Michael Pachter Predicts PlayStation VR & Oculus Will Succeed; PS4 Hardware "Humongous Value" for VR

Virtual reality is still moving its first wobbling steps, among the requirements for high frame rate and the still often unknown pricing for hardware, but well known Wedbush Securities Analyst Michael Pachter has a quite clear idea on which offerings are going to succeed.

[DarkOcelet]

Says the man who said the consoles are doomed!

The hypocrisy in this guy is mindblowing.

I don't know why we are still getting article about this guy when he clearly doesn't know jack about what he is talking about and his predictions rarely come true.

[DarXyde]

Pachter just destroyed VR.

[lelo2play]

"Michael Pachter Predicts PlayStation VR & Oculus Will Succeed"

This means PlayStation VR will fail. Everything this guy predicts, happens the complete opposite...

[joab777]

This means vr is doomed.

[TwoForce]

I hate this guy so much. He need STFU already. He said this and it completely opposite.

[medman]

Pachter has ruined the good times for us all....he's a damp squib for sure.

[Angeljuice]

"Sir Buzz Killington"

[uth11]

R.I.P. PlayStation VR and Occulus :(

[MartinB105]

He is right about PlayStation VR though.

[Clunkyd]

CRAP! That means it's going to fail. Ugh.

[lizard81288]

lol, yeah. 9.5/10 times, the opposite happens of what he says.

[itsjustexuma]

Please don't jynx it

[FoxyGotGame]

Lol Exactly, nothing against Michael Pachter, but after reading just the headline, I instantly thought these VR devices are doomed if Pachter believes they'll succeed /s

[Cyb3r]

He was right about the Wii U though

[TheCommentator]

Lucky guess.

[MRMagoo123]

A broken watch is right twice a day so they say .

[G20WLY]

Then it's possible he's guessed right this time too. I put no value in this guy's random guesses, but I actually hope he's right this time.

Early signs suggest he's going with the safest bet on this one. :)

[starchild]

Which means he can be right about this too. I believe VR will succeed based on my experiences using the DK1 version of the Rift.

[NatureOfLogic_]

Oh boy......

[JMaine518]

So VR will fail and the PS4 is a terrible value? Got it Pachter.

[Relientk77]

Pachter can you not

[Rookie_Monster]

When pachter said something, it usually turns out to be the opposite. He is like the anti-Nastradamus.

Hopefully for VR and Sony sake, he is actually right for once this time.

[Skate-AK]

Almost got it. His name was Nostradamus but you were really close. I would call him Patchtradamus haha.

[TheColbertinator]

He is the Nostradamus of the industry. Always blowing smoke~~

[Skate-AK]

Not quite. Lots of Nostradamus's predictions came true or were at least very similar, 100's of years after his death. Some might still have the possibility of coming true.

[GrubsterBeater]

If I also made thousands of vague predictions, chances are that a few of them will be true at some point in the future as well...

[MRMagoo123]

Lol nostradamus was so vague his predictions could be right or wrong about anything. There was never anything that guy wrote that was clear and obvious to any subject matter in history.

[uth11]

Nostradamus predicted nothing, he wrote a book of gibberish called Centuries that Nostradamus "experts" string together into what seem like predictions of current events and claim amazing accuracy. Yet if you actually hear any future predictions from these experts, they always fail. Nostradamus could only predict the past apparently! Lol!

[hesido]

I'm admiring the amount of informed knowledge about Nostradamus here on N4G.

Like many has pointed, he's only as accurate as how you can match the so called predictions after the fact.

[DivineAssault]

I hope he didnt just curse this by speaking about it.. Everything he says ends up being reversed.. I do believe PSVR will succeed if sony plays their cards right.. Pricing, media advertisement, and demo kiosks so people get blown away by it..

PSVR might be a smash hit like the wii and hit the world by storm if the price is right. Total immersion within the game worlds will be amazing.. Oh, and they need pornhub too lol.. Thats what moved all their other media formats.. Sex toys and lub will be in teenagers rooms around the world lol..

[Dario_DC]

Pre-order cancelled! PSVR is gonna fail now. Damn you patcher for always raining on everyones parade!

[S2Killinit]

I like what he is saying and agree with him, but i place very little value on the fact that he is saying it.

[Imalwaysright]

VR, we hardly knew ye...

[dillhole]

People still listen to Michael Pachter despite never saying anything of value.

[G20WLY]

We all hear him, but nobody listens to Pachter.

[fanboysmackdown]

Pachturd just gave VR the kiss of death.

