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Get comfy with that console--you may have it for another decade

Globe & Mail writes about Mike Capps' prediction (reported in Forbes)that next-generation consoles could be as far away as 2018. From the story:

"Theoretically, a longer cycle may result in consumer savings; the hundreds of dollars typically spent on hardware every five years can instead be pocketed or invested in software-which is, after all, what the pastime of video games is all about. I'm keen to learn whether Sony or Nintendo had the foresight to build their machines with the durability to last seven, eight, or nine years (we already know that Microsoft's early Xbox 360 units, with their notorious Red Rings of Death, weren't made to last). If avid gamers have to shell out for additional current generation boxes to replace broken ones, the only advantage to a longer console life cycle rests with hardware makers."
Feemee - contributor
Published: 525 days 6 hours ago | Article | PlayStation 3 | Xbox 360 | Wii | Gaming
 
 

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PSWe60 - 525 days 6 hours ago
1 - Well played Sony
This decade timeline has always been Sony's plan. The 360 isn't built for 10 years and this is even more true for the Wii.

edit: Besides the PS3 isn't even close to reaching it's limit, and I'm not about to give up my console for a new one in 2 years. A long life cycle would only benefit gamers and developers.
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juuken - 525 days 5 hours ago
1.1 -
I agree.
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games4fun - 525 days 5 hours ago
1.2 - i can
confidently say i wont be buying a new console till 10 years i payed alot more than i usually do for the console and its games and i'll be damned if i pay all that money so quickly.

ps4 and xobx720 games cost: $70-$80??!?? if they do you bet i'm not going to be part of that till there is a giant greatest hits catalog then i'll buy a new console
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meepmoopmeep - 525 days 3 hours ago
1.3 -
yeah, i agree, i think the only platform this gen that's truly built for the long run is the PS3.

i would rather see longer life cycles than shorter ones.
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Tomdc - 525 days 2 hours ago
1.4 -
I can see sony releasing a new console in 2015, around 8 years after PS3. PS3 will still have its 10 year cycle but they will overlap by 2 years.
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ravinash - 525 days 1 hour ago
1.5 -
What is the standard lifespan of electronics these days?
about 8 to 10 years?
usually the parts like soldering, wires and board would have degraded over time and heat and then break down.
So it would be good to time the next gen console to come out around the time the old one breaks down. If it breaks down too soon, you can find your self needing to buy a second console of the same model before you get to upgrade.

Now look at todays models.
The Wii is a good little machine and not to over complicated. Plus has not had a reputation for breaking down.
Its big problem is power and how complicated the software can get.
Eventually people are going to run out of space for all those peripherals. so at some point your going to need to create better software to drive it. It would a stretch to get this model to last 4 years never mind 8.

360 has the power, but also has a reputation for breaking down.
It does not have the best quality parts so I would expect the people will have to buy a second replacement console before then Gen is out.

And of course Sony, they are a computer electronics company so know how to make a machine that lasts.
You can feel by the weight that its built well, and even runs quite.
Only time will tell if it last 8 to 10 year, but I think it has the best chance out of the 3.
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Bubble Buddy - 524 days 23 hours ago
1.6 -
If this comes true, Sony made a smart move.
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-EvoAnubis- - 525 days 6 hours ago
2 - This would be a good thing.
This console generation has a LONG way to go before we've pushed the systems to the limit (although I think the 360 is already really close). A longer time could only be a good thing. Besides . . . I really don't want to spend all that money for the upgrade anytime before 2014 or so anyway.
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TheExecutive - 525 days 6 hours ago
2.1 -
I dont know man, I really doubt the 360 is going to see a better looking game that gears2. I just highly highly doubt it. 2014 may be a little too far off for my liking. I could probably stand sony not coming out with a new console until 2012 but anything after that and its going to start looking pretty dated.
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dktxx2 - 525 days 6 hours ago
2.2 -
The 360 can do much better then Gears 2, but if the ps3 really does reach its potential anywhere in the near future, MS would have problems putting their games up against Sony's games. I think that Ms will place their next console when that starts to happen, but hopefully for them, they won't have to rush it.
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motts - 525 days 4 hours ago
2.3 -
I agree, the 360 is def. getting close to its peak graphically, but its not like that means it needs to go away. Until the ps3 starts churning out games that look like mgs4 or killzone2 consistently ms doesnt need to worry. If 3rd party devs start unlocking the ps3's potential however, then ms will prob start getting the ball moving on their next system. Right now the majority of games are the same on ps3 and xbox360 so ms has no need to change.

