market that is more affordable to get into.

[slavish0]

I think you are right but the quality will be better with software on psvr

[burza1982]

that need to be very high quality screen.
Many of my friends was using one of the first prototypes a all of them said, you feel sick, dizziness etc.
The higher quality picture then less problem with that.

[jukins]

Right now it would seem gearvr has the best shot at capturing mainstream attention. It's readily available and is being given away with samsung new galaxy s7.

After them depending on how Sony debuts the retail model they have a shot but they have to do it right. They need it priced right all inclusive from the start (sans ps4) including any new controllers, and almost as important they need content and a constant stream of it with variety.

If what I've seen so far is ready at launch or soon after with a few games patched to support I would preorder if the price is right

[kevnb]

No, too much money and not enough software.

[FasterThanFTL1]

If its a lower quality experience compared to PC focused VR and costs $500+, then the answer is no. But if it costs around $300-$400. It could be a great Mid-End alternative to the expensive High-End VR devices.

[deanparadise]

I honestly think PSVR will do well in the beginning. Once VR becomes more mainstream however, I imagine Oculus and Vive will pull far ahead.

Considering how many people were convinced to buy a PS4 for the relatively negligible performance benefit over Xbox One, just think how many people will be interested in the higher quality experience coming from Oculus and Vive.

Of course, I could be way off.

[OB1Biker]

I don't think PSVr is in competition with the other VR solutions at this stage. They have different market and even the companies said they work in a common effort to push VR.
Comparing PS4 and XB1 like you do is relevant IMHO since those actually have the same market and in direct competition in a similar range of price and plug and play product.

[Matology]

The Oculus Rift has the best chance of success, even if the price of PSVR is around £400.

There are plenty of PS4 owners no doubting that. But how many of those are owners are ready to shell out £400+ day one? Not the majority PS4 owners, your mum and dad owners that bought thier kid a PS4 for Christmas.

They will be mostly playing UC4, the next COD and FIFA.

PC gamers are used to the price for tech scenario, a half decent GPU and CPU is in the region of £400, £500, £600 mark. PC gamers build PC's to max out 1080 and beyond, and personally VR is about advances, something the PS4 sadly does not do well enough.

It has limits, those limits are fixed hardware that has already been maxed out and FPS lowered just to get to that number 1080P, this is the the Achilles heel for VR on PS4.

PC gaming is were VR will really shine. It will be expensive at first, all new tech is one day one.

[Miacosa]

The thing that will really move the needle for VR is when devices like the Samsung Gear VR become available on any mobile device and offers a competent experience. This in turn would lead people down the path of upgrading to gain better experiences from a PSVR, Oculus, and Vive.

[Majister-Ludi]

I obviously always go for the best experience. Not sure where this will be but I would guess the oculous or vive. Either way I will be waiting until I see some games. I haven't seen anything for any platform that makes me say that's a game changer. I have a weird feeling rift will be best but I could be wrong.

[IceKoldKilla]

That Samsung deal is killer though. It's a different product but dope if you have money to pre-order their phone. I'll go with PS VR in 5 years when it's smaller, cheaper and has proven it's worthy.

[level 360]

PSVR will be the most accessible on VR-experience.

Samsung Gear VR for the Galaxy S7 mobile device will be used by aspiring film makers for it's 360 degrees and VR capabilities.