[Masterchief_thegoat]

this clown say console is doom

[MasterCornholio]

-face palm-

I hope he didn't jinx VR.

[Immorals]

This is the first safe bet he's backed. Please don't out like the rest of his 'predictions'

[KwietStorm_BLM]

Well there goes virtual reality. Had high hopes, but it was short lived.

[ArnoDorian]

This guy jinxed the VR and Sony, I swear if it fails, i'm gonna file a lawsuit on this guy, since michael pachter's predictions turn out opposite,

[BlackPhillip666]

I'm using Oculus and Pvr and forgetting this fool said anything about them -_- bloody Pachter complete doom merchant.

[captainexplosion]

I had such high hopes for VR until this.

[captainexplosion]

Pachter's points actually make since. That has to be a first.

[Khronikos]

I think people have no idea what Pachter does. All does is make educated guesses from his position as an analyst in the stock/etc. industry. The meme that is starting about him is ridiculous. He is just another analyst. Gamers are so thin skinned it's pathetic. OMG he said something what is going to happen has to be the opposite now!!!? OMG. VR is dead.

No, in reality he just took some information with PS4 sales and said yeah VR could win here. He is probably right. He's been wrong and right plenty of times before. Stop reading NeoGAF so much.

[KwietStorm_BLM]

You're taking it way too serious if you think people are being serious.

[Ulf]

Okay, I believe VR will eventually succeed, but imagining that a $300 headset, with the equivalent of a GTX 750 Ti / R7 360 GPU can compete with a zillion headset options for gaming PCs with way meatier GPUs is just plain stupid.

VR will succeed on PC, first. It'll just be a gimmick on consoles, and Morpheus will tank, unless Sony allows their headset to be used on PC (which they won't).

Rendering stereo.. at 60-90 Hz.. at 1080p.. without deferred rendering.. with decent AA.. (all prereqs for good VR) is no joke, folks. The GPU in the PS4 is real nice for the price of a PS4, but... there's a reason the recommended Oculus GPUs (GTX 970, R9 290) cost about the same as an entire PS4.

Morpheus will succeed when PS5 releases, maybe. Or maybe if Sony lets Microsoft make Minecraft - Morpheus Edition. Otherwise... lets see the app that makes us prefer VR on Morpheus over Oculus or another PC VR setup, before we imagine it succeeding over competitors far more capable of pulling off good VR.

[Brettman2008]

And yet the hands on of games for PSVR have been mostly positive. The install base for PS4's will also be higher than suitable PC's so I would say that Sony has a greater chance of success especially at a lower price entry point.

[Ulf]

The hands on with Move were always very positive as well. They need good software to make it succeed.

Already Oculus has Minecraft and Elite going for it, along with the typical load of indieware. Sony has nothing other than gimmickware and a small subset of the indie titles that Oculus has.

They better bring it cheap, if they are going to succeed. People are not going to fall for the $300 headset + $100 Move controller pair trick, if there is no software to play on day 1, or even day 90.

[frankdrebin72]

Price is all that matters.
I get it honestly I do.
Average age of games matter also.
As a parent, there is no way in hell would I let my sons spend the hours they do on their console just now and let them have the same time with a mini tv strapped an inch from their eyes.
At some point you have to ask yourself the damage this WILL cause.
And don't even ask me for links,evidence, proof etc...if you have a job that involves sitting in front of a computer monitor all day, you will appreciate what I am saying.
Will VR succeed?
I for one would love it to, but the potential damage to your eyes is something that cannot be ignored.
Honestly ask yourself this, if you are a parent ,...do you feel comfortable letting your child have one strapped to their face for hours?

[G20WLY]

^Ulf, there were over 200 confirmed PSVR projects in development approximately a year before it is expected to release.

There have been articles lately showing gameplay trailers for dozens of these games. Eve Valkyrie looks really good for example.

Sure there are plenty of indies and demo-esque games, but that just comes with new technology as people get a feel for or try to demonstrate what the kit can do.

I don't think support is going to be an issue for PSVR. I'd imagine most of the quality stuff on Oculus will also be available on PSVR, plus 1st and 3rd party exclusives designed to make it one of the forerunning VR platforms.

It all looks good this far, even press and public reactions to play sessions. We're past 'hoping' at this stage and into 'expecting' VR (including PSVR) to do well commercially.