Sony clearly plans for the ps3 to be around for a while. its almost 2 years for the ps3, and only now to games seem to be coming out looking and playing how most expected. Before this fall i hardly bought games for my ps3, and aside from motorstorm and uncharted, no games seemed to really push the system. I would like at least 5 years with legit games being produced on the ps3. in my eyes, the ps3 'life' started when mgs4 was released and they announced this upcoming lineup of lbp, resistance2, killzone gowIII etc.
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TheExecutive - 525 days 6 hours ago
3 -
Well, we will have to see how the Wii "fad" goes. It may actually prove to be more profitable for ALL of the major console makers to hold off on a new console seeing how almost all of the profit is found at the $199 price point.

Yes, we have the Wii to thank for holding us hardcore gamers back. However, between both Sony and MS, Sony has the better chance of standing the test of time.

Last year I would have laughed at this article. However, looking at the price of consoles today it seems that neither MS or Sony is going to hit major price cuts for some time.

Of course this delaying hurts the hardcore gamer but thats about it. Unfortunately, as the Wii is proving, we are definitely in the minority.
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JEDI WOLVERINE - 525 days 6 hours ago
4 - Very hard to call..........
I think that the Wi has reached its technical peak allready - graphics wise.

The 360 will probably peak around 2010 and the PS3 around 2011 - both graphics wise again.

The consoles could last until 2018 but if one company is going to get the jump on others with regards to releasing a 'super console' then the other companys will be left behind somewhat......

Thus i think that when the next gen is released that all 3 will release within 18 momths of each other - my guess is around end of 2011 for first to be released.

Crysis already far outshines what the 360 and PS3 can do graphics wise (obviously on a monster pc).

So give it 3 years and pc graphics will start to make a mockery of this gens games - thats when the new consoles come out.........
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TheExecutive - 525 days 6 hours ago
4.1 -
I guess i dont see where the 360 is going to keep progressing graphics wise? The best looking game to date is a game that was released in 2006. Gears 2 will take the place of gears1 as the graphics king of the 360 but what then? Another 2 year drought until gears3? Mind you gears2 doesnt look a mile ahead of the original.

I dont doubt that the 360 has more under its hood, but who will exploit this? These problems lay at the door of MS because they depend entirely too much on 3rd party developers. These developers dont care what pushes a console they care about sales, thats it.

I believe when KZ2 comes out next february it will look better than anything that will EVER be produced on the 360. I think thats an entirely safe thing to say.

The hardcore gamer (most of the 360 crowd) will begin to rumble around late 2009 for a new console. The ps3 will just be hitting their stride and by christmas 2010 MS will be releasing another console. By winter of 2011 or 2012 we will see a new ps3; probably 2012.
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dktxx2 - 525 days 5 hours ago
4.2 -
MS needs someone to push their console. Epic is doing that but Gears of War 3 is not guaranteed to be published my MS, so if Epic doesn't see a point in limiting it demographic they're going to want it multiplatform. If the ps3 has a higher install base by then, MS may not want to pay the exclusivity fee. Bungie weren't able to do much with Halo 3, so I doubt that they'll push it too the max. And MS has a weak first party with no developer with the ability to push the limits. Because of this, the 360 might not ever reach its peak.
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games4fun - 525 days 5 hours ago
5 -
i can tell you one thing the first new console will come from msoft, the ps3 will catch up and they even admitted it, which means they expect to get outpaced and are already thinking of how to launch quickly ... again
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BiggDaddy311 - 525 days 5 hours ago
5.1 - Of coarse
MS have to come out first what are they just going to keep extending their warrenty. It is cheaper in the long run to just build a more relible console with a Blue ray drive. probably with a reg controller and motion and camera.
Graphics just can't get much better folks the next gen will see further integration, meaning HD drives, 250-500 gigs memory standard for HD downloads, 2g-10g ram and more features like Cameras and motion controls in the box. Graphics will be a little better but not so much that we will choose to upgrade souly for that reason. It will be all the features in the box.
6 nlvwithgms | 525 days 5 hours ago - User only got 1 bubble - Show
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iceman2885 - 525 days 5 hours ago
7 - Nothing would make me happier
That for this generation of consoles to go on for another 10 years (except maybe Nintendo releasing a non-motion controlled system in the period as well).

Why? because think of the all the money I could use to buy games that I wouldn't have normally bought. Using that money on games instead of sinking another 300 or so for a xbox720 and another 500 or so for a ps4. That's at least 800 bucks right there, about 13 more games over that period instead of on systems.
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iceman2885 - 525 days 4 hours ago
7.1 - seriously people...
What is there to disagree with in my above post. Stupid d*ckwads come around and throw random disagrees without providing any commentary of there own.

I guess the people who disagree with my post have something against having more money to buy more games with? I just don't know.
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beavis4play - 525 days 3 hours ago
7.2 - i was wondering the same thing iceman
i don't know about next ten years but sony wants a ten year console and that means ps3 lasts till 2016 and i'm cool with that. if this happens then devs will be using it to make games that are 100 times better than today and that boggles the mind. ( i was stunned by GOW2...i didn't think ps2 game could look that good)
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dcbronco - 525 days 2 hours ago
7.3 - @Iceman
I disagreed with you because it's not just about how money you have today. Microsoft is the company that will push quickly to the next generation. Not because of RRoD, but because of the rate that technology improves. If you look at what a game like Crysis looks like now and think about what games will be like in the next 3 years, you would realize that companies have no choice. Graphics cards today make the PS3 and 360 look weak and the cards two years from now will make the cards today look weak. When Sony talks about the PS3 being around for 10 years, they mean like the PS2. Sony will bring another console out somewhere during 2012. Again a year after Microsoft who will bring out a new console in 2010-11. Nintendo will release a new console around the time Microsoft does. The reason Sony will be a little later will be because they have the least money to put into the period after launch when the install base is low. Sony could bring out a "super" PS3 with multiple Cells in the 2010-11 range, but if the PS3 is beginning to make a lot of money, they might wait a little longer. The 360 will be around for 10 years just like the PS3. Remember that it's rumored that Microsoft has signed deals to allow 3rd party hardware manufacturing and they have pledged 7 years of support themselves. The 360 has been making money for a few quarters and Microsoft is willing to move on after 5 or 6 years and let licensing fees from 3rd party hardware manufacturers give them the rest of the money they invested on the 360. They had their reasons to drop the original. The 360 will have a lot more to show, just like the PS2. As developers spend time with a console, they learn how to used it more efficiently and that's why the PS2 could do GOW later on. The same thing applies to any console.
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badz149 - 524 days 23 hours ago
7.4 - @dcbronco
there is too many weak points in your argument. it's true that today's PC GPU power and what they are capable of are making the PS3 and 360 seems so weak. however, while it's true, can you please give me other games bar Crysis that have ever pushed GPU to the limit? I bet you can't, because there's simply none! and the games selling and being played the most on PC are MMORPG, which ususally have a pretty low requirements! how many games as gorgeous as gears, uncharted and MGS4 with a PC with only 512MB RAM? NONE!

it's true that devs are trying to produce their best game especially in terms of graphic but not many of them will push too hard because it costs too much! plus the fact that piracy is too rampant on PC, games like Crysis is like a rare gem which will not come out often. PC upgrades to the latest hardware will cost a fortune but console specs will stay the same for several years, which is favourable for the devs.

as for 360, I doubt it will stay for 10 years as I believe M$ will announce a new console by 2010.
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MC_KOOL_K - 525 days 5 hours ago
8 - What the ps3 is doing know is stunning
cod 4 / assassins creed / gta / etc

killzone 2 will be out soon and i guess killzone 4 will be the ps3 limit {ill say six years}
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ps3fosho - 525 days 5 hours ago
9 -
really ms launched a system that had a parts of like a pc and was easy to program for so they could get a head start and get a big gain in the next gen market before the ps3 and wii launched, They though it could last for a long time but turns out they were wrong and had a big hardware problem. Then even ms big line up couldnt out sell the ps3 in 07 then sony keeped it going and were out selling it in America. But now 360 doesnt really have a long year plan while sony though smart again by having a ten year plan for there ps3 which they also had for the great ps2 which dominated the console market. But there is no way any other system can stay out longer than the ps3 it is a beast i have left it on for like 3 day not one single problem ps3 is a monster that will go way longer than the 360 or wii
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gamerosity - 525 days 5 hours ago
9.1 -
I agreed with some of what you were saying ps3fosho, but please: Capitalization and Punctuation. Thanks.
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ps3fosho - 525 days 5 hours ago
9.2 - 5.1
sorry i just got into it and didnt want to stop with the little stuff
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Sitdown - 525 days 5 hours ago
9.3 - Ummm..
Just a thought....but the fact that you can leave your ps3 on for 3 days does not necessarily mean it was built for ten years. I think it is based on the ability not to be severely outpaced by technology, or having developers completely explore its capabilities in a short time frame. You will hear many stories of people's ps2s breaking......but look, it is still here years later.
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ps3fosho - 525 days 5 hours ago
9.4 -
im not trying to say that leaving my ps3 on for 3 days means it will last for ten years im just saying it can be on for a long timeand stuff like that which makes it a beast
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GiantEnemyCrab - 525 days 4 hours ago
9.5 -
Ah, I just love it when someone who doesn't even own the console seems to KNOW exactly how that console will pan out. I think you need to include "in my opinion" in your post because well I disagree with just about all of it.