[Godmars290]

With tech its never been about specs, but accessibility. Betamax was the better format but VHS won out because hardware and tapes were cheaper. DVD trounced several other types of discs including Laser because of moves like the PS2 having movie playback helped in making it popular. HD-DVD vs BR might have been confused because of background corporate interest, but BR space advantage always gave it the lead.

And because PSVR is connected to the PS4, because its only one format versus the dozens coming to PC which will then confuse the average consumer who wont want to bother to upgrade their rigs, its going to be the most telling indicator of VR's success.

Edit:
Where are you getting this nonsense idea that PSVR doesn't have a majority of titles that Oculus is also getting?

[freshslicepizza]

betamax lost out because they could only hold 90 minutes of recording and vhs could 2 hours. it was one of the major reasons why movie supporters backed vhs. bluray also held more content compared to hd-dvd and offered better security that companies who are very pro-active to combat piracy like disney and sony studios wanted.

sony will also try and play hardball with psvr and go after exclusive content. watch and see games like no mans sky which by all accounts is delayed due to psvr. this is how consoles compete by creating exclusive content. oculus has their own weapon, it's called facebook. when you have that kind of financing behind you and that amount of untapped clientele who can use oculus with things like skype around the world the reach goes well beyond gaming. however it will be gaming that leads vr technology and oculus has the money to finance their own game studios or hire their own much like what console makers do to help promote the hardware. they will not allow it to fail. what should happen though is no exclusive content and all vr working together to get it off the ground and reach as many people as possible.

sony on the other hand has it's own issues, it's called the shelf life of a console and trying to sell an expensive peripheral to a mainstream market who does not want to spend a lot of money on hardware. by the time psvr comes out we will be midway through the lifecycle of the ps4. will the technology be good enough to carry over to the ps5? we all know how awesome they are at transferring over to new hardware and previously bought game support.

[Godmars290]

"they will not allow it to fail."

You mean like the PSV, PSTV and Move? The PSTV alone would be in better shape if it had had better media support. Instead it shoved out to die with even something as basic as Hulu needing a trick to put it on - something I've yet to figure out.

PSVR will win out over anything similar else because its simple and accessible in terms to the general market. Oculus will be the VR for PC elites willing to put up with upgrading and fine tuning needed to get the most out of it.

[freshslicepizza]

@Godmars290
"You mean like the PSV, PSTV and Move? The PSTV alone would be in better shape if it had had better media support. Instead it shoved out to die with even something as basic as Hulu needing a trick to put it on - something I've yet to figure out."

facebook did not buy oculus to have a one-off release and not support it. sony can absorb misteps like the playstation camera and playstation move because they are always moving forward coming out with new products that are always centering around their entertainment focus. whether it be about buying new tv's or buying the next naughty dog game. facebook bought oculus for a long term investment.

"PSVR will win out over anything similar else because its simple and accessible in terms to the general market."

that remains to be seen. console gamers do not have a history of supporting peripheral devices, especially expensive ones. publishers are also not too keen on big investments either for a product that does not have a 1-1 ratio of its users to sell to.

"Oculus will be the VR for PC elites willing to put up with upgrading and fine tuning needed to get the most out of it."

it will be aimed at the niche market, much like psvr. difference is unlike pc's the console has a shelf life that is just a bit better than a jug of milk. oculus will also be aimed beyond gaming and facebook has about 2 billion users. sony will try and put psvr into the hands of movie watchers too so we will see how that pans out.

[Godmars290]

PSVR will win out *if* and should VR, this iteration of it anyway, becomes popular because of the easier access the PS4 allows to the general market.

That versus the tech failing but remaining of interest to the PC crowd as a sub-genre.

[Ulf]

Gamers buy consoles because they cannot afford gaming PCs. What makes you think that they are going to double their investment, for some indie PSN titles, because an expensive ($300+) accessory merely exists? Without any show-stopping experiences, it doesn't matter how many indie demos and mini-games there are.

VR is notoriously difficult to get behind without experiencing it. I honestly don't think Oculus will have an easy time of it, either -- by the time VR succeeds, the PS4 will be too old and low-powered to be worth considering as a VR device, plain and simple.

Every other player has a major advantage over the PS4 -- Oculus has more, bigger game support, simply because its much easier to hit stereo 1080p at 60+ fps on a PC-grade machine; Steam has the same advantage, plus the Steam Machine *minimum* spec trumps a PS4; The various small PC VR companies are offering headsets at substantially reduced prices, and correspondingly low-quality hardware (60 Hz limit, high latency screens, mediocre optics), and will appeal to budget gamers more than the Morpheus due to price, etc.

Don't get me wrong, I believe Sony's HMD quality will be above and beyond any of the other devices, except maybe Oculus. I think their 120 Hz frame interpolation will be really great. They might someday rule the PC VR market, *if* they released the Morpheus for the PC. For the PS4, though? Nope.

Normally I am a complete console fanboy, and I still believe that console gaming, despite the relative weakness of the console hardware, is never going to be trumped by the PC... but in this case, I have to call the console VR experience bunk, compared to the experience PC gamers will get. It just won't rate as a good experience (compared to PC), and people just won't buy it for that reason, plain and simple. Only VR gimmick demos have been shown on the device, because the PS4 is only capable of creating good VR experiences out of gimmicky, fast-FPS, simple scene demos, and not real games. Sad but true.

Horsepower is a VR *requirement*, and the PS4/XB1 just plain don't have it.

[Godmars290]

"What makes you think that they are going to double their investment, for some indie PSN titles, because an expensive ($300+) accessory merely exists?"

Isn't Project Valkyrie going to be on the PSVR? Would expect No Man's Sky, Battle Zone and that shooting game would be enough to reward anyone who buy a headset for their PS4. That they aren't PSN titles. I've yet to see anything being offer by Oculus that's any better or not playable on PSVR. So don't know what you're talking about there.

Meanwhile VR on PC will never dominate because there's just too much diversity and complexity there. Its not just Oculus nor one PC brand or type that's relatively cheap easy and identifiable to the general consumer.

[kenwonobi]

Oh great. That's all I need is this guy jinxing it. It's almost sure to fail now. I'm just hoping this is the one time he guessed right.

[kaixxi]

Oh my this guy is always wrong, pls dont jinx it, we all want the vr platform to succeed.

[Hotabang]

stop making this guy relevant! The more we consider his words news, the more he speaks! stop posting "Pachter" shit here!

[FN4GM]

I couldn't agree with you more, unfortunately N4G loves clicks and controversy, in that order, so we will still have to keep hearing from this self righteous pompous arrogant clown who has no business in the gaming world.

[DefenderOfDoom2]

So happy Pachter has a weekly show again on Youtube!

[Tobsesan]

If we would listen to this guy, PS4 and Xbox One would be dead by now....

[TheTwelve]

Let's hope this is a "even a broke clock is right twice" situation.

[Picnic]

Or never right as a whole if it has a stopped date and year on it.

[corroios]

Noooo patcher what have you done. Vr is doomed, doomed i say

[ScorpiusX]

So Patcher sees the Oculus being a hit cool , cqan't wait.

[scark92]

Pach your bags and GO!

[ji3200]

Just think about how future Pay Per View events will be sold with VR. When you can have front row seats at the next big UFC event but in the comfort of your house. Same thing for concerts, Football/NBA/Soccer games.... This VR thing is going places, and not just in the realm of video games. Sense the REAL SIZE of the enviroment and objects are the main key point of VR, It covers most of your peripheral vision. Avatar and Matrix movies are the example what VR is. Don't forget that 3dtv is TV SCREEN and IMAX is just the screen which can't cover your peripheral vision like VR does. google and facebook is spending billions of dollar right now on vr tech so you know what that means.

[jznrpg]

Pachter is wrong with consoles are doomed then tries to go with what most already know that VR will succeed. NFL , Military , and others are already using it for training and it isn't even out commercially yet.

[PersonMan]

And 3D will be the next big thing... Oh wait...

[Picnic]

Unfortunately, I think it'll mainly be used for driving games, Minecraft like games and a handful of on rails horror games. The most genuine virtual reality for arcade purposes would be a TV that 360 curves round you whilst you sit in a a chair that can also 360 spin around. The average home can't compete - you'd be better off getting a big curved TV, playing at night in the dark close up to it rather than putting up with that weight around your head.

[Smokeeye123]

Pachter has the most obvious and safe 'BOLD PREDICTIONS' for the future.

Next he'll tell me that those new hoverboard things everyone are getting will continue getting really popular.

[Father__Merrin]

once psvr is released other consoles will fall behind seriously

[benji101]

VR will be delayed as it will lack real software support.

[AstroCyborg]

glad he said this because now it'll fail for sure

[GrimDragon]

Noooooooo!!! Why why did pachter have to open his mouth!? *flips table* dammit!

[zodiac909]

Pachter's time of the year to predict OBVIOUS bullshit, and get paid a nice sum of money for it.

[Orionsangel]

Oh then it's definitely failing. Patcher never gets anything right, haha!