The 360 has years of life left in it in my opinion.
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Sitdown - 525 days 4 hours ago
9.6 - @ps3fosho
Ohhh, okay...Well what made you try that.....or was it by accident? You know...come to think of it, I believe I left my ps3 on for like 5 days. I went down to visit my wife in Atlanta, and when I got back in town and got home...my ps3 was running. Games might or might not necessarily fuel the ps3 for 10 years....but some off the added functionality will definitely keep it in my home for that amount of time....especially since I have the 60gb model. The same probably for my wife's wii..and the 360.
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Panthers - 525 days 5 hours ago
10 -
That would be awesome news. Games take longer to develop now and that really extends the console life span because it takes longer to get games out. I mean there really are not that many huge games out so far. They are coming, I know. But still. Games are more expensive as well as consoles. For $400 I would like it to last longer than 5 years. I know that if the next generation comes soon, I wont join it for a while.
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TornRaptor - 525 days 5 hours ago
11 -
Regardless of when they are released i will be buying the PS4 and the Xbox3 day 1, It would be nice if they did last through a 10yr cycle though.
I won't be buying a Wii 2, unless they drop the casual cr*p that Nintendo are fixated on this Gen.
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Sitdown - 525 days 5 hours ago
12 - I don't know....
but this reminds of N64 days when it was all about how many polygons a system could push......I think we are getting dangerously close to where the difference in graphics will be less of a factor...and things will be based on innovation through and in gameplay. Gears of War 1 and 2 is not necessarily pushing the 360 to the limit.....switch up the art direction and you will see what I mean. For example look at the early 90s...in my opinion Mortal Kombat looked better than Street Fighter because of the art direction....not necessarily what the system was capable of. Anyhoo......if the time spent between system releases does decrease, along with me not necessarily feeling the hype from games...I fear that after all these years, I finally might have to lay down my gaming hobby. I got games still in wrappers....with the hope of one day actually playing them. I do know that I will refuse to trade or sell of any of my current generation consoles though.
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DarkCowMoo - 525 days 5 hours ago
13 - Saying the 360 graphic is at the best it can get it just fanboy words.
Seriously, that's BS. How the hack do you know what is the 360 or the PS3 limits? are you a game producer with any idea about graphic? no.
Give the 360 some credit, the PS3 might be more powerful, but FFS look at the PS2- It was a weaker competition than the XBOX, but God Of War 2 looks amazing.
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darkride66 - 525 days ago
13.1 - About Graphics
Indeed, we don't quite know yet what the 360 is capable of but we do know that so far it seemed to have peaked with Gears of War back in 2006. That's almost 2 years now and nothing's topped it yet. What gives? You would think with all that time the developers would be continuing to push the envelope.
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AclayPS3 - 525 days 4 hours ago
14 -
What's so funny about this is that the Xbox 360 wasn't built to last 10 years because: There's NO Blu-ray drive and because There's NO really advanced hardware inside of the 360 like the PS3's Cell Processor.

The Xbox 360 was a system built to last 5-6 years max in my opinion. Microsoft rushed the 360 out without thinking quality control or about the long run.

Developers will most likely max out the 360 this year (Gears 2) or next year, but PS3 games will continue to grow and grow because the PS3 has SO much untapped potential and because of Blu-ray.

The PS3 will easily last 10 years without a doubt, but compared to the PS3, the Xbox 360 is already outdated.
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Sitdown - 525 days 4 hours ago
14.1 - Outside of more space....
and the ability to watch bluray movies...how exactly will bluray make the ps3 grow more and more. Actually I sometimes wonder if I am doing my ps3, as a gaming console, a great disservices by watching so many bluray movies and putting wear and tear on the disc drive.
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dcbronco - 525 days 2 hours ago
14.2 - Was wondering how long it would take for Blu-ray to rear it's ugly head.
Please fanboys...stop with the Blu-ray nonsense. You have mandatory installs because of Blu-ray. For all the space, you are still getting 10 hour games. Name an exclusive that's more than 10 hours and is not a RPG. Nobody is buying Blu-ray movies, Sony said so. 200 million in sells for 6 months of a 25 billion dollar business is crap. Stop believing PR bull. Alls Microsoft has to do next generation is use a 2.5 500 gig harddrive and full game installs and Blu-ray is more meaningless than it already is. Microsoft is already making as much off of movie rentals as Blu-ray is in sells. And Microsoft's business is actually growing. Blu-ray is failing, will never be in a Microsoft console and will be gone or on life support around the time the next generation comes along. Blu-ray 2006-2011.
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xxBATTLECATxx - 525 days 4 hours ago
15 -
you also have to think about the features of the next console will be.
graphics be damned cuz a great game is a great game in the hands of the right devloper, but in terms of hardware, i dont see microsofts next BOX doing anything new. id imagine theyd put games on quad layer blu rays, a blu ray player, wifi standard, huge HDD standard, hdmi, wireless controller, and card readers. everything the ps3 already has. a lot of new features would probably just seem like xbox360.5 itll seem like a console built between generations (again)with no significant graphical leaps from the 360 for the first few years.
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motts - 525 days 4 hours ago
15.1 -
ooooh the xbox540.
ya graphics right now are pretty flippin good. For a system to get drastically better, it is going to need plenty of time and big hardware overhauls. Its going to consume a lot of time and money. I Think this will slow down ms and sony from wanting to upgrade anytime soon.
I know they said no BlueRay attatchmetns, Microsoft will prob. want to jump on board with blueray IF it continues to expand through homes like it is, without having to develop a whole new system that developers need to learn. They dont want to put themselves in a ps3 type launch. however they are doing find charging people to buy wifi and HDDs so i doubt u see anything of that nature, it would be a waste of money

god knows what nintendo will be doing haha
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KidMakeshift - 525 days 4 hours ago
16 - Uh, no
That's not how hardware works

Expect a new Xbox console by the end of 2010 and a new Playstation, Nintendo console by 2011
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jspc1989 - 525 days 4 hours ago
17 - my opinion is a humble one and that is just 3 words......
i dont care.

Honestly i cudnt giv a damn about the next gen at the moment. im too busy enjoying the games in this one, end of story, game over (so to speak lol).
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PimpHandHappy - 525 days 4 hours ago
18 - 2018 seems a bit far
but i can see the PS3 selling well into 2015

then again the world comes to a end in 2012 so all this doesnt matter!

Just hope Mag rules because it will last 3 years easy
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dcbronco - 525 days 2 hours ago
18.1 - You might have less time than 3 years with MAG.
Given Sony record with major releases.... actually considering how long it's taking to do LBP, MAG won't be out until sometime in 2012. Most likely in March, so you'll only have 9 months before the Aztec Gods kill us all.
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kingme71 - 525 days 4 hours ago
19 -
I'll be interested to see this November when the 3 year warranty on the launch 360's is due to expire and how MS will handle that. Beyond that, MS is going to have to deal with the next few years of complaints as more and more expire. Hopefully, newer hardware is stable so the system can last a good deal longer.
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Sayai jin - 525 days ago
20 -
What seems like cutting edge technology now, in even 4 to 5 years it will seem like last gen and techies will always be looking for the latest and greatest. I think Sony's 10 year life cycle would benefit those who are watching their budget and/or do not want fork out big buck every 4 to 5 years on a new console, but if money or spending were the real issue I do not think people would have brought a $400 or $600 consoles.

Game on...
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ElementX - 524 days 23 hours ago
21 -
I don't want decade-old gaming hardware. You don't see the N64 still around, do you? Technology changes, and I want to keep up with it.
22 kkod05 | 524 days 20 hours ago - deleted by mod -
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Guardian0fPeace - 524 days 17 hours ago
22.1 - How many offers did you have to go through?
I did this before from another program for my 360 back in 05, and it worked. I had to fill out 10 offers, 2 on page 1, 2on page 2, 6 on page 3, and that was it. I'm filling one out from another branch of the same one as before, but this time for a 360 elite + a $150 gift card to Bestbuy, for the same number of offers and all.
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